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Tidbits, USDA, Market Outlook, Markets & Rain Days Update 7/1/23

Highlights


Do not be selling or pricing any corn. Weather is far more important than acres and world weather is out of whack. Weather looks like a good chance for significant rain in the Central Corn Belt today followed by dry weather for several days. Will it get hot?


The formula to calculate the “expected” number of soybeans on hand in the USA is:

Beginning inventory (carryin) for the marketing year (on Sept 1st) + imports + production – weekly exports – monthly soybean crush = current inventory.


On the Quarterly Grain Inventory Report in March, USDA reported the soybean bushels were 57 million less than expected.


How can USDA lose 57 million bushels of beans in three months when they count every bushel exported and every bushel crushed? It is impossible. Obviously, the beginning supply was wrong. Of the factors that make-up beginning supply, namely carryin, imports and production, the production is the most difficult number to get correct. It is safe to conclude production of soybeans was overstated in one or all of the past three years.


Over the past three months, we have mentioned three times the USDA had yet to account for those missing bushels on the April, May, and June S&D Reports.


Yesterday, the USDA showed how, in a back-handed way, they are going to account for those missing soybeans.


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