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Tidbits, China, ENSO, Export Inspections, Markets & Rain Days Update 8/29/23

Labor Day is Monday. Markets will reopen Monday evening normal time.

Carry is the return to storage. When the market sees plenty of carryover, it builds carry into the market by selling the nearby contracts and/or buying the deferred contracts. When the nearby contracts gain on the deferred contracts, the market is removing carry from the market because it does not want as much of the crop stored. If the commodity has negative carry (an inverted market), the market is screaming that it wants the commodity now!



Corn had a very good day yesterday. After opening smartly higher, September and December corn sold off, but stayed 3 to 4¢ above Friday’s lows and both closed higher than their opening price. Four consecutive days the low trade was higher than the previous day’s low for both September and December corn. The December to July corn carry lost a half cent, which is also bullish.

Speaking of bullish, the November to July bean carry lost a whopping 6½¢ Monday! The futures market is paying only 6¢ to store soybeans from November to July. Corn futures are paying 25¾¢ to store corn from December to July, which is down from 28¼¢ one day last week.

Unfortunately, many corn and bean buyers were selling wheat. The seasonal trend turns up on wheat next week.

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