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SA Grains, Put Options, Markets & Rain Days Update 04/18/2022

Highlights


Two Libyan ports have stopped loading crude oil due to protests calling for the Prime Minister to step down. National Oil Corp. on Sunday declared force majeure on loadings of about 130,000 barrels a day. Soybean acreage growth in the USA since 1980. Look at the Dakotas! https://twitter.com/i/status/1515100399975419904

 

Kory Melby is a former Minnesota farmer who immigrated to Brazil about 22 years ago and has become a consultant for everything agriculture. He wrote this yesterday (17 April 2022):

Sept 18th, 2018 November soybeans made a low at 8.12 per bu. At the time, the USA had one billion bushels of soybean carryover and China was sucking Brazil dry as quickly as possible. (Peak Pessimism)

I would think in the next 60-70 days, we should be reaching "Peak Optimism".

By June 18th, 2022, 45 months will have elapsed since the 8.12 low. November beans are toying with 15.20 per bu and the recent high has been 15.55 per bu.

The 2008 high in Nov soybeans was 16.36 per bu on July 3rd, 2008. 2022 is 14 years from 2008. A "doubling" of the 8.12 low is 16.24 per bu. The 2012 high in SX beans was 17.89 per bu. Are we headed there again?

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