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Tidbits, Banks, Diesel, Basis Lock-In, Export Inspections, Markets & Rain Days Update 3/21/23


The stock value of First Republic Bank (FRB) slid to an all-time low yesterday after S&P Global lowered FRB’s credit rating for the second time in a week. FRB has moved to the top of the list of “most likely to fail” banks after Credit Suisse was absorbed by Switzerland’s largest bank. FRB was second on that list the day SVB was closed by regulators. Since then, FRB has been extended quite a few “lifelines” and should be much less likely to fail now than it was on March 10th. Executives from major banks continue to discuss other actions to shore-up California’s FRB.

The international rating agency Moody's lowered its outlook on the US banking system from stable to negative. They said that they expect the Fed to increase the interest rate to the point the US economy will fall into a recession later this year. It is possible the people running the Fed may want to cause a banking collapse, but we doubt it.

China exported an average of 2.27 million mts (not barrels, mts!) of diesel per month the first two months of 2023. In 2022, China exported an average of 210,000 mts for 12 months. That is a ten-fold increase! It is why it will probably pay to wait to forward price any more diesel. China also added to its reserves 270,000 barrels per day of crude oil or refined products during January and February.

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