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Tidbits, Turkey, Spain, Markets & Rain Days Update 5/15/23

Highlights


Presidential election was held yesterday in Turkey. As of this writing, it looks like none of the three candidates will receive the required 50% of the vote to avoid a run-off election. Incumbent President Erdogan has 49% of the vote with 89% of the ballots counted. He is a buddy of Russia and has made Turkey the big winner in the Ukraine Export Corridor deal. If there is a run-off election, it will be May 28th.

Erdogan’s primary opponent leans toward the European Union and away from Russia. If President Erdogan wins re-election, it is more likely (but not a sure thing!) Russia will renew the grain corridor deal. If he loses, we see no chance Russia will renew the deal when it expires on Thursday. That would reduce Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports to about 10% of normal as it would have to be trucked and railed west and northwest to get to ocean ports.

The Antarctic Oscillation will strengthen its negative phase in the next 10 days, which will keep central Brazil, its safrinha (corn) crop area, drier and hotter than normal. Keep an eye on the predicted rain days for Rondonópolis, the first location on our rain day chart. It is a key safrinha area.

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