Highlights
Today at 1 PM Central the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about an interest rate cut. The market has priced-in a 35% probability of a 25 basis point cut (¼%) and 65% probability of a 50 basis point (½%) cut. We think the market is overly optimistic based on the facts of inflation versus job creation. If the Fed wants to play politics, they will go with a half percent cut or maybe a 75 basis point cut, which would be bullish commodities and the equity markets, but bearish the bond markets.
The market has been anticipating this interest rate cut for so long, it is entirely possible we may see stock and commodity prices decline after the announcement in the classic “buy the rumor and sell the fact” because the expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event. That may have been the reason corn and beans were higher yesterday even though harvest is picking up speed in North America and there is some rain falling in South America to allow Southern Brazil to get started planting.
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