BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Yesterday, November bean futures were up 4¢, January beans were up 1½, March beans were down ¼, and May beans were down ¾¢. Corn and wheat had similar action, but not as pronounced. Meaning the spread is going up and that is bullish market action. With November soybean deliveries beginning 8 days, it looks like the big grain companies want soybean deliveries. The FSA  reportedly will reopen offices today to process ARC/PLC payments, farm loans, and disaster programs.

Tidbits Farm aid: The U.S. Republican farm-state lawmakers urge the Trump administration to issue autumn farm aid by year-end due to low crop prices and a trade war. Four lawmakers are in talks with USDA and other officials about an aid package, ideally by December. Senator John Hoeven cites a similar $23 billion payout during Trump’s first term to offset China trade losses and suggests adding aid to a spending bill; he says farmers need help soon, but by year-end is acceptab

Tidbits Soybean crush:  The USDA July soybean crush report will be issued tomorrow. It is expected to be up 7.2% from a year ago at 207.2 million bushels, the largest July crush on record and 5th largest of any month.   India-Pakistan:  More than a million people in Pakistan have been displaced in the Punjab province as the worst flooding there in four decades caused havoc in hundreds of villages and submerged vital grains crops. Torrential monsoon rain and neighboring India'

Tidbits Monday is 1 September, Labor Day. After trade is complete today, no ag commodities will trade until Monday evening. Crude oil will trade normal hours Sunday evening through Monday with a trade date listed as 2 September. Therefore, Monday and Tuesday crude oil trading will both be recorded as one trading day, Tuesday 2 September. The U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q2, up from the 3% estimate, helped by stronger consumer spending and a notable upgrade in bu

Tidbits A Chinese commerce  minister is scheduled to visit the U.S. and talk to trade deputies. While this is not part of the ongoing negotiations, it is seen as a goodwill gesture. The human case of screwworm  reported this week by U.S. health officials is the country's only one so far this year and poses no risk to the farm sector, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official said on Tuesday. Crude oil was lower yesterday, despite the Ukraine conflict and its impact on Russian

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA reported the sale of 228,606 mts of new crop corn to Mexico. U.S. soybean  farmers, led by the American Soybean Association (ASA), urged President Trump in a Tuesday letter to secure a trade deal with China that delivers substantial U.S. soybean sales, warning of dire long-term consequences if China remains a major buyer of Brazil and delays purchases from the United States. China is the world’s largest soybean importer and it ha

Tidbits Crude & palm oil:  India’s top crude refiners did not purchase any crude from Russia last week after President Trump threatened secondary tariffs on the buyers of Russian products. However, alternative crude sources were so few, the Indians decided to off-load more than 3 million barrels of Russia’s flagship Urals grade over the weekend. Bloomberg reports that Indian Prime Minister Modi did not instruct local oil refineries to stop purchasing Russian oil and did not m

Tidbits The U.S. GDP  for the second quarter at 3%, market expected just 2.3%. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. For the first time since 1993, two Federal Reserve officials dissented from the majority decision out of total 11 votes, advocating for a rate cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, broke with the majority. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged

Highlights India said it attacked nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir Wednesday early morning. Pakistan reported at least three people died and 12 were injured. The attack occurred amid heightened tensions between the nuclear-armed countries in the aftermath of an attack on a Hindu tourist area in India’s Kashmir area in April in which 26 men were killed, but Pakistan denied that it had anything to do with the killings. A Pakistani military spokesman told broadcaster

Q&A: Soybean Oil Chad asked: "Is soy oil as bullish as what some folks think it could be?"   No. Three years ago this week, May 2022 soy oil futures settled over 90¢ per pound and traded over 91¢. It was happy days for soybean and corn growers as construction had already been booked and many construction projects were well underway to nearly double the U.S soybean crush capacity by 2026 to produce enough soy oil to meet the biofuel demand that would need every bushel of soybe

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to

Tidbits Corn was hit hard yesterday by the expected increase in 2025 acres, improved weather in South America, and first notice day for deliveries on March futures, all of which is old news. Improved weather for soybean harvest means more safrinha corn will get planted and Argentina’s dry areas will get a drink, but that does not change the fact the world is short of corn. After Friday’s price decline, we were surprised to see corn so weak yesterday. Soybeans traded to the bo

Highlights We have reported many times the past year that the world has consumed more wheat than it produced the past four years. Not so anymore. The USDA changed the S&D situation for the 2022-23 marketing year to 789.89 million mts of production and 789.58 million mts of consumption. This marketing year wheat production is projected to be 793.79 million mts and consumption 803.72 million mts. So, this year will be the third consecutive year of reduced carryover and fourth o

Tidbits Yesterday, March corn  traded over $4.60 for the first time since late June. South American weather is not improving, but make no mistake, the South American soybean crop  will be overwhelmingly large. The USDA is likely to increase its Brazilian bean production estimate on Friday. It is also reasonable the USDA will reduce corn production in the U.S. and world wide.  Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders Report ( COT ) showed managed money holds the largest net long corn

FinCEN Reports Yesterday we reported that the U.S. Court of Appeals on Monday reinstated the 1 January 2025 deadline for farmer corporations and limited liability companies to file Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI) reports as required under the Corporate Transparency Act.   We had two clients send us the U.S.Treasury FINCEN Alert providing guidance to avoid BOI scams. The document states there is no requirement to file BOI reports “at this time,” but no date is included

Highlights There is another tropical storm that will likely become a hurricane in the Gulf to disrupt crude oil production.   Both wars escalated a bit more yesterday. Israel said their air strikes hit 1,300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where health officials said 356 people were killed and 1,246 people were injured yesterday. The Biden Administration announced an additional 40,000 US troops to the northern border of Israel.   Growth in India's business activity slowed to a

Highlights Monday’s corn and bean trade will most likely be dominated by weekend harvest yield reports. Here is a start:   Dave in Northeast Illinois: "We have cut about a third of our beans; they are just not there, period. Yes, everyone has that one good field. We have cut more mid-40 beans than over 50; 9 to 10% moisture."   Jason Britt, President of U.S. Commodities in Kansas City: "Hearing more soybean yields that are "disappointing". In no way a disaster, but the poor f

Highlights Today at 1 PM Central the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about an interest rate cut. The market has priced-in a 35% probability of a 25 basis point cut (¼%) and 65% probability of a 50 basis point (½%) cut. We think the market is overly optimistic based on the facts of inflation versus job creation. If the Fed wants to play politics, they will go with a half percent cut or maybe a 75 basis point cut, which would be bullish commodities and the equity mar

Highlights Nothing in yesterday's numbers changed our outlook for prices in 2023. On yesterday’s reports, USDA did: Reduced Argentina’s corn crop by 5 million mts to 47 million and left Brazil’s corn crop unchanged at 125 million mt, the net change was pretty much expected. Reduced Argentina’s soybean crop by 4.5 million mt to 41 million and left Brazil’s corn production unchanged at 153 million mt. Raised Australia’s old wheat crop 1.4 million mt, to a record 38 million,

Highlights Adani Group is an Indian multinational conglomerate. It was founded by Gautam Adani in 1988 as a commodity trading business. The Group's diverse businesses include port management, electric power generation and transmission, renewable energy, mining, airport operations, natural gas, food processing and infrastructure. In April 2022, Adani Group capitalization moved above the US$200 billion mark. Hindenburg Research LLC is a New York investment research firm with a