Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Highlights The USDA increased the size of the 2021 soybean crop by 30 million bushels which put the September 1 soybean inventory 32 million bushels higher than the market expected. Since there is no way for the market to predict what USDA will do with production numbers for the past three years, “finding” or “losing” 30 million bushels of production is rather unsettling. The inventory USDA stated to be on hand September 1st for corn and beans is the 2021 crop marketing year

Bullish Corn Bearish Beans Confused Wheat

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue the following reports: Today is the last day of the soybean meal and soy oil marketing year. It is also the last day of the US government fiscal year. Government procurement staffers have been working overtime for three weeks to spend the remaining balance of funds allotted to their department before midnight tonight, when they have to give back what they don't spend and see reduced budgets for the next fiscal year.

September S&D The USDA unexpectedly reduced the domestic carryout for both corn and beans by four days' use and the wheat carryover was left unchanged, as expected. The world soybean carryover was unexpectedly reduced by two days with corn and wheat world carryovers unchanged, as expected. That sums-up pretty much all you need to know about the price outlook for all three commodities. Everything the USDA reported on beans yesterday was bullish. Yield was a bushel less than e

USDA September Numbers are Friendly Corn Bullish Beans Neutral Wheat

Highlights The numbers we reported to you yesterday afternoon compared to what was expected were friendly for corn and negative for soybeans. The wheat numbers were also friendly as the US wheat carryover was 40 million bushels less than expected, 29 million bushels less than last month and peeled 7 days’ worth of use off the carryout. Despite all that, the USDA lowered the national average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2022 wheat by a whopping $1.25 to $9.25 a bus

Quite Friendly Corn US New Crop Carryout 1,388 mil. bu. 1,402 expected World New Crop Carryout 306.68 mil. mts. 312.4 expected Negative Soybeans but not enough to change our expectations Numbers reflect conditions as of August 1st, not August 12th Increased bean yield, but reduced harvested acres US New Crop Carryout 245 mil. bu. 230 expected World New Crop Carryout 89.73 mil. mts. 88.95 expected

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Compared to what was expected, the numbers are slightly negative corn, neutral to friendly soybeans and negative wheat.

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About USDA Acreage report

Neutral Corn Bullish Beans Neutral Wheat Based upon average estimates expected. However, the corn market has way more acres priced-in...

The expectation of an event will move the market more than the confirmation of that event. Buy the rumor and sell the fact, Sell the...

Highlights At 10 AM Mountain Time today, the USDA will release its Actual Planted Acres, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Wheat Production Reports. Corn has sold off and beans have rallied going into today’s reports. The analysts expect about a half million more corn acres and a half million fewer beans than the March Intentions. However, based upon market action, the market expects about 2 to 2.5 million more corn acres and 1.5 to 2 million fewer bean acres. It will be very diffi

Highlights Jon Scheve is a grain market consultant whose weekly comments are posted on our website and, when they are posted, you should be receiving a notice of his post, just like The Tech Guy. Sunday, we talked about how the corn basis indicates corn futures are too cheap. Jon’s post later Sunday included: Last week I mentioned the basis market was indicating a potential futures rally. This week the July corn board did increase, and it also rose faster than September futur

Negative Corn: every corn number more than expected Friendly Soybeans: for US numbers and negative world numbers Neutral Wheat

Highlights Nothing in yesterday’s USDA numbers changed the outlook other than wheat looks less likely to get below $6 or $7 and old beans...

Highlights The UN reports the world’s food prices increased 13% in March alone. The head of Commodity Analytics and Research of Maritime...

Nothing here to change the market plan. Negative to bearish corn Neutral to negative soybeans Neutral to friendly wheat

Highlights Saudi Arabia has increased the price of crude oil for May delivery to all buyers: Arab Light to Asia (which gets two-thirds of...