BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Late Saturday afternoon, three of Libya’s oilfields received instructions to resume production, engineers at the fields told Reuters. A standoff between rival political factions shut most of the country's oil fields last week. The resumption order was made by the fields' operator, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, which did not provide any reasons, according to the engineers. A struggle to control the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) sparked a blockade of oil production and

Tidbits The 3-day ProFarmer tour starts on Tuesday and will cover OH, IN, IL, IA, SD, NE and MN. State yield estimates will be issued each day. ProFarmer will release its own US national yield estimates on Friday. Out of the past 10 years, ProFarmer's corn yield estimate has been below USDA's final yield by an average of 1.5% and soybean estimates averaged 2.6% below USDA’s final yield. In 2023, Pro Farmer's corn yield estimate was 168.1 bpa vs. USDA's final 177.3 (5.0% under

Highlights On Wednesday, a giddy euphoria about the US economy prevailed on the “certain” prospects for lower interest rates in September. Thursday morning, the U.S. jobs data showed 114,000 jobs were added in July; the market expected 176,000. Worse yet, the June new jobs number was revised lower from 206,000 to 179,000 and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3%, up 0.2%. That was the largest one month increase in many years. Suddenly, the giddy euphoria turned to gloom and do

Highlights Fears that China’s economy will falter and substantially reduce demand for imports of everything has been a consistent bearish theme since 2020 and the intensity increased in 2024. The real estate developers’ crushing debt has been milked for all its worth by everyone who wants grain prices to go down.   One of the two biggest developers, Evergrande, filed bankruptcy in 2023 in the USA and a Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande assets to be liquidated 6 months ago. T

Highlights Early Friday morning CrowdStrike deployed a content update to its Falcon Sensor agents, which triggered a system-level error that prevented Windows operating systems from booting properly. This resulted in a "Blue Screen of Death" or BSOD error on many Windows systems across various sectors, including banking, healthcare, government, and critical infrastructure. There is no indication of a hack; somebody simply made a mistake.     In premarket trading Friday mornin

Highlights The USDA will issue its July S&D at 11 AM Central time today.   Yesterday morning, the government reported that inflation during June declined 0.1%; the market expected it to be up 0.1% (measured by Customer Price Index or CPI). For the past 12 months, the inflation rate was 3.0%; the market expected 3.1%. The expectation of an interest rate cut in September for the past two weeks capped with yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation number sent the stocks sharply

Highlights On Friday, Safras and Mercado, a Global Agribusiness of Brazil, reduced their safrinha corn production estimate by 2.99 mil mts to 83.64 mil mts.   USDA’s monthly cold storage report showed the total beef in the freezers was down 4.7% from a year ago and pork was down 11.7% from a year ago with butter supplies up 9% and cheese stocks down 0.6%. USDA monthly Poultry Report showed in April from a year ago: Egg production: down 1% Layers on feed: down 2% Egg productio

Tidbits Open interest refers to the number of trade positions on the books. The past two days saw the largest increase in open interest of crude oil call options in history. More than 350,000 crude oil call positions were established, surpassing the record of 2019.   Israel will hold a meeting of the Military Cabinet of Ministers today. This will be the 3rd meeting since the attack by Iran over the weekend. The final decision on the military response is expected to be today.

Highlights The US stock markets took a thumping yesterday as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both reported net interest income well below analysts’ estimates. JPMorgan interest income was less than the previous quarter for the first time in almost three years and its shares had the largest decline since 2020.   Two weeks ago, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reduced their Argentine corn production estimate by 2 mil. mts. Yesterday, BAGE whacked another 2.5 mil. mts, down to 49

Highlights StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reported yesterday afternoon India shocked the global urea market by cutting their purchase in half, down from 724,000 mts to 340,000 mts. Seldom does India buy less than a million mts and often purchases ~1.5 million mts 8 to 10 times a year.   The May urea futures price (FOB NOLA) was down $30 per ton to $272.50 yesterday. There is no daily limit on urea futures. A month ago, May urea futures price was $340 per ton.      Ba

Highlights Russian officials have halted the transport of loaded bushels sold by RIF, a top 2 exporter, due to quality issues.   Market advisor, Kevin Duling of Maupin, Oregon is a wheat guy for sure. He provided us with this information last evening: It was revealed Grain Flower, the 2nd largest Russian grain exporter, could not meet quality specs on over 1 mil mts of wheat with ships in port expecting to be loaded. The Russian government would not grant phytosanitary permit

Tidbits World urea prices this past week were down ~4%, despite the Indian tender. Phosphate prices were mostly unchanged except Single Super Phosphate 20% (SSP) was a bit stronger. MOP prices were mostly steady to up ~3% at around $310 per mt CFR Brazil (delivered to the ports).   Brazil’s farmers are waiting to decide what fertilizer and seeds to purchase for the new crop growing season. Weather and prices are out of whack.   Our clients in the Southeast USA are saying cott

Tidbits The Director of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service says France is preparing to deploy 2,000 troops to Ukraine to help fight Russia. France’s President Macron, earlier this month, suggested NATO troops could support Kyiv forces. He has not ruled out the suggestion of French infantry intervention.   The Financial Times reports that the EU is set to place a 95 euro per mt tariff on grain imports from Russia and Belarus. EU imports of Russian grain hit a record 4 mil mt

Highlights NOPA posted a record February soybean crush by almost 20 mil bushels as new facilities come online and processors make up for lost ground due to January weather. The previous record for February was 166.28 mil bu. in 2020; February 2024 NOPA crush was 186.194 mil bu. (average estimate was 178). It is looking more and more like the USDA is 100 mil. bu. too low on their projected crush for this marketing year.   Agrinvest Brokers have reported Paraguay soybeans began

Tidbits Crop input purchases in the USA accelerated the past week as the dry weather has allowed field work. That is the main reason urea prices are up to $437 per ton versus $331 FOB NOLA in early January. This past week, DAP traded above $650 per ton FOB NOLA.   Analysts are saying the price of nitrogen fertilizers in the USA have gone inverted, meaning N bought now is higher priced than N bought 30 days from now and cheaper yet 60 days from now.      With increased prices

Highlights The weather outlook for Brazil’s main growing area looks to be turning drier and warmer next week. Watch the number of rain days in the 10 day forecast we report every day. The first two locations, Rondonópolis and Campo Grande, are in the central part of Brazil where most of the beans and corn are grown.     India is the world’s largest user of urea and it imports ~30% of its urea, which makes it the world’s largest importer of urea. What India pays for urea is th

Tidbits Mark has a friend near Oto in Woodbury County, Iowa who has cut two fields of beans. The first was 15 bu/ac, the second field 35 bu/ac. The war continues to escalate. Fertilizer Between January and July 2023, the United States increased purchases of fertilizers from Russia to a record US$944 million according to RIA Novosti using US Statistical Service numbers. Russia became #2 fertilizer supplier to the United States. The value of Russian fertilizer imports to the U

Highlights Russia attacked the two primary grain terminals of Ukraine for the fourth night in a row. The governor of Odessa said that two people were killed, 100 tons of dried peas and 20 tons of barley were destroyed. White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Russia is currently placing sea mines at the entrances to Ukrainian ports and targeting civilian ships carrying food to and from the region. There are rumors that truckers in Br

Nitrogen Fertilizer: Get it Priced Roger has been recommending not to forward price fertilizer, including nitrogen, for more than a year. Natural gas futures have not made a new low since June 1st when it made a double bottom (trend change indicator) and from June 25th, 3 years ago. Winter is getting closer and the war in Europe is escalating. The world's longest ammonia pipeline runs from Tolyatti Azot's plant in Russia to Odessa, Ukraine. The “Tolyatti – Odessa” pipeline u

Highlights If the front three contract months of any commodity futures settles limit up or limit down, the next day’s daily trading limit is expanded. Yesterday, soybean oil was limit-down in more than three months. That means the bean complex will have expanded limits today: Soybeans: $1.60 a bushel Bean meal: $45 a ton Bean oil: 60¢ a pound Yesterday, the EPA issued its Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) mandate for 2023 through 2025 compliance years. The ethanol blending targe