BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The USDA reported the crush numbers for July: Soybean crush in July was 193 million bushels, 8 million bushels more (4.3%) than a year ago.   Corn crush was 527 million bushels, 4% more than a year ago. Corn for ethanol was 474 million bushels, also 4% more than a year ago. Canola crush was 230,516 tons, 10.1% more than a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined was 32.8 million pounds, 27% more than a year.   USDA will issue the next S&D on Thursday, 12 September. Trad

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected.   Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y

Highlights Agrinvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning comments: "Basis FOB Brazil and CFR China dropped quickly last week. Over the last 30 days, the roller-coaster of basis in the CFR China market has been intense. China is covered more than 80% of July shipment, but less than 15% for August . Sino is rotating stocks. A new soybean auction was announced for this week (990,000 tons). More trades were reported out of Argentina and the US Gulf during the week, but n

Highlights The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate hike was "unlikely" and that his baseline scenario is still for inflation to cool and pave the way for lower interest rates. There will be some “quantitative easing” starting in June, meaning some movement to increase the money supply. As we expected, the Fed will not make a serious effort to get inflation lower in the Presidential election year.         The USDA crush report for Ma

Highlights The Washington Post  reported yesterday a person was infected with the bird flu in Texas who had contact with infected dairy cattle. This is the first bird flu case since 2022. The cattle futures dropped like a rock following the release of the headline, but did not settle limit down.   The Central US from the Gulf into Canada is expected to receive above normal rainfall over the next 14 days. Rain makes grain, especially corn. The weather forecast for rain is why

Highlights NOPA posted a record February soybean crush by almost 20 mil bushels as new facilities come online and processors make up for lost ground due to January weather. The previous record for February was 166.28 mil bu. in 2020; February 2024 NOPA crush was 186.194 mil bu. (average estimate was 178). It is looking more and more like the USDA is 100 mil. bu. too low on their projected crush for this marketing year.   Agrinvest Brokers have reported Paraguay soybeans began

Highlights The USDA reported the total crush numbers for January yesterday at 2 PM Central Time.   The US processors crushed 195 mil bu of soybeans, ~4 mil more bushels than January a year ago.   Canola crush was 203,989 tons in January 2024, slightly less than the 204,340 tons a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined oil production, at 25.3 million pounds, was down 32% from a year ago.   Soybean meal inventory at the end of the months of January 2023 was 397,638 tons; at the en

The CBOT will reopen Monday evening instead of Sunday evening  in observance of Presidents’ Day. Tidbits NOPA soybean crush in January 2024 was 185.78 mil bu of soybeans, a record large crush for any January and 3.8% more than a year ago. The market expected 189.928 mil bu.   Soy oil stocks at the end of January were 1.507 bil lbs, the largest end-month supply in six months and above market expectations of 1.409 bil lbs. However, and more importantly, the bean oil inventory w

Tidbits The NOPA August soybean crush was 161.453, 6.35 million bushels less than the market expected. That was an 11-month low and down 6.8% from July and down 2.5% from August of last year, which is not so bad. The soybean oil stocks in the NOPA report were at 1.25 billion pounds vs. 1.483 billion expected, down 18.2% from July and down 20.1% from a year ago. Get this: the soy oil supplies are at the lowest level since October 2017… that was 6 years ago, Folks. To learn a

Highlights Crop conditions and progress reports yesterday afternoon were slightly supportive for wheat. Corn, at 26% planted, was slightly less than trade expected, but in line with the 10-year average. Full report for all crops and states at: https://grainstats.com/ The 6 to 10 day forecast predicts above normal rainfall from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico for all crop areas, including the PNW, except Michigan, Northern Ohio and Eastern Colorado. JP Morgan acquired First R

Highlights Wayne Bacon of Hammersmith Marketing LTD said the fine print of the EPA’s biofuel mandates for 2023 and 2024 issued Wednesday added rapeseed as an acceptable vegetable oil for biofuels and that was the reason bean oil lost 10% of its value. When the mandate targets were announced, we reported they were about as expected, but the bean oil price was falling out of bed. The only logical reason was too many spec longs were disappointed. Well, yes, they were disappoint

Highlights Unfortunately, politicians will be the main market movers for the foreseeable future. Russia once again began bombing...

Highlights Yesterday morning, it was reported that Putin said the grain corridor deal was "back on". A few hours later, the Russian Ag Minister said "no guarantee" of safe passage. About that time, reports of the Russians fired at civilian tugboats transporting barges with Ukrainian grain near Ochakiv, Ukraine. Two crew members were killed, one with injuries was rescued and a fourth is missing. There were half a dozen public exchanges yesterday about grain corridor deal being

Highlights The S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released Monday. A PMI of 50 means the managers who do the buying for their business plan to buy the same number of inputs next month as they did the previous month. The S&P Index PMI, which includes US services and manufacturing was 47.3 in October, down from 49.5 in September. We did not think this news was nearly as significant as the market did. Certainly, China’s announcement it will continue its “zero covid” policy