BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat 17 Minutes After the Report: March Corn +4.75 January beans +2.25 March...

Highlights On the November S&D, USDA reduced corn yields by 0.7 bu. to 183.1 bu. and an even bigger surprise was a 1.4 bu. reduction of soybean yields to 51.7 bushels per acre. The soybean yield was lower than the lowest yield estimate by three-tenths of bushel!   Corn yield was reduced for all the states along the Atlantic Seaboard as well as Kentucky down 3.2 bu., Illinois down 1.8 bu., Missouri down 1.6 bu., Nebraska down 1 bu., Iowa and Wisconsin both down 0.5 bu. But Ind

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Bullish Soybeans Neutral Wheat   17 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +4.5 Nov beans +8.5 Dec CBOT wheat...

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat   17 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -1 Nov beans -5 Dec CBOT wheat -9...

Highlights Nothing in yesterday’s reports changed our price outlook. We expected neutral to somewhat friendly numbers and that is what USDA gave us. USDA reduced the size of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop by 3 million bushels to 4,162 million bushels. USDA did not change the 2023 corn production.   The biggest surprise, but not a big one, was corn demand was substantially more (84 million bushels) than the market expected. That was a 0.56% increase in demand and a reduction of 4.

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat   16 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +6 Nov beans -2 Dec CBOT wheat +8...

Highlights After cutting interest rates 10 basis points Monday, yesterday China’s Central Bank presented the largest stimulus package since the pandemic to bolster economic growth in the country, lowering borrowing costs, cutting mortgage interest rates, smaller bank reserves, free money for certain industries and groups of people, etc. Their stocks and bonds ripped to their highest trade in more than two years, which contributed greatly to higher CBOT commodities yesterday m

Carryover and S&D The three most important factors in governing the future price direction of a given commodity are carryover, carryover, carryover. What is the current carryover, aka ending stocks?  Is it more than enough to last until the next crop is harvested? If not, the price will rise to make sure the world does not run out of that commodity. That is the job of the market; to make sure we never run out of a commodity. Higher prices require users to reduce consumption b

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Negative Wheat   23 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -4 Nov beans +3 Sept CBOT wheat -1...

Highlights USDA's August S&D report summary: Corn harvested acres down 700,000 to 82.7 million. Corn yield up 2.1 bushels per acre to 183.1. Corn production up 47 million bu to 15.147 billion bushels; corn usage up 70 million bushels. Bean harvested acres up by just over 1 million acres (was the USDA Actual Planted Acres in June wrong?). Where did those acres come from? The USDA reported “prevented plantings” of 2.670 million acres of corn, 775,000 acres of soybeans, and 389,

The numbers were: Friendly+ Corn Bearish Soybeans Friendly Wheat 37 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +4 Nov beans -20 Sept CBOT wheat...

Tidbits Market advisor, Kevin Duling of Maupin, Oregon is a wheat guy and tracks S&D numbers. He is the best wheat guy we know. If you have a lot of financial risk due to unsold wheat, we encourage you to give Kevin a call.    Here are his post USDA report wheat comments:    For (world) wheat, USDA went back to the old playbook of increasing stocks from last year to pad the books for this year. Any time the balance sheet starts looking too tight, USDA adds in bushels from a p

Highlights The USDA lowered old corn carryout 120 million bushels below the lowest estimate by increasing feed use and exports both by 75 million bushels each. Old crop corn imports were increased by 5 million so the carryout was lowered by 145 million to 1,877 million bushels.   New crop corn feed demand was also increased by 75 million bushels and exports were increased 25 million. The new crop production increase of 240 million bushels from additional corn acres was more t

The numbers were: Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Bearish Wheat 28 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +5 Nov beans +4 Sept CBOT wheat -12...

Analysis of Friday’s Carnage Benson Quinn Commodities said the biggest surprise on Friday was USDA apparently delaying release with no warning. If the report was delayed and no one knew the numbers, why was corn down 19¢ and beans up 7¢ when the report was released?   As we reported yesterday, the USDA said there were 3.36 million acres of corn and 12.767 million acres of beans left to be planted when USDA completed their survey. What we did not see was a note in the fine pri

Highlights The USDA reports were to be released at 11 AM Central Time yesterday. That was when corn started going down and beans began moving higher. Traffic on the USDA website at report release time is so heavy, us peons must wait a few minutes to access the report. Yesterday, we waited 10 to 12 minutes as corn continued to fall. That is when the USDA issued a statement on its website that technical difficulties led to a delay in the report being released.   What did that m

These are Benson-Quinn's USDA Numbers. We have no reason to think they are not actual USDA numbers. If they are the actual numbers, some...

Highlights Yesterday morning, the consumer price index for May was unchanged from April and up 3.3% for the past 12 months. Core CPI was up 0.2% in May (+0.1% expected), which was lowest since April 2021. April’s core CPI was +0.3%.   The Federal Reserve announced yesterday afternoon it will hold interest rates steady and pushed out the start of rate cuts to as late as December, projecting only one 25 basis points (one-fourth percent) rate reduction for the year.   China’s ec

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Negative Wheat One Hour after the report: July corn +2 July beans +1 July CBOT wheat -10...