After the settlement Wednesday, Alan Bonifas, our long-term technical consultant and our second full-service consultant who hit dead-on the lows and highs from 2019 to 2022, said his long term technical outlook shifted from a high this spring and a low into fall to either:
A high in the spring and low in the late summer or fall (like 2021 and 2022)
A low in spring and high in the late summer or fall (like 2019 and 2020).
Alan thought the July 22, 2022 lows on corn and beans and late August low on the wheat were the bottom of the price cycle, meaning the down move was complete with a price rally up into this spring, just like the last two years.
But Alan’s work did not narrow in on the date of the high as it has in past years. He has been patient since last fall, thinking the information would come together during the winter. But it has not yet.