Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Crude oil gapped lower on the opening last evening and traded more than $5 lower in the first half hour of trading on the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in a matter of days. Iran: President Trump said on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran. He played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough that had been raised on Saturday. Trump said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz will remain in

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 50,580, +1,054 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $96.6, -9.06. Dollar Index settled at 99.32, +0.05. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,991, -160. Corn July futures settled at $4.63¼, +7½¢ for the week. December corn s

Tidbits U.S. Crops: On this date in 2018, December corn futures made its high at $4.29. Its low was made on 18 September at $3.42. Four of the last six years, December corn made its high for the year before this date. Parts of the Eastern Corn Belt received more than 3 inches (76 mm) in the 36 hours ending yesterday at midnight. University of Illinois ag economists report soybeans have turned profitable for Illinois farmers while corn remains in the red. Dr. Michael Cor

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 225,000 mts of old crop corn and 268,700 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 50,000 mts of old crop corn and 60,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown 117,000 mts of old crop soybean cake and 135,000 mts of new crop cake and meal to unknown The S&P 500 gained 0.4% this week, extending its winning streak to eight consecutive weeks, the longest since December 2023, while the Dow Jones added 294 points to reach an

Tidbits The CBOT grains will not trade again until Monday evening after the markets close today. The energy, equities, and interest rate futures will open normal times on Sunday. Energy futures will quit trading at 1:30 PM Monday and interest rate and equity futures will halt trading at noon Central Time Monday. China’s peak U.S. agriculture import year of $38 billion was 2022. They bought just $8 billion worth of agriculture products in 2025. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commo

Tidbits Market Comment: It is normal for the price of corn to decline when the market comes to the conclusion that the crop is going to get planted and off to a good start. Monday’s Crop Progress Report assured the market the corn crop is, in fact, off to a good start and remaining acres will easily be planted before the insurance date. Better yet, widespread rain in most of the Corn Belt on the newly planted corn was predicted and falling the past three days in many Corn Bel

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Mexico’s main meat industry group said yesterday it aims to double beef exports to the ‌United States next year, seeking to offset losses from a border closure triggered by a screwworm outbreak. In the first four months of the year, Mexican beef exports to the U.S. increased by about 23% according to officials of the Mexican ​Meat Chamber, who said fresh meat accounts for most of what is exported. The U.S. border has been closed to Mexican livestock for about a year.

Tidbits Market Comment: The CBOT markets were very disappointed last Thursday and Friday with the news from the Trump-Xi meeting. Essentially, there was no new news for corn, wheat, and soybean exports to China, which had already agreed in October to buy 25 million mts of U.S. soybeans in each of the next three marketing years beginning 1 September 2026. Given the price relationship of South American soybeans compared to U.S. soybeans, and China’s huge stockpile and productio

Tidbits Given corn, wheat, and beans all opened 14 to 20+ higher last evening, last week's heavy selling was not justified. Brazil: From AgrInvest Commodities on Saturday: "In Brazil, corn remains pressured by comfortable physical supply and low liquidity, while fertilizers are experiencing greater downward pressure on nitrogen fertilizers. Soybean premiums (basis) showed firmness despite the sharp drop on the CBOT, in a market that remains cautious and stagnant." China:

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 49,526, -83 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $105.66, +10.98. Dollar Index settled at 99.27, +1.43. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,151, +173. Corn July futures settled at $4.55¾, -15½¢ for the week. December corn

Tidbits Nebraska is the third largest corn producing state in the U.S. It produces just under 2 billion bushels of corn annually. Nebraska is now 94% under some level of drought with about 10% in exceptional drought. Brady Olson farms and ranches in northeast Montana. He said Friday: "I think we have a massive disaster/wreck in northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. Soil is drifted like snowbanks. Fertilizer that should be 3+ inches in the ground is on top. So dry an

Tidbits In hindsight, it is obvious the market was way too optimistic about what Trump’s visit to China was going to produce in the way of good news for corn and soybeans. Too many AI traders have no experience in doing business with China! What we do not like is yesterday’s low in December corn was lower than the previous correction low, which negates the higher high made earlier in the week. Officially, the price trend is now sideways, not up. The low yesterday on Novembe

Tidbits After corn and beans were up four consecutive days ending Wednesday and wheat up three consecutive days ending on Tuesday after a very bullish wheat news from USDA, all three markets were due for a correction (profit taking) yesterday. Wheat also had more serious technical and seasonal price trend reasons to fall sharply. Wednesday evening, corn, beans and KC wheat trended slightly higher until about 1 AM but failed to come close to Wednesday highs awaiting news from

Tidbits Biofuel: The U.S. House has passed the year-around E15 legislation. Now to the Senate, ​where it needs 60% of votes, and get a signature ​from President Donald Trump to be enacted. However, opinions are divided. Some experts believe that increased domestic corn consumption will help farmers who produce corn, while others believe the bill will increase fuel costs, further increasing expenses and pressure soybean producers. The U.S. PPI, producer prices index, soared 1.

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Yesterday’s S&D was decided bullish for wheat, friendly for soybeans and longer term friendly for corn because the world corn carryout on 31 August 2027 is projected to be a 77 day supply. Four years ago this week, December corn traded to $7.66 with the world new crop corn carryout projected to be a 94 day supply. Granted, the U.S corn carryout that year was projected to be 34 day supply whereas this year’s domestic new crop corn carryover is projected to be a 44 day

Old crop carryovers were just about as expected for everything except world wheat was 3.8 million mts less than expected and 2.8 million mts less than the lowest estimate. That small old crop wheat carryover and short new crop production made the new crop wheat world carryover just above the lowest estimate and well below expectations. World new crop corn carrover was 9.2 million mts less than expected. Note the world corn carryover has been relatively tight for several y

Tidbits The USDA will release its May S&D at 11 AM Central today, which will include the first of 36 monthly estimates for the 2026/27 crops. Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 220,000 mts of old crop corn, 160,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico and 128,000 mts of old crop to South Korea. China’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%. President Trump will arrive in Chi

Tidbits After Iran rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war, on Sunday, President Trump rejected Iran's counter response to the U.S. proposal. Crude oil opened $2.77 higher at $98.19 last evening and then traded as high as $98.85 in the first hour of trading and higher from there. Iranian state media said the response focused on ending the war on all fronts and on the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz without indicating how or when the waterway might reopen