BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Estimates for USDA’s S&D  to be released tomorrow at 10 AM Mountain Time: CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) later this morning will release its revisions for Brazil’s crop production estimates.   All products from Brazil  imported to the U.S. will have a 50% tariff  separate from Sectoral Tariffs (specific product tariffs), effective 1 August, as President Trump announced yesterday in an open letter to Brazil’s president. Brazil’s President Lula responded he will use the tariff r

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat    40 Minutes After the Report: July Corn unchg Dec corn -1 July beans -9...

Highlights Today at 10 AM Mountain Time, the USDA will release its June S&D . The biggest questions are what changes, if any, will USDA make on old crop corn exports and will an increase be offset by increased production from 2024 or a decrease of feed use and will the Brazilian corn crop be increased? USDA increased that crop by 4 million mts last month and most other crop predictions have been catching up to USDA’s number since then and now the average estimate is 131.5 mil

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat    40 Minutes After the Report: July Corn +4 Dec corn +3...

Tidbits The day before yesterday’s trade talk between China  and the U.S. were to begin, President Trump said reducing the tariff  to 80% on Chinese goods "seems right," suggesting an alternative to the current 145% tariff. The meeting took place in Geneva as scheduled yesterday, but neither side made any comment about the discussion other than they will meet again today. Saturday's talks began in the morning and continued into the evening. It is generally considered a positi

Highlights The biggest news piece from yesterday’s S&D was the USDA increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. As many expected, the corn for feed was reduced by 25 million bushels, so the carryout was reduced by 75 million bushels, which took the carryout from a 37 day supply to a 35 day supply. The market expected a 30 million bushel reduction in the corn carryout. USDA did not change any of the corn or soybean production numbers for Brazil, Argentina, or Paraguay. Stud

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat  Neutral World Wheat    20 Minutes After the Report: May...

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Highlights The USDA could have and should have increased corn exports and ethanol use on yesterday’s S&D, but it did not, as we predicted. If you noted our summary chart of weekly exports inspections we send you every Tuesday, yesterday’s chart showed you the USDA projects corn exports this marketing year to be 6.9% more than a year ago, but with half the marketing year still ahead of us, corn exports are running 38% ahead of year ago. We know corn exports will slow down in t

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative Wheat     10 Minutes After the Report: May Corn +1.5 Dec corn -0.25 May beans...

Highlights AgrInvest Commodities cash grain trader for exports, Eduardo Vanin , yesterday morning: "The soybean basis rally continues. For May, at +75sk (75¢ over May soybean futures)  new highs, +50¢ per bushel from last week. This is one of the most aggressive weekly rallies I have ever seen. The April/May cash price is nearly equal to the June/July (very little carry) ."   Earlier this week, a conveyor belt system collapsed  at the TGPM grain loading port terminal at the B

Highlights Mexico said it is willing to raise tariffs  on Chinese goods and buy more from the U.S. to avoid President Trump's 25% tariff, Bloomberg reported late Friday.   Canada and Mexico are feeding Trump evidence of their progress in curbing the flow of fentanyl opioids into the U.S. ahead of the midnight Monday deadline for 25% tariffs on their non-energy imports. Crude oil from Canada is facing a 10% tariff on its 4,000+ barrels per day to the U.S.      Friday’s financi

Highlights The USDA made no changes on the domestic corn and soybean S&D  other than increasing the average price expected to be paid to...

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Friendly Soybeans Slightly Friendly Wheat     10 Minutes After the Report: March Corn -1 March beans -2...

Highlights The weather pattern Mato Grosso and Goias through Wednesday is expected to allow a sharp advance in the harvest pace. Weather forecasts indicate alternating rain and sun, with higher temperatures. Elevators in Mato Grosso reported a three to fourfold increase in soybean deliveries the past two days. Crushers report very low protein content (below 33%), but high oil content.   In Brazil’s leading corn and bean producing state, Mato Grosso (MT), the prices in July fo

Highlights The market reaction to the USDA numbers was bullish for corn and beans. Corn should have been stronger than it was given as the 2024 corn yield was reduced 3.8 bushels per acre.      The USDA pretty much admitted they do not know what they are doing or that they had been lying to us about the corn and soybean inventory.   USDA added 200,000 acres of corn harvested, but cut the yield by a whopping 3.8 bushels to 179.3. The lowest trade yield guess was 181.3.   The b

The numbers were: Bullish Corn Bullish Soybeans Neutral Wheat     45 Minutes After the Report: March Corn +13 January beans +23 March...

Highlights Agricultural markets will close at 12:15 PM CST tomorrow, January 9th in a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. The grain markets will reopen at their regular times Thursday evening and trade normal hours on Friday, January 10th, the day of the USDA S&D at 10 AM Mountain Time. The weather forecast for South America has not improved in the past 24 hours. If anything it is hotter and drier in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina and rain is in the f

Tidbits U.S. inflation  at the retail level increased 0.3% in November, the most in 7 months, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates next week to support job growth. However, the decline in the inflation rate has come to an end and the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% per year is well below the November annual rate of 3.6%.   Yesterday, the Bank of Canada reduced its base interest by 50 basis points (one-half percent) to 3.25%. Just a few months