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Tidbits, Russian/Ukraine War, Global Public Debt 2/22/24

Tomorrow begins the third year of the Russian/Ukraine war and Russia is gaining momentum.


When the Japanese attacked the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941, the US not only lost half its navy, but it was woefully unprepared for a war whereas the Japanese military had been expanding its empire throughout China and Southeast Asia since 1931. It took the USA 3 years and 8 months to destroy the Japanese Empire despite placing a priority on the defeat of Nazi Germany ahead of defeating Japan.


Likewise, the Soviet Union was woefully unprepared for war when invaded by Nazi Germany on 22 June 1941, yet the Soviets, with a little help from the USA and Great Britain, crushed Nazi Germany in less than 4 years.  


Clearly, this Russian/Ukraine “war” has turned into a money-laundering machine for politicians primarily in the USA and Europe. The “war” will continue as long as Ukraine has money and weapons given to it. But Ukraine will never have access to the weapons and personnel needed to win the war. Not only is that very expensive and wasteful, it will end the gravy train. A survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology revealed 72% of Ukrainians want their government to seek a diplomatic solution to end the war, up from 59% in May 2022.



Corn was pressured yesterday by pending EPA revisions to the carbon intensity scoring model that are expected in early March. The bull side noted that EPA head Regan was scheduled to appear with Ag Sec Vilsack at the Commodity Classic on March 1, stirring hopes of a positive announcement on the carbon intensity formula.


Rapeseed meal has been replacing more than the usual percentage of soybean meal in Chinese feed rations, which contributed to weakness in the bean complex yesterday. Another negative factor was China's plan to auction a million mts of soybeans from government reserves. What the market does not realize is China only puts government supplies out for bid to keep a lid on the domestic price. Government stocks are always replaced by imports so as not to disrupt domestic supply and demand. However, the perception is soybean prices are relatively cheap now, so auctioning government soybeans does not make sense given what the market knows now.

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