BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Presidential election was held yesterday in Turkey. As of this writing, it looks like none of the three candidates will receive the required 50% of the vote to avoid a run-off election. Incumbent President Erdogan has 49% of the vote with 89% of the ballots counted. He is a buddy of Russia and has made Turkey the big winner in the Ukraine Export Corridor deal. If there is a run-off election, it will be May 28th. Erdogan’s primary opponent leans toward the European

For the dozens of you folks who have asked how to regain the financial loss resulting from buying fertilizer, diesel fuel and other inputs too soon, and not selling grain sooner, here is your chance to get that money back. Read the following carefully because this is possibly the most unique situation and opportunity you will ever have. Highlights Russia claims Ukrainian drones attacked the Kremlin in Moscow in an attempt to kill Putin Wednesday morning. No one was hurt and t

Highlights May CBOT options expire today. Thursday saw disappointing jobs data, housing data, Philadelphia Manufacturing Index and Leading Economic Indicators all indicated a recession is in the near future for the USA. Meanwhile, a Federal Reserve governor reminded the news media how important it is to continue to remain strong in the fight to control inflation. He said interest rates must be increased. So, four economic reports yesterday indicated a recession will be upon

Tidbits The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a "disbursement" of $5.4 billion to Argentina on Friday. That is money down a rat-hole. Weather ENSO Analysis El Niño-Southern Oscillation, aka ENSO , is the measurement of the factors that cause the warm and cool phases across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean from South America into the Indian Ocean. These water temperature changes also change world weather. The pattern shifts back and forth irregularly every two to seven

Highlights Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko told reporters after her report to the Duma (legislature), that Russia was considering banning wheat and fertilizer exports. Another source said the discussions included taking the government-owned wheat reserve from 3 million mts to 10 million. After producing more wheat than ever before in 2022, Russia substantially increased its wheat export tax on January first and again, to a lesser extent, on February first

Highlights This is important for you younger guys to remember this item the rest of your life: Two fields with everything identical (same crop, variety, stage of maturity, soil type, elevation, agle to the sun, low temperature for the same amount of time, etc.), a field with wet soil will have much less frost damage than a field with dry soil. It is still too early to know how serious the frost damage was over the weekend, but here is sampling of temperatures Saturday morni

Tidbits Deliveries assigned for today by the CBOT are 654 soy oil to 28 December, 93 soybeans to 25 October, and zero bean meal to 9 December. To learn about how and why deliveries affect commodity prices, go to: www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/delivery-process-at-the-cbot Most of the reasons for lower CBOT prices yesterday were from outside the ag business. For the first time since February 1989, the number of US dollars in circulation decreased from the previous month. Th

Hello everyone, my name is Jake Kubela with Kubela Hedging in balmy Wahpeton ND. Its -15 with a 40-mph wind outside. Dang near shorts weather. I want to start by saying that I am humbled Roger gave me the opportunity to write his morning newsletter while he was away. I don’t typically write a lot of commentary, because there are people like Roger that do it so much better that I can. Besides that, it’s not where I provide the most value to my guys. I was born and raised in

Highlights The USDA announced yesterday morning that 517,000 mt of new crop soybeans were sold to China. Soybeans in China’s futures have rallied 80 cents per bushel the last 2 days. September grain options expire tomorrow. Usually a down day for prices, but the Pro Farmer Tour results may change that. The Tour results will be released tomorrow morning. Reuter’s Karen Braun commented yesterday: Averaging 198 bu/acre through 8 stops in W Iowa- Pottawattamie, Harrison, Crawf

Highlights Pro Farmer Tour news was somewhat better corn on Tuesday than Monday, but not nearly average yields except one location. Soybean pod counts were actually less than we expected given the August rains in much of the Corn Belt. Reuter’s Karen Braun reported: Pod counts are way down from this same route last year through 5 stops (Hamilton, N Polk & York Counties, Nebraska). Averaging 1167 pods in a 3x3' plot vs 1795 last year. The USDA announced yesterday morning that

Highlights Pro Farmer Tour Comments Sarah Jungman, Commodity Broker: 22 stops kept us on the go. Best field sample was irrigated 238 bpa (only field from Sioux Falls, SD to Grand Island, NE over 200 bushels). Best looking Nebraska dry land corn sample 138 bushels. Lowest yield of the day 17 bpa. Karen Braun, Ag Reporter, Reuters News Service: South Dakota corn yields averaged 118.45 bu/acre, 33 bushels less than 2021 and easily the tour's worst since 2012 (which was WAY wors

Highlights Five Russian Kalibr cruise missiles were fired Saturday night from ships in the Black Sea. Two were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses while three hit agricultural targets, but there were no casualties. Russia said on Sunday the missiles had destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for U.S. made HIMARS rockets, while Ukrainian officials said a granary had been hit. Ukrainian officials also reported the city of Nikopol, which lies across the Dnipro River

Highlights The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States is a forward-looking gauge designed to predict business cycle shifts. The US LEI was down 0.4% percent in July, following a 0.7% decline in June. July was the fifth consecutive month of a decline, predicting recession risks are rising. Russia’s seaborne exports of crude oil and refined crude oil products the first half of August exceeded 6 million barrels per day for the first time since hitting a post-pandemi

Highlights Did you notice that yesterday morning’s weekly export sales chart we sent you showed last week’s corn export sales were near the top end of the range of estimates and soybean sales were well above the top of the range? Those who say demand for corn and beans is poor do not know what they are talking about. Soybean meal sales in China have jumped this week. The 5 day moving average was 90,000 mt per day a week ago and now it is 260,000 mt per day. Nope, no demand

Highlights The US dollar index had its biggest gain yesterday since early July. That made it very tough sledding for exportable products, but corn and beans managed small gains. Wheat has always been more sensitive to the exchange rate of the dollar and it got killed yesterday, breaking major technical support which turned technical buyers into sellers. Yesterday’s low on September wheat had not been seen since October 18, 2021. Late August or early September is when the seas

Highlights Black Sea grain market analyst, Andrey Sizov, is beginning to think the seasonal low in wheat prices is behind us. The Tech Guy thinks the $7.52 August 2nd low in September CBOT wheat will hold. Roger says better than a 50% chance it will be broken purely because corn farmers and corn elevators are desperate to get rid of wheat in their bins. The problem this time of year, as always, every corn and/or bean farmer and every grain handler in the Corn Belt are all tr

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 228,606 mts of new crop soybeans to Mexico. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting will be released today, so gloom and doom for the USA and world economy was the order of the day the past two days. Better weather forecasts for US and EU crops; grain in Ukraine continues to be loaded on vessels for export shipment led to a second day of sharp losses at the CBOT.

Highlights Yesterday’s news included the US Congressional visit to Taiwan for the purpose of jerking China’s chain, additional rain in the forecast with cooler temperatures for the Corn Belt and the Bank of China cut its interest rate. Lower interest rates improve economic activity, which increases demand. But gloom and doom mentality reared its ugly head yesterday as the market took the position that China’s economy must be in worse shape than expected and, thus, the country

Highlights A congressional delegation landed in Taiwan early Sunday morning to meet with Taiwanese leaders and discuss U.S.-Taiwan relations. China has not officially commented on the visit, but yesterday eleven Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air space as China continues military drills near the island that began before Pelosi’s visits. This visit could be a serious short-term negative for beans in the week ahead. From a Kansas client last Friday: I sold my corn f

Highlights Venezuela has suspended this weekend shipments of crude oil to Europe after the US State Department allowed Venezuela's oil companies to resume exports to the US under an oil-for-debt deal. The deal has been confirmed by three sources. Citgo and Chevron will receive the heavy crude at their US Gulf costal refineries. Just the possibility of getting heavy crude to US refineries should cause diesel fuel prices decline a bit.