BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The USDA numbers did not justify a 25 to 30¢ lower close on soybeans. The 50.1 bu yield was in line with expectations. The 220-million-bushel 2023 crop carryover is tight enough to justify $17+ beans. The USDA actually increased 2022 crop corn and soybean exports! The 800,000 acreage increase of corn acres to 94.9 million and increased harvested corn acres for grain to 87.1 million acres was about 150,000 acres more than expected. Soybean acres were raised by 100,

Negative corn and beans, Friendly Wheat 18 Minutes After Report was released: December corn -10 November beans -16.75 December CBOT wheat...

USDA S&D Report Analysis Corn and soybean yields were less than expected and less than last month. Corn and soybean production numbers were less than expected and less than last month. The new crop corn carryover was reduced by one day for the US and unchanged for the world. The new crop soybean carryover was reduced by 5 days to a very tight 21 day supply for the US and the world carryover was reduced by 1 day. The average price expected to be paid to farmers for both co

Better than expected for price outlook of corn and beans. Not so bad for wheat prices. USDA Supply and Demand Highlights for 11 August...

Highlights After Wednesday’s less than expected retail inflation report for June at 0.2%, yesterday’s inflation at the wholesale level report for June was 0.1% and the resulting 12 month inflation rate was the smallest in nearly three years. It means the economy has entered a period of disinflation even with a very tight labor market. The run of softer inflation readings will bring an end the Federal Reserve tightening money supply campaign. Lower interest rates will reduce t

S&D Analysis Corn After close study of yesterday’s USDA corn S&D, it was not nearly as bearish as it appeared to us nor as bearish as the market reacted. Old crop corn exports were reduced 75 million, as expected, but feed use was increased 150 million bushels. The USDA is finally coming to the conclusion that when we have the same animal units in a year as the previous year, we will feed the same amount of corn and wheat, That and the 4 bushel yield decline pretty much wipe

One Hour After Report was released: Sept corn down -16 December corn -15 August beans -28 November beans -33 Sept CBOT wheat -19 Sept KC...

Highlights Early yesterday morning, Russians attacked the Port in Odessa, Ukraine largest grain shipping port, with Iranian Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones. Debris from the downed drones set fire to two terminals, including a grain terminal according to Oleh Kiper, head of Odessa Region Administration. There was some “marginal” damage to the grain facility. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) later this morning. The market expects an increase of 0.3% in June. The USDA will issue it

Highlights Before Friday’s Actual Planted Acreage Report, USDA projected the new crop soybean marketing year, the USA would consume and export a total of 4,410 million bushels of beans for the year or 12.08 million bushels a day. USDA projected farmers would be paid an average of $12.10 per bushel for those 4,410 million bushels Now that planted bean acres have been reduced from 87.5 million acres (March Intention) to 83.5 million (June Actual), harvested acres have been red

Highlights Do not be selling or pricing any corn. Weather is far more important than acres and world weather is out of whack. Weather looks like a good chance for significant rain in the Central Corn Belt today followed by dry weather for several days. Will it get hot? The formula to calculate the “expected” number of soybeans on hand in the USA is: Beginning inventory (carryin) for the marketing year (on Sept 1st) + imports + production – weekly exports – monthly soybean cr

Inventory of corn, wheat and beans less than expected. 35 Minutes after Report was released: July corn down -14 December corn -17 July...

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day GFS model run shifted towards the drier EU model with reduced probability of rain for Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and Minnesota. The forecast will change four more times before Sunday evening. The USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 197,000 metric tons of old crop soybeans to an unknown buyer. Why was bean oil so strong yesterday? China raised their vegetable oil import projections. That shot Malaysian palm oil futures up 3% as traders

27 Minutes after Report was released: July corn down 8 July beans up 18 July CBOT wheat down 1 July KC wheat down 14 Sept Spring wheat...

25 Minutes after Report was released: July corn UP 1 July beans DOWN 4 July CBOT wheat UP 14 July KC wheat UP 34 Sept Spring wheat UP 12...

Highlights USDA numbers made no sense for beans and, to lesser extent, corn. Basis, spreads and technical factors are our best predictors of futures prices Argentina’s “soy dollar” program bought very few soybeans the first two days of the program as farmers were not impressed with the 300 pesos per US dollar instead of the current (today) 213 pesos for everyone else in Argentina. Farmers, like all people in Argentina, are trying to survive with inflation over 100% per year,

Twenty Minutes after Report was released: May corn down 2 May beans up 9 July CBOT wheat down down 2 July KC wheat down 6 Sept Spring wheat down 11 No change for our longer term pricing recommendations. Question is to ponder: How do we lose 57 million bushels of soybeans in three months and not change the S&D?

Highlights The USDA will issue its April Supply and Demand (S&D) Report today at 10 AM Mountain Time. The expected numbers in million bushels for US and mts for the world are: If USDA throws out a surprise today, it most likely will be a bullish soybean carryover. Why? The USDA took an inventory as of December first and again March first. Every week, USDA reports how many beans were exported and every month, USDA reports how many beans were crushed. So, December first invent

Highlights: Wheat USDA sees US wheat acres at 49.9 million (20.1 million hectares), up 9% from 2022 and 8% above the five-year average. Winter wheat planted area is up 13% at 37.5 million acres, with 26.0 million acres of Hard Red Winter, 7.8 million acres of Soft Red Winter, and 3.7 million acres of white winter wheat. All spring wheat acres will be down 2% from a year ago with Hard Red Spring at 9.9 million acres and durum up 9% to 1.8 million acres. All US wheat inventory

Twenty Minutes after Report was released: May corn up 7 May beans up 26 July CBOT wheat down 8 July KC wheat down 2 Sept Spring wheat...

Highlights The USDA’s domestic corn and world corn carryover projections were both larger than expected. Corn finished the day down 8 to 9¢. The USDA’s domestic wheat and world wheat carryover projections were both less than expected. Soft red winter and hard red spring wheat finished the day down 9 to 11¢. Hard red winter was up 1 to down 5¢. The USDA’s domestic soybean and world soybean carryover projections were both less than expected. Soybeans finished the day up 2