Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Thursday's USDA’s bean acres of 90.995 million project a US bean carryout over 400 million with a trend line yield of 51.5 bpa. Old crop bean carryout is projected be 285 million bushels. Corn acres of 89.490 million with a trend line yield of 181.0 bpa projects the new crop corn carryout would be the same as the old crop. A minor problem with math is we have never had a corn crop yield more than 177 bpa. The corn/bean ratio (how many bushels of corn does it take to equal the value of one bushel of soybeans) took a dive the past two days, falling to 2.04:1; it was 2.2:1 on Wednesday. A ratio of 2.4:1 means it is a tossup to plant corn or beans from a profit standpoint.
Secretary Vilsac is not at all pleased that the USDA gives "big bucks" to farmers with “subsidies and handouts” and farmers do not fill out surveys. Therefore, the Planting Intentions survey will be done again in April to get more realistic numbers.What we have here is a failure to communicate.
Editorial comment: It is more USDA's failure to be honest about the numbers than farmers not filling out surveys.