BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights On 2 April, Trump applied an additional 34% reciprocal tariffs on China  added to the existing 20% duties already applied to Chinese imports. Together, they bring the total tariff rate to 54%, affecting nearly $600 billion in annual trade to combat currency manipulation, dumping (selling below the cost of production) of industrial products, and a host of other lesser offenses. China responded over the weekend with a series of countermeasures, including tighter expo

Highlights Often we have written and said: “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of that event.”  Yesterday’s market action demonstrated that axiom. For two months, the endless talk has been about many more corn acres and fewer bean acres. That is exactly what the USDA reported. Corn acres were up 5% from 2024, while soybean area was 4% lower. Corn closed higher in most contracts yesterday and beans were down 8 to 9¢.

The reports were: Neutral to Friendly Old Crop Corn Negative New Crop Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat 20 Minutes After the Report:...

Tidbits Yesterday, May corn  futures contract made a new low at $4.42 for “the move” (meaning since the recent high was made at $5.18¾ on 19 February) and then closed higher for the day. Technicians call that a “key reversal” and regard it as a trend changer. While very encouraging, nothing is 100% in this business.     Jason Britt  is President of Central States Commodities. He wrote yesterday:   "Brazil’s corn better get more rain than this before the dry season actually st

Highlights The USDA reports were to be released at 11 AM Central Time yesterday. That was when corn started going down and beans began moving higher. Traffic on the USDA website at report release time is so heavy, us peons must wait a few minutes to access the report. Yesterday, we waited 10 to 12 minutes as corn continued to fall. That is when the USDA issued a statement on its website that technical difficulties led to a delay in the report being released.   What did that m

These are Benson-Quinn's USDA Numbers. We have no reason to think they are not actual USDA numbers. If they are the actual numbers, some...

Highlights The US corn crop is 95% planted vs. 91% last week. Corn is 85% emerged vs. 84% average. It is rated 74% good or excellent, 1%...

Highlights Crude oil prices dropped $2+ yesterday when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he is ready to suspend hostilities in the Gaza Strip for six weeks, but will not agree to a complete ceasefire. He said there are many details that need to be worked out. That means a cease-fire will probably not happen. Lowe crude oil prices mean lower prices for biofuels and that means lower prices for corn and beans.   Corn planting was reported to be 91% complete vs.

Highlights Deputy Assistant to President Biden for National Security Affairs, Dalip Singh, said the United States may introduce a trade embargo against Russian goods. “The history of the embargo is not great, but as Russia completely transforms its economy into a factory for the war machine, we will come to a point where that is what we will get,”  Singh said. “The military-industrial complex in Russia may now be stronger than before the outbreak of hostilities.” Singh called

Highlights From a seasonal point of view, this rally in wheat may be the last one to test recent highs or make new highs as the seasonal trend turns down in 10 calendar days and 8 business days. This weekend is a three-day weekend. Stock markets around the world are very strong as “everyone” thinks the Federal Reserve is probably going to reduce interest rates this year.   Soybean basis in Brazil reached the highest value of the season yesterday +60¢ for July shipment. Last y

Highlights Planting progress: The Nation’s corn crop is 49% planted; the 5-year average is 54%. Soybeans are 35% planted; the 5-year average of 34%. Spring wheat is 61% planted; the 5-year average of 48%. Cotton is 33% planted; the 5-year average of 31%. Sorghum is 26% planted; the 5-year average of 26%. Rice is 84% planted; the 5-year average of 72%. Sugar beets are 92% planted; the 5-year average of 65%.   Winter wheat crop condition is the same as a week ago at 50% good/ex

Fees As prices have firmed since February 26th, many of our clients have had conversations with merchandisers about marketing tools. From Nebraska to Upstate New York, there has been a big move to add or increase fees to initiate HTA contracts. For many years, some merchandisers had a service fee of 1 to 4¢ per bushel for HTA contracts. Many merchandisers who never charged HTA fees in the past are now and many of those who had been charging HTA fees upped the fees to as much

Highlights Some rain came into the forecast for Russia’s wheat crop which triggered profit-taking after the big gains last week. Expected rain amounts diminished as Monday turned into Tuesday.   As expected by the market, the nation’s corn crop is 27% in the ground and 5% ahead of the 5-year average.   Soybean planting progress is 18% complete versus the 5-year average of 10%.   The spring wheat crop is 34% complete versus the 5-year average of just 19%.   Sorghum is 19% plan

Tidbits Yesterday’s US retail sales for March were up 0.7%, 0.4% stronger than the market expected. Retail sales for February were revised higher to show sales rebounding 0.9%, which was the largest gain in just over a year, instead of the previously reported 0.6%. That pretty much killed any chance of any interest rate cuts in 2024, much less three of them as the market had been expecting a few months ago.   Today's economic numbers from China included GDP through the first

Highlights Corn planting intentions were 1.74 million less acres than the market expected. Corn inventory on March first were 80 million bushels less than expected. Are those numbers a decisive game changer for the corn price outlook? Yes.     If the market had priced in the expected acres and inventory, which logically, it had, we can immediately take 80 million bushels off the old crop carryout for the past three months due to strong feed use and take another 160 million of

Highlights The crop progress report was supportive for wheat, but corn and bean planting progress was 1% more planted than the market expected, so a bit negative for prices. The national numbers: Corn: 49% planted vs expectation of 48%; the 10 year average is 42% planted. Beans: 35% planted vs expectation of 34%; the 10 year average is 11% planted. Spring wheat: 24% planted vs expectation of 28%; the 10 year average is 38% planted. Winter wheat: 29% rated good or excellent; t

Highlights No bank failures yesterday; no rumors of bank failures and commodities had a good day. That confirms the sell-off from the day Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed on the 10th of this month until last Thursday was 95% fear of a banking system collapse and 5% due to all other news. However, late last evening, rumors were the Charles Schwab brokerage and investment firm is having some financial woes. After the stock lost 25% of its value the past two months, their balan

Highlights After this Friday’s close, the agriculture futures will be closed until 8:30 AM Central Tuesday. Today is the day your July basis and long July futures need to be cashed out or rolled to avoid any chance of being assigned a cash grain delivery on a long July futures contracts. Holland’s government closed dozens of farms and cattle ranches to reduce nitrogen by 30%. Angry farmers block the nation “everywhere.” Soon hungry consumers will join the farmers. Corn/Soyb

Highlights The weather will move corn and beans prices higher. Corn probably will not make new contract highs, but that $7.50 area will be tested by July 6th (probably sooner) as it was last last Friday at $7.49¼. Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey will meet in Istanbul next week to work on a grain trade solution. Market thinks this meeting will get Ukraine’s old and new crop wheat into the world marketplace. The market had priced that wheat out of the world S&D. India’s food min

Highlights Ukraine has established a route through Poland and another route through Romania to export grain. The problem is Ukraine’s rail system operates on a different gauge than Poland’s, so the grain has to be transferred to different trains at the border where there are not many transfer or storage facilities. Grain to Romania involves transport by rail to ports on the Danube River and loading grain onto barges for sailing towards the Black Sea port of Constanta, a comp