BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Pro Farmer Final for 2023: These Pro Farmer estimates include factors like weather, maturity & areas outside the tour's coverage. Pro Farmer increased harvested corn acres by 675,000 based on the August FSA data, but they did not adjust bean acres. Soybeans and especially corn are expected to open higher Sunday given Pro Farmer yields and the weather. This will most likely be the most bullish news the corn market will get until the September 12th USDA Crop Product

Highlights Percent crop area in drought condition this week versus last week: Corn 42% versus 49%. Soybean 38% versus 43% Spring wheat 54% versus 52%. Winter wheat 43% versus 45% Ag Resource Company Illinois and Iowa Crop Survey Video (less than USDA’s August yields): https://twitter.com/i/status/1692175523886301425 China Evergrande is one of the three largest property developers in China and it has been behind on its debt service payments for 17 months. Yesterday, China Ever

Economy and Market Comment First thing this morning, there was a large “dump” of economic data that the world marketplace expected to be gloom and doom for the world’s second largest economy and world’s largest importer of food and energy. Markets around the world were on edge all day Monday and down-right scared Monday evening. The economic data was a little worse than expected for the most part, but not so bad. What shocked the market was the People's Bank of China lowere

Highlights The Corn Belt is expected to have above normal rainfall and below normal temperatures the next two weeks. Don't expect soybeans to be higher two weeks from now unless the weather forecast changes. Moscow's Vnukovo airport temporarily halted all flights Sunday due to a failed drone attack just before noon. The Chonhar Bridge is a major connection from Crimea to the battle front in Southern Ukraine for Russia to bring in weapons and troops from Crimea. The bridge w

Crop Feedback Received the following last evening from Clint, and we thank him for taking the time to give this crop report: "Roger, we took a family vacation from just north of Cincinnati, Ohio to near Ludington, Michigan. Just driving by I thought crops looked great. Going up last week, I could see quite a bit of corn that hadn't tasseled yet, coming home today, much of it has tasseled and things still looked great. A few places showing some drought stress, but honestly bet

A person is “long” a market if he makes money when the price moves higher. Likewise, if a person is “short” the market, he makes money if the price goes down. If you have unpriced corn in the bin, you are long corn in the cash market. If you have corn in the field that is not priced, you are also long the cash corn market. A person who buys corn futures is long corn in the futures market. If you have a sold corn futures position, you are short the corn futures market. If you

Pipeline Supply refers to the minimum number of bushels or tons of a commodity that are in transit to processing facilities and users to maintain a steady flow of supplies to users. It is the amount of a given commodity in the trucks leaving the farm to the processor, in the trains and barges moving to an export facility or processor, in the processor bins, in the feed delivery trucks, feed bins on the farms, and in the feeders of the feeding floor. No one knows exactly how

Highlights Russia attacked the two primary grain terminals of Ukraine for the fourth night in a row. The governor of Odessa said that two people were killed, 100 tons of dried peas and 20 tons of barley were destroyed. White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Russia is currently placing sea mines at the entrances to Ukrainian ports and targeting civilian ships carrying food to and from the region. There are rumors that truckers in Br

Highlights Early Saturday, it was reported the Wagner Group had “captured” the city of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia. A convoy of the rebel mercenaries were advancing north toward Moscow from the captured city as Putin vowed to crush the mutiny. At midday yesterday, it was announced the Wagner Group commander, Prigozhin, and Putin’s people had reached an agreement that the charge of treason against Prigozhin would be dropped and he was leaving Russia for Belarus, the co

Highlights The Corn Belt is expected to get some scattered showers off and on next week. It looks like everyone should get at least a half inch. If actual rainfall comes as predicted, for most of you it will be nice, but it will not make the corn crop. Throw-in July options expired yesterday, the markets were over-bought (too high, too fast), and it was the end of a week, profit-taking was the order of the day. We still have a week before July arrives. We are a very long way

Highlights U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet to discuss the debt ceiling today, after a "productive" phone call Sunday as the president headed home from Japan. Staff members for both sides did meet Sunday afternoon. Biden said he would be willing to cut spending with tax adjustments to reach a deal, but the latest offer from Republicans ceiling was "unacceptable." Day time high temperatures in many areas of Asia continue to be e

About Inflation "Roger, any thoughts on how bad inflation is going to get? Thanks, Mike" The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the measure of inflation at the retail level of an economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. Both indexes are a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically. The representative samples used to calculate CPI and PPI have alr

Highlights Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman in international waters in the most serious incident of a series of seizures and attacks on commercial vessels in Mideast waters since 2019. Private-sector efforts to reach a deal to rescue First Republic Bank are not getting the job done. US officials have stepped-in to “coordinate” the process. The EPA announced yesterday a waiver making E15 available this summer. The locks on the Mississippi above Lock 17 in New Bo

Highlights Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko told reporters after her report to the Duma (legislature), that Russia was considering banning wheat and fertilizer exports. Another source said the discussions included taking the government-owned wheat reserve from 3 million mts to 10 million. After producing more wheat than ever before in 2022, Russia substantially increased its wheat export tax on January first and again, to a lesser extent, on February first

Highlights Mexico has officially scrapped the ban on GMO corn imports for animal feed and industrial use that was due to start in January. Mexico still plans to prohibit glyphosate and GMO corn for human consumption. That human consumption corn has never been a sizable percent of their corn imports. President Biden Administration said yesterday morning another 26 million barrels will be released from Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as Russia cuts production. That and the C

Highlights Russia said the sanctions the West has levied against them are “a barrier” to Russia’s continuation of the grain corridor for Ukraine exports. The current deal ends March 19th. Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, raised their wheat export tax 3.5% (~US 8¢ per bushel or $2.90 per mt) effective for February 15-21st. Ukraine’s marketing year-to-date corn, wheat and barley exports are down 28.7% from a year ago. While that is no surprise, it is a lot of grain

Highlights Russia launched a heavy barrage of missile attacks on two cities in northeast Ukraine Friday and announced it will reduce crude oil production by a half million barrels a day in March. The escalation of the war and crude oil cut both hit the news wires about an hour after we sent yesterday’s mailing. We do not see the oil production cut any more than a day or two market reaction that appeared to be completely absorbed yesterday afternoon. The war escalation prompt

February CBOT options expire today. Highlights Tampa is probably the biggest port for US fertilizer coming and going. Ammonia prices were down 19% yesterday. February AA priced at $790 per mt, down from January’s $975. Natural Gas prices have declined over 50% in just the last 6 weeks, trading at the lowest price since May of 2021. It is possible that the restart of the Freeport LNG plant in Texas will cause US natural gas prices to increase as more pipeline natural gas will

Highlights Russia President Putin late yesterday morning said, "We cannot allow everything to be pulled (exported) abroad. We definitely need reserves. We do not know how the crops will yield in 2023. Look what's happening: the weather is warm in Europe. Today I spoke with the President Serdar Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan; the temperature was minus 25 (usual weather is much warmer). In Turkmenistan! In Uzbekistan; minus 23! What will happen here? We can't tell for sure! The

Russia Confirms Ukraine's Announcement A deal to extend the Black Sea grain deal was confirmed by Russia's foreign ministry early this morning. That is the reason for the weakness led by wheat. The terms are the same as the original agreement 120 days, no new Ukrainian ports included. Andrey Sizov says, "Mostly priced in probably...a panic sell-off (if we see it) could be a buying opportunity."