Highlights
From a seasonal point of view, this rally in wheat may be the last one to test recent highs or make new highs as the seasonal trend turns down in 10 calendar days and 8 business days. This weekend is a three-day weekend.
Stock markets around the world are very strong as “everyone” thinks the Federal Reserve is probably going to reduce interest rates this year.
Soybean basis in Brazil reached the highest value of the season yesterday +60¢ for July shipment. Last year, the same offer was -150¢; July futures were $13.07 a year ago, $12.48 yesterday’s settlement, $12.50½ high.
Victor Martins says oversold domestic soybean stocks, increasing local demand for crushing, and China originating short-term shipment coverage = strong local basis plus limited supply from southern Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina beans are shifting to Brazil’s Paranagua port. Soybeans from the US PNW for August are getting close to Brazil offers.
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