BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Corey Lavinsky, a biofuel  analyst with S&P Global, reported yesterday morning the EPA proposed to reduce the value of RINs by 50% for biofuels that are imported or made in the U.S. using foreign feedstocks. EPA also proposed biofuel volume requirements for 2026 & 2027 are much higher than most people's expectations for Biomass-based diesel (BBD).   The EPA proposal requires total biofuel blending volumes at 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion in 2027; the

Highlights Israel launched missile strikes on Iran.  Crude oil prices spiked by almost $9 but then traded $3 lower from the peak. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the goal of the strikes on Iran was to attack Iranian missile facilities, “the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme”. He stressed that the main goal was to eliminate the threat to Israel and the operation will continue “for as many days as necessary”. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat    40 Minutes After the Report: July Corn unchg Dec corn -1 July beans -9...

Highlights Today at 10 AM Mountain Time, the USDA will release its June S&D . The biggest questions are what changes, if any, will USDA make on old crop corn exports and will an increase be offset by increased production from 2024 or a decrease of feed use and will the Brazilian corn crop be increased? USDA increased that crop by 4 million mts last month and most other crop predictions have been catching up to USDA’s number since then and now the average estimate is 131.5 mil

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in ord

Tidbits Yesterday at midday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the trade talks  with China in London were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night but said they could run into Wednesday. Later, he said the two sides have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between their respective presidents. ADM reports Trump is looking at rolling back the port fees  on China vessels scheduled to take effect in October. Dr. Cordonnier i

Tidbits Former Minnesota farmer, now Brazil’s 25-year experienced agricultural consultant, Kory Melby, posted on X yesterday afternoon: “I think today's corn market action will reverse quickly in the coming days as the models revert back to old forecasts. I think today was a counter trend move fake out.” Cash soybean export trader, Eduardo Vanin, with AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil reported yesterday soybeans from Brazil net cost  to China for September shipment was 215¢ ove

Tidbits Argentina's  Rosario Grain Exchange is warning that the country stands to lose significant corn and soybean meal export share to Vietnam in the wake of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal.   In the area of Boa Esperança Do Norte, Mato Grosso  a record yield of safrinha corn was announced: 223 bushels/acre (233.16 60Kg-bags/hectare).    AgRural raised Brazil’s  corn production to 128.5 million mts (USDA 130), supporting medium-term supply. However, AgRural warns early planting i

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,763, +493 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $64.77, +4.01. Dollar Index  settled at 99.2, -0.24. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,633, +215 for the week. Corn July futures  at $4.42½, -1½¢ for the week. December futures at $4.49¼, +10¾¢ for the week. Basis   (N = July; e.g. 10N means 10¢ over July f

Tidbits A bear spread is when a trader sells the nearby futures contract and buys the deferred futures contract.   A bull spread is when a trader buys the nearby futures contract and sells the deferred futures contract.   When there is plenty of old crop and no chance of a shortage of old crop, the old crop futures price will be below the new crop price. Why? The new crop is not made yet and it is at a higher price because of the weather risk. The old crop corn is in the bin.

Tidbits President Trump  said his senior administration officials will meet with their Chinese  counterparts in London for trade talks on June 9. Trump also confirmed that he and Xi agreed to visit each other once in China and again in the U.S.   China  has called for improving bilateral ties with Canada and is willing to work with Canadian officials to address each other’s concerns according to Chinese Premier Li Qiang.   The EU  agriculture commissioner has said the EU is o

Tidbits Reuters reported yesterday that President Trump  and China's leader Xi held a phone call  that lasted about 90 minutes. The primary topic was trade. U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in person soon, resuming formal trade negotiations. Soybeans were higher because of that news. President Trump also had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin following the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields. Vladimir Putin stated that he will be obliged to resp

Tidbits U.S. crude  oil inventories dropped more than expected last week, it is about 7% below the five-year average, with the weekly production held steady. President Donald Trump has signed an order doubling tariffs on steel  and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%. Trump has said the measures, which came into effect on Wednesday, are intended to secure the future of the American steel industry. There has been no retaliation from the EU yet, they had warned of countermeasures

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in order

Tidbits Bloomberg reports Vietnam is expected to sign deals with the U.S. to increase purchases of ag exports. Corn and DDGS are at the top of the list. Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. products and increase its purchases of U.S. products. Vietnam is the world’s third largest importer of corn. Edurdo Vanin reported last evening:  “ U.S. beans  are the cheapest for smaller vessels for Europe and North Africa for Aug and Sept shipments, even cheaper than Northe

Tidbits The USDA reported the crush numbers for April after the close yesterday. The soybean crush was 202 million bushels. That is 13.5% more beans crushed this past April than April 2024! The canola crush was 161,022 tons, down 14.6% from a year ago. Cottonseed once refined was 24.7 million lbs, down 12%. The April corn crush was 475 million bushels, up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol was also up 1% at 426 million bushels. In April, Canadian canola  crushing was 0.92 m

Tidbits USDA April crush numbers  for soybeans, canola, and corn will be issued 2 PM Central today.   Over the weekend, India  reduced the tariff  on all vegetable oils by 10%. Domestic veg oil supplies are priced higher than any imported oil, according to Tushar Agarwal, market analyst for edible oils.   Yesterday, Ukraine  launched a massive drone strike on Russia  sending drones 2,670 miles (4300 kms) past the battle line, deeper into Russia than ever before. Drone hit mul

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,270, +667 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $60.76, -1.00. Dollar Index  settled at 99.44, +0.34. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,418, +78 for the week. Corn July futures  at $4.44, -15½¢ for the week. December futures at $4.38½, -12¼¢ for the week. Basis   (N = July; e.g. 10N means 10¢ over July f

Tidbits President Trump said Friday evening he increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%.  Head-and-Shoulders Formation A head-and-shoulders  formation is a technical indicator of a trend change from up to sideways or down. Such formations are formed on charts where one vertical line (a bar) represents the trading range for one day or one week. During a few weeks multiple bars form a pattern that resembles a head above a left and right shoulder. Usually

Highlights Multiple U.S. sources, including President Trump, said yesterday that trade negotiations with China  are going nowhere and perhaps backwards. That news is not a big surprise as there has been no news about the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US-China trade deal is at risk of falling apart over rare earth minerals.   The U.S. trade deficit  narrowed to $87.6 billion in April, down $74.6 billion (46%) from a record $162.3 billion in March. The