BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Now that the October USDA report has been issued, we can be quite confident that the futures have made their lows for the year. Soybeans did it on May 31st and corn did it on September 19th. The USDA has lowered yields for both beans and corn four consecutive months. We will get a November production update (yield, harvested acres) from USDA, but there will be no USA production information on the December S&D, just demand changes for USA crops; the USDA will updat

The numbers are: Friendly corn Bullish beans Neutral Wheat 30 Minutes After Report was released: December corn +8 November beans +40...

Highlights USDA issues an Export Inspections Report the first business day of every week which reports the amounts of commodities loaded on a ship, train, or truck, ready to leave the USA. The soybean export inspections were the market shocker yesterday morning when reported to be 1.643 million mts, double the high end of the range of expectations. That was later corrected to 1.036 million mts. While the reduction was disappointing, there were still way more beans exported t

The 2022 corn for grain production is revised down 15 mil bu. Corn harvested for grain is revised to 79.1 million acres, down 100,000...

Highlights Dr. Cordonnier cut his US corn yield estimate by 1.5 bu to 171.5 and reduced bean yields by a half bushel to 49.0. The meteorological firm, Climatempo, is calling for temps over 100 degrees across central Brazil (where 85% of their beans are grown) as the country continues to struggle with hot and dry conditions during planting. Producers are being warned by agronomists to wait on planting beans until adequate moisture arrives to ensure germination and stand estab

Crop Feedback Jake has a marketing service in Wahpeton, North Dakota. He sent this information Sunday afternoon: "Hello Roger, I have received quite a few yield results from my customers. In general, we look for 45 - 50 bushel yields on soybeans as an across the farm average. Our yields so far have been anywhere from 28 - 48. I would say in general we are 5 bushel lower than most years. We are about 50% done with harvest with just the later beans left. I am projecting a d

Highlights The USDA numbers did not justify a 25 to 30¢ lower close on soybeans. The 50.1 bu yield was in line with expectations. The 220-million-bushel 2023 crop carryover is tight enough to justify $17+ beans. The USDA actually increased 2022 crop corn and soybean exports! The 800,000 acreage increase of corn acres to 94.9 million and increased harvested corn acres for grain to 87.1 million acres was about 150,000 acres more than expected. Soybean acres were raised by 100,

Negative corn and beans, Friendly Wheat 18 Minutes After Report was released: December corn -10 November beans -16.75 December CBOT wheat...

USDA S&D Report Analysis Corn and soybean yields were less than expected and less than last month. Corn and soybean production numbers were less than expected and less than last month. The new crop corn carryover was reduced by one day for the US and unchanged for the world. The new crop soybean carryover was reduced by 5 days to a very tight 21 day supply for the US and the world carryover was reduced by 1 day. The average price expected to be paid to farmers for both co

Better than expected for price outlook of corn and beans. Not so bad for wheat prices. USDA Supply and Demand Highlights for 11 August...

Highlights After Wednesday’s less than expected retail inflation report for June at 0.2%, yesterday’s inflation at the wholesale level report for June was 0.1% and the resulting 12 month inflation rate was the smallest in nearly three years. It means the economy has entered a period of disinflation even with a very tight labor market. The run of softer inflation readings will bring an end the Federal Reserve tightening money supply campaign. Lower interest rates will reduce t

S&D Analysis Corn After close study of yesterday’s USDA corn S&D, it was not nearly as bearish as it appeared to us nor as bearish as the market reacted. Old crop corn exports were reduced 75 million, as expected, but feed use was increased 150 million bushels. The USDA is finally coming to the conclusion that when we have the same animal units in a year as the previous year, we will feed the same amount of corn and wheat, That and the 4 bushel yield decline pretty much wipe

One Hour After Report was released: Sept corn down -16 December corn -15 August beans -28 November beans -33 Sept CBOT wheat -19 Sept KC...

Highlights Early yesterday morning, Russians attacked the Port in Odessa, Ukraine largest grain shipping port, with Iranian Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones. Debris from the downed drones set fire to two terminals, including a grain terminal according to Oleh Kiper, head of Odessa Region Administration. There was some “marginal” damage to the grain facility. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) later this morning. The market expects an increase of 0.3% in June. The USDA will issue it

Highlights Before Friday’s Actual Planted Acreage Report, USDA projected the new crop soybean marketing year, the USA would consume and export a total of 4,410 million bushels of beans for the year or 12.08 million bushels a day. USDA projected farmers would be paid an average of $12.10 per bushel for those 4,410 million bushels Now that planted bean acres have been reduced from 87.5 million acres (March Intention) to 83.5 million (June Actual), harvested acres have been red

Highlights Do not be selling or pricing any corn. Weather is far more important than acres and world weather is out of whack. Weather looks like a good chance for significant rain in the Central Corn Belt today followed by dry weather for several days. Will it get hot? The formula to calculate the “expected” number of soybeans on hand in the USA is: Beginning inventory (carryin) for the marketing year (on Sept 1st) + imports + production – weekly exports – monthly soybean cr

Inventory of corn, wheat and beans less than expected. 35 Minutes after Report was released: July corn down -14 December corn -17 July...

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day GFS model run shifted towards the drier EU model with reduced probability of rain for Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and Minnesota. The forecast will change four more times before Sunday evening. The USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 197,000 metric tons of old crop soybeans to an unknown buyer. Why was bean oil so strong yesterday? China raised their vegetable oil import projections. That shot Malaysian palm oil futures up 3% as traders

27 Minutes after Report was released: July corn down 8 July beans up 18 July CBOT wheat down 1 July KC wheat down 14 Sept Spring wheat...

25 Minutes after Report was released: July corn UP 1 July beans DOWN 4 July CBOT wheat UP 14 July KC wheat UP 34 Sept Spring wheat UP 12...