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Last Comments Before USDA Reports 6/30/22

The expectation of an event will move the market more than the confirmation of that event.

Buy the rumor and sell the fact,

Sell the rumor and buy the fact.

The expectation is today's numbers will be bearish and the weather will be great. That is why the heavy selling the past six trading days.

Of course, the numbers might be bullish, but let's say they are as expected. What will the market do?

All those who were short (sold) will say, "I knew it! That is why I sold it!"

And then, they will take profit. That means they will be buying futures.

They sold the rumor and they will buy the fact.

It is possible the reports will be more bearish than even the market has priced? Yes, but the chances of that happening are very small because the crops are not made and the market knows we could still have a crop disaster.

The market has developed a tremendous fear of these June 30th reports and with good reason; 2019 comes to mind. But that extreme fear has pushed corn and bean prices to a level not justified by the facts.

It was just a few weeks ago when fertilizer shortages, inflation, high input costs, rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine, strong basis, exceptionally profitable crush margins, export demand, the La Nina and very tight carryovers had people talking about $20 beans and $8 corn.

Guess what... Thirty minutes after today's reports, that is exactly what the market will be talking about once again.

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