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Global Grains, Broilers & Ethanol, Markets & Rain Days Update 03/17/2022

Bangladesh reduced its import duty in palm and soya bean oil by 10%.

The Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points (one quarter of a percent) and said more increases are coming.

The last time inflation was in the 7 to 8% (1982) range like it is now, the Fed Funds rate was 13% and thirty year fixed mortgages were 17%. After yesterday’s rate increase, the Fed Funds rate is now 0.25%.

India is pushing hard to get their extra 6 to 8 million mt of wheat sold before prices drop substantially.

May corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is about $11.45 per bushel.

It might actually rain this week in Kansas, Eastern Colorado, Oklahoma and the Texas Pandle. The folks there might even find a blade or two of wheat greening up by Monday.

Allendale's survey for planting intentions of farmers in 27 states was conducted from Feb. 28 through March 11. The results were released yesterday:

92.421 million acres of corn, above USDA’s Outlook Forum of 92.0 million & below the 2021 corn acreage of 93.357 million.

89.281 million acres of soybeans, above USDA’s Outlook Forum of 88.0 million & above 2021 bean acres of 87.195 million.

48.892 million acres of wheat, above the USDA's forecast for 48.0 million & above the 2021 planted area of 46.703 million acres, which was the highest acreage in about 12 years.

Winter wheat: 34.620 million

Spring wheat: 12.450 million

Durum wheat: 1.822 million

 

Yesterday morning the market was expecting a definitive statement that peace was at hand in Ukraine. Most commodity prices were sharply lower.

A few hours before noon yesterday, the Financial Times posted:

Breaking news: Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal.

Twenty-six minutes later, Ukrainian Government news reported:

Ukraine agrees to only one of the 15-point Russian peace plan. Fighting continues wherever Russian military is present.

With that news from Ukraine, markets turned higher about noon, but wheat could not hold the gains.

The Snowflakes in the media just cannot report the truth about war. It is ugly business. The only people who want this war or any war to end are the people doing the fighting, their families and all the civilians in Harm’s Way. The sad truth is everyone else in the world wants the war to last as long as possible. War consumes equipment and supplies far more than any of us can possibly imagine. Businesses in every country in the world except perhaps combatants, are making money hand over fist. Ukraine’s “friends” are giving Ukraine just enough supplies and equipment to keep them in the war, but not enough to defeat the Russians. The countries supporting Russia with supplies and equipment are doing the same thing. Everybody is making money outside of where the fighting is.

If the Russians get the upper hand, Ukraine’s friends will increase the supplies, weapons with greater capabilities to stabilize the balance of power, but not enough to end it. If the Ukrainians get the upper hand, Russia’s friends will ante-up and Ukraine’s friends will back away.

Why did the US fighting in WWII end in 3 years and 8 months? US citizens were scared they would soon be speaking German or Japanese. St Louis, for crying out loud, had a black-out for years with enemy submarine watches 24/7 for years! When a person was inducted into the military, their contract ending date was "for the duration", meaning until you are dead or victorious.

This war is not going to end anytime soon. But the Snowflake media will keep reporting peace is just around the corner while the money people round the world do their very best to keep the gravy train on the rails. Respect the seasonal trends; they will prevail, but don't do any panic buying or selling. Be patient, corn and beans will go higher and wheat will go lower by June.

 

Broilers & Ethanol Update

Last week:

Broiler egg set was up 1% more than the same week a year ago.

Broiler egg hatch was up 2% more than the same week a year ago.

Average daily ethanol production:

1,026,000 barrels last week.

1,028,000 barrels the previous week.

971,000 barrels the same week a year ago.

1,035,000 barrels the same week two years ago.

Ethanol inventory was 25.945 million barrels compared to 25.271 million barrels the previous week.

 

Market Data

This morning:

Crude oil is at $97.90, up $2.86

The dollar index is at 98.28, down 0.34

July palm oil is at 5,951 MYR, up 36. The contract high was made March, 9th at 6,531 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton is at $102.54, down $0.09 per cwt. The contract high was made February, 10th at $106.36 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

July natural gas is at $4.848, down 0.032. The contract high was made March, 7th at $5.270. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

July ULSD is at $2.9301 per gallon, up 0.1013. The contract high was made March, 9th at $3.7675. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.

 

Rain Days Update

Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 87°F with 0 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 95°F with 0 inches rain. Salto high temperature 93°F with 0 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 1.77 inches, 75 to 92°F. Cordoba 0.83 inches, 68 to 88°F. Salto 1.11 inches, 68 to 87°F.

The Western Corn Belt has 1 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has same number rain days as yesterday.



Explanation of Rain Days


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