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Russian Debt & Wheat, S&D Estimates, Markets & Rain Days Update 04/06/2022


Saudi Arabia has increased the price of crude oil for May delivery to all buyers: Arab Light to Asia (which gets two-thirds of Saudi crude exports) increased $4.40 to $9.35 per barrel and oil to the USA up $5.65 per barrel.


Gulf corn basis last evening for July was 5 cents higher. Soybean basis was a penny higher for the first half April, two cents higher for the last half April and all of May. Backdoor rumors are China is in the process of buying 2 to 3 million mt of US corn. Sunflower yields in Argentina are a bit less than last year and they weren't great last year.


Russia’s government has big bucks deposited in financial institutions controlled by the US Treasury. Those funds are frozen as part of the sanction policy. The US Treasury (so far) has refused to release Russian government funds they need to pay $600 million on national debt later this week. The refusal will require Russia to make the debt service payment from operating cash flow, which will be difficult to maintain their military operations… or they could default. The holders of Russian government debt are probably investors from Western Europe and the USA with China further down the list.

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