BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Corn: Karen Braun was correct when she reported yesterday that U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio at 13.3%, is the lowest for an August USDA projection in three years despite a yield 9.8 bushels above the previous record on the largest corn acreage since 1936. That is quite a testament to the magnitude of the corn demand.      Ukraine: Reuters reported last evening that European leaders and Ukraine's President Zelenskiy spoke with Trump in a last-ditch call hosted by Germa

Tidbits Basis: Delphos, Ohio Bunge soybean crush plant weakened their fall delivery basis by 5¢ to -35X (35¢ under November futures) on Monday or Tuesday. Producers Ag’s Canton, Kansas facility weakened their fall delivery corn basis by 5¢ to -35Z (35¢ under December) yesterday as did Cargill at its corn syrup plant in Dayton, Ohio to -25Z.   If you have not made a decision about setting fall delivery basis, make it today. That does not mean you should blindly set the basis o

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 128,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Oils: Karen Braun reported that the U.S. cooking oil imports fell to a 16-month low in June, but first half 2025 used cooking oil imports were up 9% from a year ago. Starting January 2026, only biofuel feedstock from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. will be eligible for the tax credits. North America soybean oil and canola oil will be the main feedstock for biofuels and

Tidbits The U.S. GDP  for the second quarter at 3%, market expected just 2.3%. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. For the first time since 1993, two Federal Reserve officials dissented from the majority decision out of total 11 votes, advocating for a rate cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, broke with the majority. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged

Tidbits The lowest September corn  closing prices this year were: $3.98 on 8 July $3.96 on 11 July $3.98½ on 23 July (yesterday)   After closing higher 4 out of 5 days, September corn has closed lower 3 consecutive days: 4¾¢, then 4½ ¢, then ¾¢ yesterday, a total of 10¢ in 3 days. The technical tool, Average Directional Index  (ADX), measures the strength of the trend, not its direction. A rising ADX suggests a strong trend, while a falling ADX indicates a weakening trend or

Tidbits December corn  has closed higher 5 of the last 6 days and for 6 consecutive days, the high for the day was higher than the previous day’s high. September corn has done the same 3 consecutive days. Tomorrow is Friday. If corn futures settle steady or higher today, it is reasonable to expect some end of the week profit-taking tomorrow. On the other hand, there are more reports each day this week of pollination problems, now coming from four Corn Belt states. Is the poll

Tidbits Estimates for USDA’s S&D  to be released tomorrow at 10 AM Mountain Time: CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) later this morning will release its revisions for Brazil’s crop production estimates.   All products from Brazil  imported to the U.S. will have a 50% tariff  separate from Sectoral Tariffs (specific product tariffs), effective 1 August, as President Trump announced yesterday in an open letter to Brazil’s president. Brazil’s President Lula responded he will use the tariff r

Tidbits In observance of  Independence Day , the Grains at the CME and MIAX will close at their normal time on Thursday, July 3rd. Then they will be closed Thursday night and Friday. They will reopen the night of Sunday, July 6th as usual. The White House announced yesterday morning a trade deal with Vietnam  had been reached, which had been expected. Trump is expected to close several trade deals prior to the July 9 deadline.   Why were corn, wheat, and beans markets so stro

Tidbits New contract lows were set in corn yesterday. July set it at $4.08 and December hit a low at $4.21. The July soybean contract traded down 21½¢ to settle at $10.25¼ and November finished down 18½¢ to settle the day at $10.18½. Soybean meal and soybean oil were lower on the day. The seasonal trend is a tough one to fight with. The Argentine province of Buenos Aires received snow yesterday for the first time in 18 years. Brazil’s  state of Paraná reported widespread fros

Tidbits U.S. grain markets are closed  and will have no day session today. Markets will be reopening for the evening session on Thursday. With the holiday, this week’s export sales report will be released on Friday, along with the cattle on feed report. The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report will be delayed until Monday. The last trading day for July grain options is this Friday. Heavy rain  fell again Tuesday in South Central Kansas and into North Central Oklahoma. There ar

Highlights Israel launched missile strikes on Iran.  Crude oil prices spiked by almost $9 but then traded $3 lower from the peak. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the goal of the strikes on Iran was to attack Iranian missile facilities, “the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme”. He stressed that the main goal was to eliminate the threat to Israel and the operation will continue “for as many days as necessary”. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated

Highlights Today at 10 AM Mountain Time, the USDA will release its June S&D . The biggest questions are what changes, if any, will USDA make on old crop corn exports and will an increase be offset by increased production from 2024 or a decrease of feed use and will the Brazilian corn crop be increased? USDA increased that crop by 4 million mts last month and most other crop predictions have been catching up to USDA’s number since then and now the average estimate is 131.5 mil

Tidbits U.S. crude  oil inventories dropped more than expected last week, it is about 7% below the five-year average, with the weekly production held steady. President Donald Trump has signed an order doubling tariffs on steel  and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%. Trump has said the measures, which came into effect on Wednesday, are intended to secure the future of the American steel industry. There has been no retaliation from the EU yet, they had warned of countermeasures

Tidbits A federal appeals court  granted a Trump administration request yesterday to reinstate the tariffs  struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday ruling President Trump overstepped his authority when he cited the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as justification for levying tariffs. The IEEPA authorizes the President to act when an unusual and extraordinary threat to the United States, originating in whole or substantial par

Tidbits Pro Farmer reports: Some yield concerns  are cropping up in Brazil , with some later-planted safrinha corn facing an increased stress in drier biased areas, most notably in center-west areas.   For anyone watching our daily rain day charts that is no surprise. The first three locations are Brazil’s safrinha corn area and the dry season clearly started the first week in May. The dry season usually means no rain. Imagine what a corn field looks like if planted in sandy

Tidbits From 19 February to 28 April, July corn lost 10¢ versus December corn. From 28 April to 13 May, the spread of July corn to December lost another 31½ cents! Yesterday, July corn gained 3½¢ on December corn, which is a huge change in direction.   From harvest until deep into the spring, when old crop prices lose on new crop prices, that is a bearish indicator, even in an up market. The opposite is also true. We should have shown more respect for what that spread was tel

Tidbits U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday morning the U.S. economy  contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Imports increased 41.3% which reduces GDP as the domestic economy does not produce imports. GDP is the measure of the value of all goods and services produced, not imported.  Many companies went on a purchasing spree in the first quarter to avoid the potential price increases caused by tariffs. First quarter contraction was a sharp reversal from

Tidbits StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reports NOLA urea values have hit $450 for the first time since the end of 2022. For reference, 2022 ended with December corn prices at $6.00.   South Korean flour mills bought 50,000 mts of milling wheat  from the U.S.   Jordan has issued a tender to buy up to 120,000 mts of milling wheat. The S&P Global Composite (services and manufacturing) Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) for the U.S. was reported at 51.2, down from last mo

Tidbits There was some progress with China yesterday. China stated it wants to see a number of steps from Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to  trade talks , including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump's cabinet. China’s leadership wants the U.S. to appoint a point person for talks with China’s top trade negotiator. California on Wednesday filed a lawsuit seeking to block U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs

Tidbits The markets will be closed on 18 April, Good Friday. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Japan. USDA's second Crop Progress  report had spring wheat now at 7% planted, corn at 4%, soybean at 2%. Winter wheat conditions fell slightly to 47% good or excellent. The USDA on Monday said it had canceled a $3 billion program for climate-smart farming  projects after a review found it did not align with the priorities of the Trump