BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Dismissals:  Friday evening President Trump fired more than 4,200 Federal employees from the Treasury Department, U.S. Health Agency, Internal Revenue Service, and the Departments of Education, Commerce, and Homeland Security's cybersecurity division. Roughly 300,000 civil service workers have already been set to leave their jobs this year due to a downsizing campaign initiated earlier this year.   From the AgrInvest Commodities Team in Brazil: "The São Paulo market i

Tidbits Crude oil:  OPEC is meeting today to consider another round of production increases reflecting their expectation demand for crude oil will increase into the first part 2026 at the least. However, the EIA, most international banks, and consulting firms predict a crude oil surplus with expecting crude oil to go to $50 later this year.   Interest rate:  On Friday morning, there was a sudden change in probability of an interest rate change for the next Fed meeting on 16 a

Tidbits Basis: It has been dry in the Eastern Corn Belt since late July and before that in many places. That means the Ohio River is low and that means the Lower Mississippi is going to be low enough sometime this week that barges will not be able to be completely loaded and that means higher barge rates, weaker basis, which has already been factored into current bids. More than 50% of the water in the Lower Mississippi comes from the Ohio River. Venezuela & Oil: A large buil

Tidbits Yesterday at midday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the trade talks  with China in London were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night but said they could run into Wednesday. Later, he said the two sides have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between their respective presidents. ADM reports Trump is looking at rolling back the port fees  on China vessels scheduled to take effect in October. Dr. Cordonnier i

Highlights India said it attacked nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir Wednesday early morning. Pakistan reported at least three people died and 12 were injured. The attack occurred amid heightened tensions between the nuclear-armed countries in the aftermath of an attack on a Hindu tourist area in India’s Kashmir area in April in which 26 men were killed, but Pakistan denied that it had anything to do with the killings. A Pakistani military spokesman told broadcaster

Tidbits The markets are closed today for Good Friday. They will reopen normal times on Sunday. Why have soybean futures been surprisingly firm this month? Canola futures rose above CA$680 per mt yesterday, up $120 since 17 March, as tightening supplies compounded with robust global demand for vegetable oils spurred the rally. China’s 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal and oil makes canola seed exports to the U.S. very important for Canadian farmers. The U.S. is Canada’s top

Tidbits OPEC+  is reversing its production cuts with output set to rise by more than expected in May because they see continuing healthy market fundamentals. After cutting their oil production for more than a year, OPEC+ will add 411,000 barrels per day in May. The larger-than-expected production boost by OPEC+ added to the tariff-fueled recession fears to sink oil prices more than $5 per barrel yesterday. The White House stated U.S. imports of oil, gas, and refined products

Highlights CONAB ( Brazil’s  USDA) updated its production estimates yesterday (all numbers are million mts): Soybeans: 167.369, up 1.346 from last month (USDA 169) All Corn: 122.760, up 440,000 (USDA 126) Second crop corn: 95.515, down 533,000 (USDA NA) The basis for corn, soybean, and soybean meal in Brazil was firmer yesterday despite the higher futures prices.   In Argentina , the Rosario Stock Exchange has once again reduced its projection for the corn harvest by 1.5 mill

Tidbits March options expired  yesterday at the close. Corn and bean prices were lower, which usually happens on the expiration day for options. Next Thursday is the last trading day before first notice day, which means Wednesday and Thursday most likely will be down days for corn and beans and Friday will be an up day.   Argentina’s FOB corn price was down 10¢ a bu. this week for April and May shipments. We might start seeing Argentina competing with U.S. corn in Asia. In Br

Highlights There were rains of 2.5 to 3.5 inches across a wide area of Argentina’s crop land yesterday and more rain is expected this Sunday through Wednesday next week. AgRural reported yesterday Brazil’s  soybean crop was 23% harvested as of last Thursday, an increase from 15% last week. They say the second crop corn is 36% planted. Ag Resource estimates that 24% of the soybeans have been harvested and about 30% of the second-crop safrinha corn was planted across Brazil as

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Highlights At 11 AM Central time this morning, the USDA will release its monthly S&D. We sent the estimates to you as part of Saturday’s mailing. We expect the numbers to be friendly corn, negative for soybeans, neutral to friendly wheat. Brazil’s situation paraphrased from AgrInvest last evening: “Soybean basis for the export market is rising, especially for March shipments. Sales are increasing rapidly, but soybean stocks at ports are still low. Soybean sales by farmers thi

Highlights Crude oil  futures lost a dollar Thursday morning and closed about 40¢ lower after President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise U.S. oil production to lower energy costs. That statement unnerved traders despite Trump also said sanctions would be enforced and new sanctions applied that would eventually drop Iran’s crude oil exports to zero. Iran exported about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, up from 1.4 in 2023 and 900,000 barrels per day in 2022. With cru

Highlights China’s government and financial sectors returned to work yesterday after the Lunar New Year holiday. Equity and commodity trading was remarkably calm given all the tariff talk, but the yuan was weak. That most likely comes from the consensus that China’s economy is wounded by weak financial, perhaps an unstable political situation and cannot battle Trump nearly as strongly as it did during his first term. All of Asia remains fixated on China and its next response

Highlights Canada is taking similar measures in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's 25%  tariffs on its goods, Canadian Prime...

Highlights Despite many rumors and some “reports” Friday to the contrary, the White House confirmed in a press briefing tariffs  they will go into effect today. The Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, "The President will be implementing tomorrow, 25% tariffs on Mexico, 25% tariffs on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China for the illegal fentanyl that they sourced and allowed to distribute into our country which has killed tens of millions of Americans."   President Donald Tr

Highlights 247AG weather predicts South American weather will be wet in the north, where they do not want it and dry in the south where they do want wet weather until next Thursday when the following 7 days will be the opposite. This forecast by several weather outfits is what rallied corn and beans the past two days, but probably by tomorrow, the market will trade next week's expected change of weather. Argentina’s thirsty crops will get some water, but that forecast is very

Highlights As of Tuesday afternoon, the weather model  runs are showing the return of a wet pattern for Northern Brazil and dryer weather for Argentina and RGDS (South Brazil) for the 6-15 day range. That means more delay for the harvest of soybeans in the northern areas of Brazil, later safrinha corn planting and smaller Argentine crops.   Kory Melby said yesterday the second crop corn planting pace in Brazil’s Mato Grosso is the slowest since 2011 but similar to 2021. The 2

Highlights S&P Global published their estimates for US spring planting intentions for corn and beans. We added the past three years: Corn: 93.5 million acres, 90.6(2024), 94.6(2023), 88.2(2022) Beans: 83.3 million acres, 87.1(2024), 83.6(2023), 87.5(2022)   Trump said no tariffs will be imposed until 1 February and then only on Canada and Mexico.   The dollar index has lost 2 full points the past two days because tariffs were postponed or cancelled.

Highlights President Donald Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on Monday. A Trump administration official said Trump would issue a broad trade memo that stops short of immediate tariffs but directed federal agencies to evaluate U.S. trade relationships with China, Canada and Mexico. That news slammed the U.S. dollar lower by 1.28 and gave world stock markets a boost on Monday. The World Economic Forum was founded by Klaus Schwab 24 January 1971. It describes itself as a