BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Yesterday’s Pro Farmer reports for Nebraska and Indiana: These much better than expected Pro Farmer yields will make it very difficult for the harvest reports to be “better than expected.” That means we can be more confident that the fall low will be made before harvest begins. So much for the 41 nations who were going to crash the dollar yesterday. The dollar index traded higher yesterday than it has since June 12th. It has gained 4% during a strong uptrend since

Nitrogen Fertilizer: Get it Priced Roger has been recommending not to forward price fertilizer, including nitrogen, for more than a year. Natural gas futures have not made a new low since June 1st when it made a double bottom (trend change indicator) and from June 25th, 3 years ago. Winter is getting closer and the war in Europe is escalating. The world's longest ammonia pipeline runs from Tolyatti Azot's plant in Russia to Odessa, Ukraine. The “Tolyatti – Odessa” pipeline u

Highlights Below to much below normal temperatures will cover the Eastern two-thirds of the USA to May 5th at the least according to the National Weather Service. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned the northern Upper Mississippi River may have the highest flood levels since 2001 because of high snowmelt in the area. At St. Paul, MN, the river reaches flood stage at 14-feet. As of April 19, the river was expected to crest at 18.4-feet on April 25

Highlights A third railroad union, the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen, has voted to reject the tentative agreement with the National Carriers’ Conference Committee. If the railroads go down with the barges down... possible Black Swan event. Will Biden let the railroad unions strike? President Truman did not and he was a Democrat also. Reuters reports that 800,000 people were placed on covid lockdown in Wuhan, China and new daily cases yesterday were in excess of 1,000 acro

Highlights Soybean Yield Report, Northeastern Iowa, Garden Spot of the Corn Belt This Year: I thought 76 would catch it, but I finished the beans: 79+ average. USDA monthly Crop Production and Supply and Demand (S&D) 10 AM Mountain Time Wednesday. Most analysts expect a slight decline in corn and bean yields offset by reduced exports. As you read this, there are more than a hundred thousand vehicles sitting in line in France whose owners hope to buy a few gallons of g

Highlights Yield report Lewis County, extreme NE Missouri: Corn not quite as good as last year's corn. Soybeans are half; dry August. Thanks, Ryan. The US dollar was sharply lower yesterday and just about everything else was higher yesterday. Even the stock market was up (Dow up 548 points) even though Apple said its sales of the newest I-phone were very disappointing. The reason for the dollar weakness was Bank of England staged a dramatic intervention to stave off a suppose

Highlights There has been no official statement from the Chinese government about the rumored coup. China's social media accounts show it is a normal Monday ahead of the party's five-yearly congress which is set to begin on October 16 where Jinping is poised to secure a historic third term that will cement his place as China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. India appears to be the source of most of the news about China’s president being removed from office. Wayne Bac

Highlights October grain options expire today. It is usually a down day plus we may see some pre-hedging this afternoon. Prehedging is merchandisers selling futures late on a Friday prior to a harvest weekend to hedge the grain they expect to buy over the weekend. There won’t be much, but the specs may not know that. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sales of: 105,000 mts of 2022 corn to Mexico 101,600 mts of 2022 corn to unknown Yield Report Saunders County, NE Neb

Highlights The USDA will issue its monthly Crop Production and Supply & Demand (S&D) Reports today at 10 AM Mountain Time. Given the strong close Friday, corn, wheat and beans will probably remain under pressure until about two hours before the report and then recover about 50% of the day’s loss before the report is released. The two top rail unions have failed to reach an agreement ahead of a potential strike on September 17, causing CSX, BNSF, Kansas City Southern, Nor

Highlights The city of Chengdu, China has extended its COVID lockdown indefinitely. The city of 21 million people has been on lockdown since September 1. That is negative for crude oil and, therefore, corn and beans because cheaper crude oil means cheaper gasoline and diesel which means cheaper ethanol and biodiesel. Avian influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in Ohio. Three million laying hens will be euthanized. We knew we would get bird flu somewhere this winter, but we s

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 146,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. Putin signed a decree to increase Russian military personnel by 137,000 people, up to a total of 1.15 million. Average daily charter rate for Panamax Ocean Freighters, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 55,000 to 70,000 tonnes, decreased $606 Thursday to $12,816. Cape Freighters transport about 150,000 mts of grains, iron ore or coal. The average daily c

Highlights The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States is a forward-looking gauge designed to predict business cycle shifts. The US LEI was down 0.4% percent in July, following a 0.7% decline in June. July was the fifth consecutive month of a decline, predicting recession risks are rising. Russia’s seaborne exports of crude oil and refined crude oil products the first half of August exceeded 6 million barrels per day for the first time since hitting a post-pandemi