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Tidbits, Crop Conditions, ENSO, Export Inspections 6/18/24


Agrinvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning comments:

"Basis FOB Brazil and CFR China dropped quickly last week. Over the last 30 days, the roller-coaster of basis in the CFR China market has been intense. China is covered more than 80% of July shipment, but less than 15% for August. Sino is rotating stocks. A new soybean auction was announced for this week (990,000 tons). More trades were reported out of Argentina and the US Gulf during the week, but numbers are not impressive, 2-3 out of ARG and 6 out of the USA.


Once again, we have two markets: an expensive market dominated by Sino, rotating its stocks in Argentina and the US, and Brazil, where private crushers keep buying in the spot market, trying to not catch the falling knife. Soybean farmer selling in Brazil closed the week at 2.4 million tons (old crop), 1 million above last week. The total farmer selling is close to 64%, 2% above the last year. Origination costs remain above export levels, and more export traders are talking about the switch to the corn program at northern ports in July. The soybean and soymeal programs in Brazil remain remarkably large, despite the poor margins and all the uncertainty brought on by the MP (members of parliament)."


Yesterday in China, the price of corn was up 9.1¢ a bu., soybeans were up 4.6¢, and wheat was unchanged.  


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