BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights June CBOT options expire tomorrow. Yesterday, China soybean futures traded at highs for the year at the equivalent of $15.27 per bushel. The chatter yesterday was that as many as 8 shiploads of US soybeans were booked to be shipped out of the PNW ports to China.     Yes, we really think beans will get to $13+. Corn in China is in a nice uptrend, there is some reason for optimism:

Highlights Recent frosts in Ukraine have not caused significant damage to grain and oilseed crops, a state weather forecaster said on Tuesday.   Ukraine experienced several waves of frost between May 1 and May 16, said Tetiana Adamenko, head of the forecaster’s agriculture department, adding that May frosts are a common occurrence.   “There is some damage to early seedlings of corn and sunflower, but it is all very localized. As of today, we have no information that crops hav

Highlights Wheat Quality Council Tour: Kansas has biggest wheat crop since 2021 Estimated production 290 million bushels (USDA 267.9); Last year Kansas produced 201 million bushels; This year’s yield is seen at 46.5 bushels per acre (USDA 38). Tidbits Agronomists in Central Ohio say the soft red winter wheat crop is flowering 15+ days early. Thanks to Gary for the tip. Set the basis three weeks before the soft red winter wheat harvest starts in your area.   On Wednesday, SovE

Highlights The USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released today at 11 AM Central Time. This will be the USDA’s first of 36 monthly S&D reports for the 2024 crops. The biggest question is: How much, if any, will USDA reduce South American crop production?   In Brazil, the state of Rio Grande do Sul experienced the worst flooding in the state's history. Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul eased over the weekend, but more rain is expected

Highlights December corn closed above its 100-day moving average on Thursday, which attracted more technical buying on Friday.   Non-farm payroll showed 175,000 jobs added in April vs expectations of 240,000 to 283,000. Unemployment is estimated unchanged at 3.8%, but it was up a bit at 3.9%. Both indicate the economy is not doing as well as expected. That poor economic news yesterday morning knocked crude oil from 60¢ higher to a dollar lower on the idea US crude consumption

There were tornados in the Midwest on Friday and Saturday, most of which were from Oklahoma north into Iowa. We know many of our clients suffered serious damage and perhaps some serious injuries. Our prayers are with you.    Shawn sent us this video of a tornado in southwest Nebraska on Friday: Highlights Reuters News Service world ag reporter, Karen Braun, reported oilseed workers at one of Argentina's largest ports will go on strike today to protest the government's propose

Highlights The seven days are expected to be very, very wet for the central US with heavy rain from Canada to Texas and from Nebraska through Indiana. Western Kansas is expected to see only light rains with Eastern Kansas to see upwards of 1 to 2 inches (26 to 52 mm). Recent forecast for rains in Kansas did not materialize.    Kansas' wheat crop lost 7% from good and excellent categories, down to 36% this week. Worse yet, Oklahoma lost 11% out of the top two categories, now 4

Fuel Pricing Many of our clients use a lot of diesel fuel every month doing other things in addition to farming. We had recommended locking-in spring diesel prices last winter. One client priced 20,000 gallons, but used it all by the 20th of March and asked our opinion of what he should do about pricing more diesel. The decision was made to buy diesel hand-to-mouth until a better pricing opportunity presented itself.    Since ULSD has not been around long enough to establish

Highlights The Washington Post  reported yesterday a person was infected with the bird flu in Texas who had contact with infected dairy cattle. This is the first bird flu case since 2022. The cattle futures dropped like a rock following the release of the headline, but did not settle limit down.   The Central US from the Gulf into Canada is expected to receive above normal rainfall over the next 14 days. Rain makes grain, especially corn. The weather forecast for rain is why

Tidbits Last night’s 6 to 10 day NOAA weather forecast is calling for above and much above normal temperatures in the Corn Belt spreading east on the 8 to 14 day forecast. Both forecasts are predicting above normal rainfall for the Corn Belt with much above normal rainfall in the Western Corn Belt.   The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumer spending in February was rising by the fastest rate in just over a year. The United States economy continues to outperfor

Highlights OPEC+ members agreed yesterday to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter of 2024 as OPEC+ tries to counter concerns over poor global growth and rising crude production by non-members.   Chevron has suspended biodiesel production operations at its plants in Ralston, Iowa, and Madison, Wisconsin due to a lack of profitability. The two plants can collectively produce 50 million gallons of biodiesel per year.   The price

Highlights The USDA reported the total crush numbers for January yesterday at 2 PM Central Time.   The US processors crushed 195 mil bu of soybeans, ~4 mil more bushels than January a year ago.   Canola crush was 203,989 tons in January 2024, slightly less than the 204,340 tons a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined oil production, at 25.3 million pounds, was down 32% from a year ago.   Soybean meal inventory at the end of the months of January 2023 was 397,638 tons; at the en

Highlights Reuters News reported that Russia unleashed its biggest air attack of the war on Ukraine on Friday, cities and infrastructure across the country were targeted. Ukraine claims civilian casualties, while Russia says only military facilities were attacked.   It was Russia’s largest aerial attack of the war on Ukraine and wheat closed lower yesterday. What happened to the good ol’ days when market action made some sense occasionally? Did the world forget the Black Sea

Highlights For nearly two months, weather forecasts have predicted wetter weather “next week” for the dry area of Brazil’s main crop growing area.   A week later, the “wetter weather” is rolled into the following week and the current week remains hot and dry.   This week was widely predicted to be the last week of mostly dry weather and the rains really were expected to fall beginning late this weekend into next week.   During adverse weather which causes crop production prob

Highlights It appears the weekend weather in Brazil was as hot and dry or worse than predicted in the areas which have suffered the most the past two months. The forecast for the next two weeks appears to be a bit drier than it was Friday afternoon, but definitely more rain this week than the past two, but less than half of normal rainfall is the prediction. Later today, CONAB, Brazil’s USDA, will issue its Crop Progress Report. That may be scaring the markets a bit because C

Market Comment From Russ, who is located in Central South Dakota very close to the North Dakota border: "Our area and surrounding areas had and having the best corn crop ever. Piles all over at elevators and some elevators only taking contract or cash sales, but not many yet. A lot in fields yet. Some piles are wet 16 to 20, but normal for our area to have those piles, just not this size in a while.   So, if basis is -60 for Jan Feb, should be lock in when hauling some out, w

Two days ago, Roger reported the US government interest on the national debt was more than a billion dollars a year; Gary caught the error; the annual interest is more than a trillion , which is 1,000 times more than a billion. Shawn sent us this weather forecast video. The first 5 minutes is an excellent weather forecast for North America presented Thursday and the last 5 minutes is an excellent explanation about the “Super” El Niño and how the “super” adjective is being ex

November CBOT options expire Friday. From far west Iowa, a little closer to Sioux City than Omaha, Andrew reported Saturday evening: "Finished 2500 acres of beans with an average of 57 bpa. We had about 1300 acres of irrigated beans out of the 2500. We are disappointed with the yield overall. Started corn yesterday and the first field made right at 100 bpa. 89 bushels under aph and 147 bushels less than last year right across the road on identical soil. Dryland corn is ugly

Highlights Crop progress: The nation’s corn crop is 45% harvested, 3% ahead of the 5 year average; the market expected 46%. The beans are 62% harvested, 10% ahead of the average; market expected 57%. Cotton is 33% harvested, 1% ahead of the normal harvest pace. Winter wheat is 68% planted, a perfectly normal pace. You can access all the crop condition and state by state progress at grainstats.com The NOPA September soybean crush was reported midday yesterday to be 165.456 mi

Highlights Rain has fallen the past three days in the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso and Goias and the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) is forecasting more chances of rain over the next few days with amounts of 0.8 to 1.2 inches (20 to 30 mm) with the possibility of high winds and hail. Rainfall amounts and coverage should increase in central Brazil starting the second week of October. After 90 days without any significant precipitation, coverage was spotty and am