BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits It has been a very dry year for Nebraska , but South Central Nebraska sure did not need all 7 inches of rain (18cm) it received yesterday according to 247AG. Note the rainfall map:  CHS reported yesterday morning U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick said the U.S. and China  signed an agreement on Tuesday that formalizes an understanding that U.S. trade countermeasures  will be removed when China resumes rare earths exports to the U.S. He also said that Trump is ready to

Tidbits Every month the USDA issues a Cold Storage Report . They are usually not significant for grains, but Wednesday’s report showed all but one of the food categories in the nation’s commercial freezers are substantially less than a year ago: red meat down 4%; beef down 1%; pork down 7% including bellies down 26% (just before BLT season), cheese down 2%, and butter down 5%. Only American cheese inventory was up, 5% more than a year ago. “American cheese” is a distinct prod

Tidbits Reuters reported yesterday that President Trump  and China's leader Xi held a phone call  that lasted about 90 minutes. The primary topic was trade. U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in person soon, resuming formal trade negotiations. Soybeans were higher because of that news. President Trump also had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin following the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields. Vladimir Putin stated that he will be obliged to resp

Tidbits Bloomberg reports Vietnam is expected to sign deals with the U.S. to increase purchases of ag exports. Corn and DDGS are at the top of the list. Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. products and increase its purchases of U.S. products. Vietnam is the world’s third largest importer of corn. Edurdo Vanin reported last evening:  “ U.S. beans  are the cheapest for smaller vessels for Europe and North Africa for Aug and Sept shipments, even cheaper than Northe

Highlights Multiple U.S. sources, including President Trump, said yesterday that trade negotiations with China  are going nowhere and perhaps backwards. That news is not a big surprise as there has been no news about the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US-China trade deal is at risk of falling apart over rare earth minerals.   The U.S. trade deficit  narrowed to $87.6 billion in April, down $74.6 billion (46%) from a record $162.3 billion in March. The

Tidbits A U.S. trade court  on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump's tariffs from going into effect in a sweeping ruling that the president overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy. The Court of International Trade said the U.S. Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to

Highlights The CBOT ag markets will reopen this evening at their normal times. Crude oil is trading normal hours today.  President Trump announced Sunday the 50% tariff on everything from the EU was delayed from 1 June until 9 July as the EU asked for more time to prepare a comprehensive economic and trade proposal for a long term trade deal with the United States. Corn and beans were lower Friday supposedly because Trump announced the 50% tariff on everything from the EU beg

Highlights On Thursday, July corn  settled above its 200 day moving average for the first time since 2 May.   Reuters News Agriculture analyst Karen Braun reports this week included: "December corn futures surged above all moving averages on Wednesday, reaching a 1-month high of $4.56 per bushel. The contract is up 4.6% so far this week. But will we eventually hit $4.70? Since at least 1973, Dec corn has never failed to return to its average February price.   At 4.18 million

Tidbits U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday morning the U.S. economy  contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Imports increased 41.3% which reduces GDP as the domestic economy does not produce imports. GDP is the measure of the value of all goods and services produced, not imported.  Many companies went on a purchasing spree in the first quarter to avoid the potential price increases caused by tariffs. First quarter contraction was a sharp reversal from

Tidbits The only excuse given for corn’s sharp losses yesterday was the planting progress being 2% more than a year ago. No doubt, yesterday being the last trading day before first notice day for deliveries on May futures had something to do with the decline. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain and 110,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. Also, an importer in Taiwan purchased 65,000 mts of U.S. corn and a South Korean im

Tidbits May options expire  this Friday, April 25th. First notice day for May futures is April 30th. Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday morning he expects the trade war  between the U.S. and China to de-escalate since current tariffs are unsustainable. The market took that to mean that the White House may reverse its decision to place a tariff of 145% on China's imports. Equity markets got another boost when President Trump confirmed he has no plans to remove Federal R

Tidbits There was some progress with China yesterday. China stated it wants to see a number of steps from Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to  trade talks , including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump's cabinet. China’s leadership wants the U.S. to appoint a point person for talks with China’s top trade negotiator. California on Wednesday filed a lawsuit seeking to block U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs

Highlights The U.S. Dollar Index  closed yesterday at the lowest level since April 2022. A lower dollar makes U.S. products more competitive in the world marketplace.   The 12 month U.S. Producer Price Index  (PPI) was reported yesterday morning at 2.7% versus 3.2% the previous month; the market expected 3.3%. For the month of March, the PPI was a negative 0.4%, versus +0.1% in February; the market expected +0.2% for March. PPI is the measure of inflation at the wholesale lev

Highlights China has responded to Donald Trump's trade tariffs by raising duties on U.S. goods by from 34% to 84% and by appealing to the...

Highlights On 2 April, Trump applied an additional 34% reciprocal tariffs on China  added to the existing 20% duties already applied to Chinese imports. Together, they bring the total tariff rate to 54%, affecting nearly $600 billion in annual trade to combat currency manipulation, dumping (selling below the cost of production) of industrial products, and a host of other lesser offenses. China responded over the weekend with a series of countermeasures, including tighter expo

Highlights The European Commission will meet today to prepare a list of U.S. products to slap additional tariff fees in response to Trump's tariffs . Insiders say the list includes meat, cereals, wine, wood, clothing, chewing gum, dental floss, vacuum cleaners, and toilet paper. The Commission has threatened a 50% tariff on U.S. bourbon which prompted Trump to threaten a 200% counter-tariff on EU alcoholic drinks.   David Perdue is President Trump’s nominee for ambassador to

The primary purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to promote fair and free global trade by developing international trade rules, resolving disputes, and facilitating negotiations and discussions on trade matters, ultimately aiming to improve global living standards and foster sustainable development. The WTO was formed in 1995 and replaced the General Agreement on Trades and Tariffs, aka GATT.   The WTO accomplishes its mission by: Administering Trade Agreements,

Tidbits At 5 AM Central yesterday morning, China announced an additional 34% tariff  on all U.S. products beginning 10 April and Reuters reported China halted poultry products imports from two unnamed American companies. China added five other countermeasures that do not appear to be ag related. Corn, beans, and wheat dropped dramatically in the 30 minutes after the news was released while us peon market watchers wondered what happened.     Corn fully recovered and settled hi

Tidbits OPEC+  is reversing its production cuts with output set to rise by more than expected in May because they see continuing healthy market fundamentals. After cutting their oil production for more than a year, OPEC+ will add 411,000 barrels per day in May. The larger-than-expected production boost by OPEC+ added to the tariff-fueled recession fears to sink oil prices more than $5 per barrel yesterday. The White House stated U.S. imports of oil, gas, and refined products

Highlights Trump Tariffs announced in the Rose Garden of the White House at a press conference 4 to 5 PM Eastern Time yesterday applied to 180 countries. The list below was identified as the greatest offenders. Note that Mexico and Canada are not on the list: Regarding Canada and Mexico, Trump’s Executive order stated, in part:     “With respect to articles from Canada and Mexico, I have imposed additional duties on certain goods to address a national emergency resulting from