Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Highlights March CBOT options expire today which usually means lower prices. The expected hot weather in Argentina this weekend sent soybeans higher yesterday, but not so much the corn. We think the faint rumors from the New York Times of a Trump trade deal with China boosted soybeans more than weather. Due to high prices, India cancelled the purchase of 70,000 mts of Malaysian palm oil which had been scheduled for delivery March through June. Sunflower oil futures rose above

Highlights President Putin announced yesterday the restoration of U.S. and Russia diplomatic ties as the peace talks accelerate. Reuters News service confirmed the agreement was reached Tuesday, the first day of the negotiations in Saudi Arabia on ending the war. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered their Argentine corn production estimate by 1 million mts to 46 million (USDA 50). Corn condition rating this week is down to 16% in good/excellent and up to 49% poor/very poo

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel, fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn situation after the close Tuesday, February 18, 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $5.02½, +18½¢ since last Tuesday. Tue

Highlights Yesterday, Saudi Arabia hosted the first talks between Russia and the U.S. since the start of the war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump commented on their outcome, here are the main points: Trump called the meeting between the U.S. and Russian delegations ‘very good’ and admitted that after it he became ‘much more confident’ in reaching a deal on a settlement in Ukraine; Trump said he was not against sending European troops to Ukraine, but there would be no Americ

Highlights There were rains of 2.5 to 3.5 inches across a wide area of Argentina’s crop land yesterday and more rain is expected this Sunday through Wednesday next week. AgRural reported yesterday Brazil’s soybean crop was 23% harvested as of last Thursday, an increase from 15% last week. They say the second crop corn is 36% planted. Ag Resource estimates that 24% of the soybeans have been harvested and about 30% of the second-crop safrinha corn was planted across Brazil as o

Tidbits Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate one million mts to 171 million due to “surprising harvest progress in central Brazil last week and the anticipation of another good harvest week this week.” Alê Delara is an agronomist and farmer in the Brazilian state of Paraná in Southern Brazil. Yesterday he said, “Here come the beans! We will probably have the highest productivity here on the farm since we started with soybeans.” Kory Melby is t

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled at 44,303, -241.26 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $71.06, -2.75. Dollar Index settled at 108.1, -0.40. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 815, +80 for the week. Corn March futures at $4.96¼, +8¾¢ for the week. December futures at $4.73, +7¢ for the week. Basis (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures)

Tidbits Agriculture futures markets will not trade until tomorrow evening at normal times. Crude oil will trade normal hours this evening...

Highlights We have reported many times the past year that the world has consumed more wheat than it produced the past four years. Not so anymore. The USDA changed the S&D situation for the 2022-23 marketing year to 789.89 million mts of production and 789.58 million mts of consumption. This marketing year wheat production is projected to be 793.79 million mts and consumption 803.72 million mts. So, this year will be the third consecutive year of reduced carryover and fourth o

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Agriculture futures markets are closed Monday, President’s Day. Highlights Was yesterday’s soybean action the signal that the market has started to believe the monster soybean crop in Brazil will get harvested? Or was it the tariff threats, the possibility the war in Eastern Europe will soon come to an end, or the sharply lower crude oil reducing the value of bean oil, or something else? In any case, March beans traded lower than any day since 17 January. During the course of

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel, fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn situation after the close Tuesday, February 11, 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.84, -10½¢ since last Tuesday. Tues

Highlights The USDA made no changes on the domestic corn and soybean S&D other than increasing the average price expected to be paid to...

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Friendly Soybeans Slightly Friendly Wheat 10 Minutes After the Report: March Corn -1 March beans -2...

Highlights At 11 AM Central time this morning, the USDA will release its monthly S&D. We sent the estimates to you as part of Saturday’s mailing. We expect the numbers to be friendly corn, negative for soybeans, neutral to friendly wheat. Brazil’s situation paraphrased from AgrInvest last evening: “Soybean basis for the export market is rising, especially for March shipments. Sales are increasing rapidly, but soybean stocks at ports are still low. Soybean sales by farmers thi

Highlights Who Has the Power in the Corn Market? You have probably heard or read that farmers and grain elevators need speculators in the futures market. It is true, although most of us farmer types still do not have a fond attitude toward speculators, similar to the attitude people had toward bounty hunters in the Old West. There are two corn markets, namely the cash market and the futures market. If you have corn in the bin or expect to grow corn in 2025 but have not

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled at 44,303, -241.26 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $71.06, -2.75. Dollar Index settled at 108.1, -0.40. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 815, +80 for the week. Corn March futures at $4.87½, +5½¢ for the week. December futures at $4.66, +5¾¢ for the week. Basis (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures

Tidbits President Trump has paused the imposition of tariffs on small-value packages arriving from China to give federal agencies time to...

Highlights The weather pattern Mato Grosso and Goias through Wednesday is expected to allow a sharp advance in the harvest pace. Weather forecasts indicate alternating rain and sun, with higher temperatures. Elevators in Mato Grosso reported a three to fourfold increase in soybean deliveries the past two days. Crushers report very low protein content (below 33%), but high oil content. In Brazil’s leading corn and bean producing state, Mato Grosso (MT), the prices in July fo

Highlights Crude oil futures lost a dollar Thursday morning and closed about 40¢ lower after President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise U.S. oil production to lower energy costs. That statement unnerved traders despite Trump also said sanctions would be enforced and new sanctions applied that would eventually drop Iran’s crude oil exports to zero. Iran exported about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, up from 1.4 in 2023 and 900,000 barrels per day in 2022. With crud