BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybeans production estimate to 145 mil mt (USDA 156), down 2 mil mts while leaving his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 112 mil mts (USDA 124).   Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean production at 50 mil. mts (USDA 50) and corn production 54 mil. mts (USDA 55).   Agricomp Commodities downgraded Argentina’s soybean crop 1.88 mil mts to 49.5 mil mts due to recent excess heat and lack of rain. They stat

Highlights Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated Sunday night on 60 Minutes that interest rates will stay higher longer than expected and a March cut is "not likely."   Argentina will be hot and dry for a couple more days. Their crops have been hard hit by the weather the past three weeks, but rain is on the way later this week.   Meanwhile, excessive rain in the main growing areas of Brazil have been great for late planted beans, but it is making it very difficult to ha

Highlights Front month corn and beans settled slightly higher yesterday after trading modestly lower most of the day and after a key reversal on Tuesday. From a technical perspective, a positive development.    The US Census Bureau is the final word on all numbers and today the Census Bureau will report the December crush numbers. October 2023 was the largest monthly soy crush ever for the USA at 201 mil bu, but the market expects the December soy crush will be 206.1 mil. bu.

Tidbits Strategic Farm Marketing lowered their Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 12 mil mts to 145 mil mt. (USDA 157).   Weather will be quite dry the next two weeks in Argentina, where they have great crops growing.   You can see on the ENSO up-dated chart, El Niño appears to be coming to an end very quickly, which is about 30 to 60 days out after the water temperature declines below the El Niño threshold.   ENSO Update:

Highlights Reuters Global Ag Reporter Karen Braun reported after the close yesterday: "CBOT soybeans have tumbled 4% so far in 2024, soybeans' worst start to a year in exactly 40 years. Monday's low of $12.36/bu is the most-active contract's lowest since Dec. 2021. Beans are now in oversold territory per the relative strength index."  Do not mortgage the farm and buy soybean futures because Karen said the relative strength index (RSI) is in oversold territory. It has been in

Highlights The claim early yesterday morning that Ukraine’s military attacked a Russian landing ship off the coast of Crimea turned out to be true. The Russian troop landing ship, Novocherkassk, near the port city of Feodosia in the eastern coastline area of Crimea was damaged by cruise missiles. Russian officials claim the ship was merely damaged with light casualties, while an Ukrainian Air Force official said the ship was destroyed.   It was the Russian confirmation of dam

The CBOT will trade Friday from 8:30 AM to 12:05 PM Central time. It is against the law for any US futures exchange to be closed four consecutive days, therefore, futures exchanges will always trade the Friday after Thanksgiving.  Highlights Yesterday morning saw scattered showers in Brazil’s major crop area (central) with week to date rainfall a half inch (13 mm) to one and half (39 mm). The EU weather model for the next 10 days was a bit drier with moderate temperatures.  

Market Comment From Russ, who is located in Central South Dakota very close to the North Dakota border: "Our area and surrounding areas had and having the best corn crop ever. Piles all over at elevators and some elevators only taking contract or cash sales, but not many yet. A lot in fields yet. Some piles are wet 16 to 20, but normal for our area to have those piles, just not this size in a while.   So, if basis is -60 for Jan Feb, should be lock in when hauling some out, w

Highlights Instead of writing about what caused the markets to fall out of bed yesterday and how terrible yesterday’s price action was for farmers, we will put that ugliness aside and sweep it away with some good news. January beans settled 18¢ below their high yesterday and down 2¢ on the day. That was very poor market action, but China solved that problem. After the close of the CBOT yesterday, Reuters News Service reported China bought 600,000 mts of US soybeans for shi

Highlights Naomi Blohm of West Bend, WI is a Senior Market Advisor, commodity broker, speaker, with Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson. Late yesterday morning, she posted on Twitter, now “X”: "Iowa friends, please tell me about your corn basis... two clients called in to tell me about sudden, drastic improvement of cash corn prices in their neighborhoods." Responses were: NE IA, elevators all saying they won't be filled. No piles. Feed mill manager said farmers bins wer

Highlights Now that the October USDA report has been issued, we can be quite confident that the futures have made their lows for the year. Soybeans did it on May 31st and corn did it on September 19th. The USDA has lowered yields for both beans and corn four consecutive months. We will get a November production update (yield, harvested acres) from USDA, but there will be no USA production information on the December S&D, just demand changes for USA crops; the USDA will updat

A micro natural gas futures and options contract will begin trading on November 6th. The micro contract size will be 1,000 mbtu (million British Thermal Units). The current natural gas contract is 10,000 mbtu, and the mini-contract is 2,500 mbtu. Highlights The Panama Canal Authority said a surcharge for water use it had applied to conserve water during a prolonged drought will be reduced starting in October. The waterway has imposed a series of restrictions this year, inclu

Market Comment The USDA will issue its September S&D today at 11:00 AM Central. This report will either make the low for the year on corn or will confirm the low has already been made (August 16th at $4.73½). Given the December to March spread has declined from 16 to 14¼¢ and the December to July spread has moved from 28½ to 26¼¢ the past two weeks indicates the low has already been made. The return to storage will always be at its greatest when the market is at the low. I

Highlights Initial harvest reports are pointing toward smaller crops than USDA projected for soybeans and corn. Consensus is that soybeans are suffering here in September more yield loss than corn and we would agree. The nation’s corn conditions lost 3% out of the top two categories to 53%; the market expected a 2% decline. Corn in the dough stage 93% vs. 92% average. Corn dented 67% vs. 65% average. Corn maturity is 18% versus 16% average. Soybeans lost 5% to 53% good or exc

Labor Day is Monday. Markets will reopen Monday evening normal time. Carry is the return to storage. When the market sees plenty of carryover, it builds carry into the market by selling the nearby contracts and/or buying the deferred contracts. When the nearby contracts gain on the deferred contracts, the market is removing carry from the market because it does not want as much of the crop stored. If the commodity has negative carry (an inverted market), the market is scream

Highlights Yesterday’s Pro Farmer reports for Nebraska and Indiana: These much better than expected Pro Farmer yields will make it very difficult for the harvest reports to be “better than expected.” That means we can be more confident that the fall low will be made before harvest begins. So much for the 41 nations who were going to crash the dollar yesterday. The dollar index traded higher yesterday than it has since June 12th. It has gained 4% during a strong uptrend since

Highlights Last half of August is going to be hot and dry for most of the Corn Belt. Suddenly, soybeans and soybean oil are leading CBOT higher. Finally, big specs are buying bean oil and selling meal. Yesterday, November beans were up 18¼¢, September oil up 87¢ per cwt, September meal up 70¢ per ton with a settlement at $404.50. The meal puts summary: Wednesday saw another batch of better-than-expected US economic data showing that interest rates increases are most likely to

Basis Decision The cash price paid to farmers is a function of futures and basis. You need to separate the day you price them because the...

A July weekend of weather forecasts predicting two weeks of moderate temperatures and above normal rainfall for the Corn Belt will always give you sharply lower prices like we had on Monday. When it is July and rain is predicted for Iowa, corn and beans prices will be lower. Never forget that. Weather forecasts change, the market will get oversold, basis will firm, and traders with common sense will buy futures on the dip. Yesterday was not nearly as terrible as it felt. Hi

Levi near Mason City, Iowa sent this yesterday: "Silks and tassels are out, but corn is rolling with the furnace getting turned up this week. Beans across the countryside started turning yesterday." Highlights The nation’s corn crop is rated 57% good or excellent, the same as a week ago and 1% less than the market expected. The soybean crop is rated 54% good or excellent, 1% less than the market expected and 1% less than a week ago. You can read all the various crops and stat