Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Today is when President Trump said his tariffs on various imported products from multiple countries will be announced. The market has probably overestimated the impact of these tariffs. Yesterday, the USDA reported total crush for February after the CBOT closed. The corn crush was 465 million bushels, down 6% from a year ago; corn crushed for ethanol was 421 million bushels, down 5%. The soybean crush was 189 million bushels, 2% less than a year ago. The canola cr

Tidbits President Trump and President Putin are scheduled to have a phone conversation this morning regarding the negotiations of a ceasefire and possibly the end to the Ukraine/Russia war. The discussion will be centered on the allocation of assets, primarily of land and power plants that must be settled before a lasting peace can be maintained. Mark Carney was sworn in as the first new Canadian prime minister in nine years on Friday. He visited the UK and France as his firs

Highlights CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) updated its production estimates yesterday (all numbers are million mts): Soybeans: 167.369, up 1.346 from last month (USDA 169) All Corn: 122.760, up 440,000 (USDA 126) Second crop corn: 95.515, down 533,000 (USDA NA) The basis for corn, soybean, and soybean meal in Brazil was firmer yesterday despite the higher futures prices. In Argentina, the Rosario Stock Exchange has once again reduced its projection for the corn harvest by 1.5 million

Highlights President Trump will give his State of the Union Address this evening at 8 PM Central Time. He says he will make a major announcement. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would impose tariffs on "external" agricultural products starting April 2, urging American farmers to increase domestic production. In a Monday social media post, he stated, “Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural products to be sold INSIDE of the United States.” However, he di

Highlights NOPA crush in December was 206.604 million bushels, up 7% from November and up 6% from a year ago. This is the largest monthly NOPA crush ever recorded. New crush records have been set in the past four months and 10 of the past 12 months. The range of expectations were 202.0 and 209.5 million bushels, with the average of 205.5. Soy oil stocks were 1.236 billion pounds, up from 1.084 billion last month, but 17 million pounds less than expected. Soy oil inventory is

Highlights The USDA released its November crush numbers yesterday after the close: Soybean crush was 210 million bu., 10 million more than the same month a year ago. Canola crush was 211,013 tons, down from 219,843 tons a year ago. Corn crushed for all purposes was 514 million bu., up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol crush was 465 million bu., up 2% from a year ago. StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop 5.2 million mts to 171.4 million mts (USDA

Highlights Yesterday, S&P Global reported China’s PMI rose to 51.5 in November, the highest since June as new export orders rose for the first time in four months. The market expected China’s PMI to be only 50.5. This is one the strongest one-month PMI gain ever for any country! China's November factory production expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November. New orders, including those from abroad, led to a solid rise in production, pushing manufacturers' optimism

Highlights The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) soybean crush was an all-time monthly high in October. NOPA members crushed 199.959 million bu., eclipsing the record of 196.406 million bu. set in March of 2024. To learn all about NOPA, go to: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/about-the-nopa "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates", said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday during a speech in Dallas. T

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 715,800 mts of old crop corn to Mexico 65,532 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown 30,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to India The USDA reported the September crush numbers for: Soybeans: Crush was 187 million bushels, 12 million more bushels (6.8%) than a year ago. The soy oil inventory at the end of September was 5% more than a year a

Highlights Late last evening local time, Iran reportedly launched 186 missiles at Israel, which the Iranian regime said was in retaliation to the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders by Israel. Israeli air defense capabilities were actively engaging the incoming Iranian munitions, but warned the defense network is not airtight and urged civilians to follow safety advisories from the Israeli military’s Home Front Command. That news sent crude oil cash prices more than $3 hig

Highlights The USDA reported the crush numbers for July: Soybean crush in July was 193 million bushels, 8 million bushels more (4.3%) than a year ago. Corn crush was 527 million bushels, 4% more than a year ago. Corn for ethanol was 474 million bushels, also 4% more than a year ago. Canola crush was 230,516 tons, 10.1% more than a year ago. Cottonseed once refined was 32.8 million pounds, 27% more than a year. USDA will issue the next S&D on Thursday, 12 September. Trad

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected. Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y

Highlights Agrinvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning comments: "Basis FOB Brazil and CFR China dropped quickly last week. Over the last 30 days, the roller-coaster of basis in the CFR China market has been intense. China is covered more than 80% of July shipment, but less than 15% for August. Sino is rotating stocks. A new soybean auction was announced for this week (990,000 tons). More trades were reported out of Argentina and the US Gulf during the week, but nu

Highlights The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate hike was "unlikely" and that his baseline scenario is still for inflation to cool and pave the way for lower interest rates. There will be some “quantitative easing” starting in June, meaning some movement to increase the money supply. As we expected, the Fed will not make a serious effort to get inflation lower in the Presidential election year. The USDA crush report for Ma

Highlights The Washington Post reported yesterday a person was infected with the bird flu in Texas who had contact with infected dairy cattle. This is the first bird flu case since 2022. The cattle futures dropped like a rock following the release of the headline, but did not settle limit down. The Central US from the Gulf into Canada is expected to receive above normal rainfall over the next 14 days. Rain makes grain, especially corn. The weather forecast for rain is why c

Highlights NOPA posted a record February soybean crush by almost 20 mil bushels as new facilities come online and processors make up for lost ground due to January weather. The previous record for February was 166.28 mil bu. in 2020; February 2024 NOPA crush was 186.194 mil bu. (average estimate was 178). It is looking more and more like the USDA is 100 mil. bu. too low on their projected crush for this marketing year. Agrinvest Brokers have reported Paraguay soybeans began

Highlights The USDA reported the total crush numbers for January yesterday at 2 PM Central Time. The US processors crushed 195 mil bu of soybeans, ~4 mil more bushels than January a year ago. Canola crush was 203,989 tons in January 2024, slightly less than the 204,340 tons a year ago. Cottonseed once refined oil production, at 25.3 million pounds, was down 32% from a year ago. Soybean meal inventory at the end of the months of January 2023 was 397,638 tons; at the en

The CBOT will reopen Monday evening instead of Sunday evening in observance of Presidents’ Day. Tidbits NOPA soybean crush in January 2024 was 185.78 mil bu of soybeans, a record large crush for any January and 3.8% more than a year ago. The market expected 189.928 mil bu. Soy oil stocks at the end of January were 1.507 bil lbs, the largest end-month supply in six months and above market expectations of 1.409 bil lbs. However, and more importantly, the bean oil inventory w

Tidbits The NOPA August soybean crush was 161.453, 6.35 million bushels less than the market expected. That was an 11-month low and down 6.8% from July and down 2.5% from August of last year, which is not so bad. The soybean oil stocks in the NOPA report were at 1.25 billion pounds vs. 1.483 billion expected, down 18.2% from July and down 20.1% from a year ago. Get this: the soy oil supplies are at the lowest level since October 2017… that was 6 years ago, Folks. To learn a

Highlights Crop conditions and progress reports yesterday afternoon were slightly supportive for wheat. Corn, at 26% planted, was slightly less than trade expected, but in line with the 10-year average. Full report for all crops and states at: https://grainstats.com/ The 6 to 10 day forecast predicts above normal rainfall from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico for all crop areas, including the PNW, except Michigan, Northern Ohio and Eastern Colorado. JP Morgan acquired First R