BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights On Thursday, July corn  settled above its 200 day moving average for the first time since 2 May.   Reuters News Agriculture analyst Karen Braun reports this week included: "December corn futures surged above all moving averages on Wednesday, reaching a 1-month high of $4.56 per bushel. The contract is up 4.6% so far this week. But will we eventually hit $4.70? Since at least 1973, Dec corn has never failed to return to its average February price.   At 4.18 million

Tidbits U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday morning the U.S. economy  contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Imports increased 41.3% which reduces GDP as the domestic economy does not produce imports. GDP is the measure of the value of all goods and services produced, not imported.  Many companies went on a purchasing spree in the first quarter to avoid the potential price increases caused by tariffs. First quarter contraction was a sharp reversal from

Tidbits The only excuse given for corn’s sharp losses yesterday was the planting progress being 2% more than a year ago. No doubt, yesterday being the last trading day before first notice day for deliveries on May futures had something to do with the decline. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain and 110,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. Also, an importer in Taiwan purchased 65,000 mts of U.S. corn and a South Korean im

Tidbits May options expire  this Friday, April 25th. First notice day for May futures is April 30th. Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday morning he expects the trade war  between the U.S. and China to de-escalate since current tariffs are unsustainable. The market took that to mean that the White House may reverse its decision to place a tariff of 145% on China's imports. Equity markets got another boost when President Trump confirmed he has no plans to remove Federal R

Tidbits There was some progress with China yesterday. China stated it wants to see a number of steps from Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to  trade talks , including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump's cabinet. China’s leadership wants the U.S. to appoint a point person for talks with China’s top trade negotiator. California on Wednesday filed a lawsuit seeking to block U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs

Highlights The U.S. Dollar Index  closed yesterday at the lowest level since April 2022. A lower dollar makes U.S. products more competitive in the world marketplace.   The 12 month U.S. Producer Price Index  (PPI) was reported yesterday morning at 2.7% versus 3.2% the previous month; the market expected 3.3%. For the month of March, the PPI was a negative 0.4%, versus +0.1% in February; the market expected +0.2% for March. PPI is the measure of inflation at the wholesale lev

Highlights China has responded to Donald Trump's trade tariffs by raising duties on U.S. goods by from 34% to 84% and by appealing to the...

Highlights On 2 April, Trump applied an additional 34% reciprocal tariffs on China  added to the existing 20% duties already applied to Chinese imports. Together, they bring the total tariff rate to 54%, affecting nearly $600 billion in annual trade to combat currency manipulation, dumping (selling below the cost of production) of industrial products, and a host of other lesser offenses. China responded over the weekend with a series of countermeasures, including tighter expo

Highlights The European Commission will meet today to prepare a list of U.S. products to slap additional tariff fees in response to Trump's tariffs . Insiders say the list includes meat, cereals, wine, wood, clothing, chewing gum, dental floss, vacuum cleaners, and toilet paper. The Commission has threatened a 50% tariff on U.S. bourbon which prompted Trump to threaten a 200% counter-tariff on EU alcoholic drinks.   David Perdue is President Trump’s nominee for ambassador to

The primary purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to promote fair and free global trade by developing international trade rules, resolving disputes, and facilitating negotiations and discussions on trade matters, ultimately aiming to improve global living standards and foster sustainable development. The WTO was formed in 1995 and replaced the General Agreement on Trades and Tariffs, aka GATT.   The WTO accomplishes its mission by: Administering Trade Agreements,

Tidbits At 5 AM Central yesterday morning, China announced an additional 34% tariff  on all U.S. products beginning 10 April and Reuters reported China halted poultry products imports from two unnamed American companies. China added five other countermeasures that do not appear to be ag related. Corn, beans, and wheat dropped dramatically in the 30 minutes after the news was released while us peon market watchers wondered what happened.     Corn fully recovered and settled hi

Tidbits OPEC+  is reversing its production cuts with output set to rise by more than expected in May because they see continuing healthy market fundamentals. After cutting their oil production for more than a year, OPEC+ will add 411,000 barrels per day in May. The larger-than-expected production boost by OPEC+ added to the tariff-fueled recession fears to sink oil prices more than $5 per barrel yesterday. The White House stated U.S. imports of oil, gas, and refined products

Highlights Trump Tariffs announced in the Rose Garden of the White House at a press conference 4 to 5 PM Eastern Time yesterday applied to 180 countries. The list below was identified as the greatest offenders. Note that Mexico and Canada are not on the list: Regarding Canada and Mexico, Trump’s Executive order stated, in part:     “With respect to articles from Canada and Mexico, I have imposed additional duties on certain goods to address a national emergency resulting from

Highlights Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil about the U.S. corn  outlook written Wednesday afternoon: "The short-term fundamentals of American corn are still positive. American corn is the most competitive in most destinations. The market is no longer looking at this, but at the increase in supply for the 2025-26 season. This week, corn offered by the PNW gained two more tenders in South Korea. Sales should continue to be good, but some factors are starting to

Tidbits Federal Reserve  Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday afternoon interest rates will not be changed this month, but he weighed in on the state of the US economy. His outlook was not reassuring, which was not a surprise knowing he hates Trump. Powell said Trump’s policies are one reason why inflation is reigniting. Powell said the Fed sharply reduced its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy and noted that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. Pow

Price of Crude Oil May Be Going Up Last week, the Iranian-backed Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli vessels sailing off the coast of Yemen in response to Israel’s latest blockade on Gaza. The Houthis' warning affected the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Arabian Sea.   President Trump ordered a series of airstrikes on the Houthi-held areas in Yemen on Saturday, promising to use “overwhelming lethal force” until Iranian-backed Houthi r

Highlights Early yesterday afternoon, President Trump said, "After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement until April 2nd.   Mexico’s President Sheinbaum said, "We had an excellent and respectful call in which we agreed that our work and collaboration have yielded unprecedented results, within the framework of respect for our sovereignties."   Sheinbaum

Tidbits U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said President Trump is in constant contact with both Mexico and Canadian officials regarding a possible agreement that would pull the 25% tariffs applied on Tuesday. He said Mexico's team was cooperating; Canada's team not so much.    On Tuesday, the stock markets and crude oil market crashed, in large part, due to a GDP forecasting model used by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The dollar is now 104.25 on the index, down

Highlights In response to Trump's tariffs that went into effect at 12:01 AM Tuesday, China placed an additional tariff of 15% on U.S. wheat, corn, cotton, chicken and an additional 10% on U.S. soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef and other agricultural products. Also China suspended on Tuesday the soybean import licences of three U.S. firms (CHS Inc, Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising LLC and export grain terminal operator EGT) and halted imports of U.S. logs, stepping up it

Highlights British Prime Minister Keir Starmer  said yesterday his country will supply Ukraine with 5,000 air defense missiles roughly costing US$2 billion. Starmer hosted a security summit in London Sunday attended by key persons from France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Canada, Finland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Turkey, and Romania. The group will work toward a cease-fire plan to present to the United States as an effort to end the war.