BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The Corn Belt is expected to get some scattered showers off and on next week. It looks like everyone should get at least a half inch. If actual rainfall comes as predicted, for most of you it will be nice, but it will not make the corn crop. Throw-in July options expired yesterday, the markets were over-bought (too high, too fast), and it was the end of a week, profit-taking was the order of the day. We still have a week before July arrives. We are a very long way

Highlights U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet to discuss the debt ceiling today, after a "productive" phone call Sunday as the president headed home from Japan. Staff members for both sides did meet Sunday afternoon. Biden said he would be willing to cut spending with tax adjustments to reach a deal, but the latest offer from Republicans ceiling was "unacceptable." Day time high temperatures in many areas of Asia continue to be e

About Inflation "Roger, any thoughts on how bad inflation is going to get? Thanks, Mike" The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the measure of inflation at the retail level of an economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. Both indexes are a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically. The representative samples used to calculate CPI and PPI have alr

Highlights Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman in international waters in the most serious incident of a series of seizures and attacks on commercial vessels in Mideast waters since 2019. Private-sector efforts to reach a deal to rescue First Republic Bank are not getting the job done. US officials have stepped-in to “coordinate” the process. The EPA announced yesterday a waiver making E15 available this summer. The locks on the Mississippi above Lock 17 in New Bo

Highlights Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko told reporters after her report to the Duma (legislature), that Russia was considering banning wheat and fertilizer exports. Another source said the discussions included taking the government-owned wheat reserve from 3 million mts to 10 million. After producing more wheat than ever before in 2022, Russia substantially increased its wheat export tax on January first and again, to a lesser extent, on February first

Highlights Mexico has officially scrapped the ban on GMO corn imports for animal feed and industrial use that was due to start in January. Mexico still plans to prohibit glyphosate and GMO corn for human consumption. That human consumption corn has never been a sizable percent of their corn imports. President Biden Administration said yesterday morning another 26 million barrels will be released from Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as Russia cuts production. That and the C

Highlights Russia said the sanctions the West has levied against them are “a barrier” to Russia’s continuation of the grain corridor for Ukraine exports. The current deal ends March 19th. Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, raised their wheat export tax 3.5% (~US 8¢ per bushel or $2.90 per mt) effective for February 15-21st. Ukraine’s marketing year-to-date corn, wheat and barley exports are down 28.7% from a year ago. While that is no surprise, it is a lot of grain

Highlights Russia launched a heavy barrage of missile attacks on two cities in northeast Ukraine Friday and announced it will reduce crude oil production by a half million barrels a day in March. The escalation of the war and crude oil cut both hit the news wires about an hour after we sent yesterday’s mailing. We do not see the oil production cut any more than a day or two market reaction that appeared to be completely absorbed yesterday afternoon. The war escalation prompt

February CBOT options expire today. Highlights Tampa is probably the biggest port for US fertilizer coming and going. Ammonia prices were down 19% yesterday. February AA priced at $790 per mt, down from January’s $975. Natural Gas prices have declined over 50% in just the last 6 weeks, trading at the lowest price since May of 2021. It is possible that the restart of the Freeport LNG plant in Texas will cause US natural gas prices to increase as more pipeline natural gas will

Highlights Russia President Putin late yesterday morning said, "We cannot allow everything to be pulled (exported) abroad. We definitely need reserves. We do not know how the crops will yield in 2023. Look what's happening: the weather is warm in Europe. Today I spoke with the President Serdar Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan; the temperature was minus 25 (usual weather is much warmer). In Turkmenistan! In Uzbekistan; minus 23! What will happen here? We can't tell for sure! The

Russia Confirms Ukraine's Announcement A deal to extend the Black Sea grain deal was confirmed by Russia's foreign ministry early this morning. That is the reason for the weakness led by wheat. The terms are the same as the original agreement 120 days, no new Ukrainian ports included. Andrey Sizov says, "Mostly priced in probably...a panic sell-off (if we see it) could be a buying opportunity."

Highlights Yesterday morning, CBOT wheat went from about 15 lower to unchanged in about ten minutes. The reason was the latest round of Russian rocket strikes on Ukraine caused the largest nuclear power plant in Europe to be completely disconnected from the power grid. The Zaporozhnya is running on 20 backup generators which have enough diesel fuel to keep them running for 15 days. Supposedly, a catastrophe of radiation exposure will occur if those generators stop before the

Highlights & Commentary When the market opens this evening, we expect: Wheat to be sharply higher, possibly up the daily limit (see daily limits below) Corn 10 to 25+ higher Soybeans 5 to 20+ higher If we are wrong, it will be much higher for corn and beans. Keep reading for the reason below. The Russians just removed 12 to 18 million mt of wheat and 30 to 35 million mt of corn from the world marketplace. That is 16% of the world carryover of wheat (not counting China’s car

Highlights Yield Report: Southern valley in North Dakota saw wheat yields around 50 bushels, which is average to a little below. Bean yields have been in the 40 to 45 range, which is disappointing and early corn yields have been coming off around 150 to 160. The corn yields are very disappointing. Thank you, Jacob Kubela, who is a grain market consultant in Wahpeton, North Dakota: jake@kubelahedging.com , (701)403 3472. Banks and government workers will have a holiday Monday

Highlights All commodities traded opposite the dollar yesterday; the dollar index was down 0.4 early and resulted in much higher commodity prices. The dollar reversed and tested Monday’s 20 year high and every commodity lost much or all of the day’s earlier gains. Friday’s Quarterly Stocks Report will provide grain and oilseeds some independence from the dollar’s exchange rate for a short while, maybe even several days. That report will be released at 10 AM Mountain Time. Pr

Highlights Remember, in dry years, the poorest yielding crops will be harvested first. Western Iowa yield report: Dry land soybeans making 20 BPA. Last year, similar ground made 60+. Dry land corn 20-50 BPA. Really good ground making 75-100 BPA. Last year would’ve made 225-250. Good ground last year 275-300. Thanks, Andrew Dr. Michael Cordonnier is a retired agronomy professor from Michigan State University College of Agriculture who is considered the authority on South Am

Highlights Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of 2022 crop soybeans to China. That is rather surprising given they just bought 3+ million mt of Argentine beans at prices $25 below US prices. What does China know that we don’t? For one thing, they have a good idea how many beans they are going to need between now and when the new crop Brazilian beans become available in late January. Keep in mind, Brazil harvested a 2022 bean crop that was 20 to 25 mil

Highlights The USDA announced yesterday morning that 517,000 mt of new crop soybeans were sold to China. Soybeans in China’s futures have rallied 80 cents per bushel the last 2 days. September grain options expire tomorrow. Usually a down day for prices, but the Pro Farmer Tour results may change that. The Tour results will be released tomorrow morning. Reuter’s Karen Braun commented yesterday: Averaging 198 bu/acre through 8 stops in W Iowa- Pottawattamie, Harrison, Crawf

Highlights Five Russian Kalibr cruise missiles were fired Saturday night from ships in the Black Sea. Two were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses while three hit agricultural targets, but there were no casualties. Russia said on Sunday the missiles had destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for U.S. made HIMARS rockets, while Ukrainian officials said a granary had been hit. Ukrainian officials also reported the city of Nikopol, which lies across the Dnipro River

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