BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tomorrow begins the third year of the Russian/Ukraine war and Russia is gaining momentum.   When the Japanese attacked the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941, the US not only lost half its navy, but it was woefully unprepared for a war whereas the Japanese military had been expanding its empire throughout China and Southeast Asia since 1931. It took the USA 3 years and 8 months to destroy the Japanese Empire despite placing a priority on the defeat of Nazi Germany ahead

Highlights Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybeans production estimate to 145 mil mt (USDA 156), down 2 mil mts while leaving his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 112 mil mts (USDA 124).   Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean production at 50 mil. mts (USDA 50) and corn production 54 mil. mts (USDA 55).   Agricomp Commodities downgraded Argentina’s soybean crop 1.88 mil mts to 49.5 mil mts due to recent excess heat and lack of rain. They stat

Highlights The October Census Bureau crush was reported after the close yesterday and it was an all-time record high for any month. The US has never crushed 200 mil bu of beans in one month until October 2023. The soybean crush was 201.4 mil. bu., a bit above the market’s expectation of 201.1 mil bu. and well above the 197 mil. bu. a year ago.   Soybean oil stocks were expected to be 1.540 billion lbs, but soy oil stocks were just 1.082 bil. lbs. Nobody has ever reported an e

Highlights Dr. Michael Cordonnier, the guru of South American crop production, wrote on Friday: "Farmers in Mato Grosso have a difficult decision to make concerning their 2023/24 safrinha corn. Soybean planting in many areas of the state has been delayed due to hot and dry conditions and some of the early planted soybeans will need to be replanted. These delays will result in a delay in planting the safrinha corn in January and February. The ideal planting window for safrin

Tidbits Argentina's ruling coalition did much better than expected to lead the country's general election and set the stage for a vote next month between Socialist Sergio Massa (36% of the vote) and far-right libertarian radical Javier Milei (30% of the vote) with 80% of the votes counted. A conservative candidate had 23.7% of the vote. The war in Eastern Europe continues to escalate, but as rapidly as it did in the warmer months. The fighting in the Middle-East is rapidly e

Highlights Two weeks ago, 8 out of 10 farmers we talked to said they were expecting less bushels per acre than a year ago. While they would not put a number on the beans, most were saying corn would be 20 to 30 bushels less. That translates to about 10 bushels less per acre. Half of the 1 in 10 said yields would be the same and the same number said better than 2022. Now, 6 out of 10 say corn is not as good as 2022 and the others are split between the same and better. Yield

Highlights Ukraine’s leadership is highly stressed by Speaker McCarthy’s removal from office. They claim McCarthy, Jeffries and Biden made a secret deal last week to send more money to Ukraine. Supposedly, McCarthy confirmed yesterday the secret deal for Ukraine was true. Now, this money will be delayed, or could be rejected completely with a new speaker. About two weeks ago, Ukraine set-up a temporary “humanitarian corridor” for cargo vessels, and several ships have departe

Written yesterday morning: "Roger, I am in one of the dry pockets of NE Iowa (about 45 minutes north of Waterloo). I have had a little over an inch of rain since the 4th of July. Yesterday, when I was taking a load of beans to Shell Rock, I saw 3 choppers taking corn. I don't ever remember seeing choppers rolling by Aug 17. I walked some fields last night and pollination was good but seed depth is lacking. Several farmers I talked to have speculated we will have lower test we

Thanks to Bill for letting us know Minnesota is not east, but west of Wisconsin. Bill says he always pays close attention to what we send him and, indeed, he does. For those of you with old crop on basis contracts, we need to do our best to pick the high between now and August 30th, cash out the basis contracts and buy call options or futures. With the Pro Farmer Tour next week, we certainly recommend you wait until the market recovers from this grossly oversold condition b

Pipeline Supply refers to the minimum number of bushels or tons of a commodity that are in transit to processing facilities and users to maintain a steady flow of supplies to users. It is the amount of a given commodity in the trucks leaving the farm to the processor, in the trains and barges moving to an export facility or processor, in the processor bins, in the feed delivery trucks, feed bins on the farms, and in the feeders of the feeding floor. No one knows exactly how

Highlights The Central Bank of Brazil released the result of the IBC-Br for May of this year. The indicator, which is seen as a preview of the Brazilian GDP, recorded a sharp monthly drop of 2%, well below expectations by analysts of no growth (0.00%). Urea prices ended another week on highs around the globe. Nitrogen quotes delivered to Brazil increased US$15 to US$20 per mt, and prices were between US$315-320 per mt. Ukraine said several days ago it would ship grain west

Yesterday, Roger recommended you price 2023 fertilizer. He meant fertilizer for 2024 crops. Highlights Is the weather or the war more supportive of these markets? Does it matter? Wheat certainly gets an extra boost on the war news as the war is in “The Bread Basket of the World.” Russia took another swipe on Ukraine’s port of Odessa again Wednesday and will probably continue to do so. The Viterra and Kernel facilities were both bombed. Major damage was done. That news suppo

Nitrogen Fertilizer: Get it Priced Roger has been recommending not to forward price fertilizer, including nitrogen, for more than a year. Natural gas futures have not made a new low since June 1st when it made a double bottom (trend change indicator) and from June 25th, 3 years ago. Winter is getting closer and the war in Europe is escalating. The world's longest ammonia pipeline runs from Tolyatti Azot's plant in Russia to Odessa, Ukraine. The “Tolyatti – Odessa” pipeline u

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Highlights First Republic Bank stock was up 30% yesterday as it continues to stave-off collapse with other banks’ money. That helped stocks and crude oil and hurt gold and the US dollar index, which should have helped grain prices. Soybeans had a bad day yesterday supposedly because Brazil’s monster crop continues to keep Brazil’s infrastructure jammed and overflowing as their basis continues to weaken. What good is cheap soybeans to soybean importers if they must wait thre

February CBOT options expire today. Highlights Tampa is probably the biggest port for US fertilizer coming and going. Ammonia prices were down 19% yesterday. February AA priced at $790 per mt, down from January’s $975. Natural Gas prices have declined over 50% in just the last 6 weeks, trading at the lowest price since May of 2021. It is possible that the restart of the Freeport LNG plant in Texas will cause US natural gas prices to increase as more pipeline natural gas will

Ukraine has had the reputation as the most corrupt country in Europe ever since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Anybody can get a driver’s license by simply paying a bribe. It matters not if you can drive or read the signs. Securing any government document is the same process. If the war in Ukraine ends this year, the most likely reason will be that Ukraine's financial supporters stop their support because of Ukraine’s corruption. Allegations of war material corruption ar

Highlights The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) soybean crush for November was 179.184 million bushels, well below the trade’s expectation of 181.473 mb and below the low end of the range of expectations of 180.0. Soy oil stocks were reported at 1.630 billion pounds, above the average trade estimate of 1.619 billion pounds (range 1.550-1.775). Considering the crush was less than expected and, yet, the soy oil stocks were larger than expected, soybean futures hel

Russia Confirms Ukraine's Announcement A deal to extend the Black Sea grain deal was confirmed by Russia's foreign ministry early this morning. That is the reason for the weakness led by wheat. The terms are the same as the original agreement 120 days, no new Ukrainian ports included. Andrey Sizov says, "Mostly priced in probably...a panic sell-off (if we see it) could be a buying opportunity."

As a result of the closure of the Ukrainian Grain Corridor The Tech Guy will not be making any comments this evening and probably no opening calls. Sometimes fundamental news is overwhelming. This evening is one of those times. AgResource opening calls 6 hours ago: Wheat 25-40 higher Corn 12-18 higher Soybeans 10-20 higher Chris Macchitelli , Owner and Founder, Pure Market Maker ( Cmacchitelli@gmail.com ) From 34 minutes ago: CBOT and KCBOT wheat bid limit-up. How long an