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Corn, Highlights, Markets & Rain Days Update 6/23/22

Highlights


To us, the weather forecast for the next 14 days indicates beans and, especially corn, should have a dominating rally to test last week’s highs. However, July options expire Friday, which is always a negative factor for futures prices and, admittedly, the weather forecast 10 days out is cooler with a somewhat better chance of light rains. However, there are many days of hot and mostly dry weather in to the first week of July. There will be short covering before this weekend for corn and beans. Take it to the bank. Wheat, on the other hand, ideal harvest weather, bearish news from the yields and from Black Sea... Prehedging pressure on Friday could easily drive July and September wheat down another 50 cents.

On June 30th, the USDA will issue its planted acreage report. It is the most important USDA report of the year because, once the crop is planted, acreages do not change. Weather and yields change, but acres planted to the various crops do not change. If one expects bullish acreage news and it is the opposite, only weather can rally prices after a bearish acreage number.

The 4th of July is a Monday this year. Three day 4th of July weekends are famous for dramatic moves when the market re-opens after the holiday.

The corn crop is made or lost in July. Soil and crop conditions on the 5th of July and the 8 to 14 day weather forecast will pretty much tell the market what kind of yields we will have on corn.

Corn can easily be limit-up or limit-down on July 5th. Many a farmer has developed life-long Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome trying to decide to sell or not to sell corn before the 4th of July weekend.

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