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Tidbits, Ukraine & Poland, Markets & Rain Days Update 11/16/22

Highlights


Unfortunately, politicians will be the main market movers for the foreseeable future.

Russia once again began bombing Ukraine’s capital city, Kiev. Yesterday morning Russia launched over 100 missiles. But the market still thought the grain corridor deal was going to be extended and all the CBOT prices were lower yesterday morning.

Around midday yesterday, it was reported two missiles (looks more like artillery or stationary bomb damage) hit a grain facility in Poland, near the Ukrainian border, a very long way from Kiev. Two people were reportedly killed. Here is the photo:

Shortly thereafter, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that the reports from the Polish media and officials about the fall of "Russian" missiles in the area of Przewoduv, Poland were a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation.

Poland is a member of NATO. The NATO charter states that a military attack on any NATO member shall be considered an attack on every NATO member and all NATO members are obligated to respond.

There is little doubt that this bombing was done by Ukraine operatives or supporters of Ukraine. Russia has absolutely nothing to gain by such an attack and a whole lot to lose. Ukraine, on the other hand, has a huge amount to gain. In recent weeks, Europe and the USA informed Ukraine that the folks back home were getting restless about the billions of dollars sent every month to Ukraine to continue the war. Several European countries’ citizens have held major events to protest the amount of money going to Ukraine for the past nine months with no end in sight.

Coincidentally, it became known over the weekend that President Zelensky of Ukraine was “investing” millions and millions of US dollars with the Crypto Currency Exchange, FTX, and FTX was the second largest (George Soros #1) contributor to the Democratic National Committee in the months before the US election. Some folks in the US were not happy to learn that US taxpayers’ money went to support Democratic candidates.

FTX filed bankruptcy yesterday, having lost 22 billion US dollars in investments and another 2 billion US dollars are just gone without a trace.

Clearly, the Biden Administration and Zelensky were desperate to turn attention away from the FTX scandal and what better way than to have Russia attack a member of NATO?

 

Tidbits


The US inflation rate in October at the wholesale level was two-tenths of a percent less than last month. That contributed to a weaker dollar early yesterday.

The NOPA October soybean crush was 184.464 million bushels, as the market expected. Soyoil inventory was slightly below the trade guess, but 17% less than a year ago.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia tendered for 550,000 mt of wheat. Yesterday, it was announced the Saudi’s bought 1.05 million mt of wheat at an average price of $10.41 per bushel CFR (cost of product and freight, but no insurance, US$382.60 per mt CFR).

Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of:

  • 230,185 mts of corn to Mexico

  • 261,272 mts of soybeans to Mexico

2010 to 2023 net soybean crush profit per bushel:


 

Market Data


This morning:

Crude oil is at $87.27, up $0.35

The dollar index is at 106.20, down 0.20

December palm oil is at 3,921 MYR, up 1. The contract high was made April, 29th at 6,384 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton is at $90.59, up $1.85 per cwt. The contract high was made May, 17th at $133.79 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

December natural gas is at $5.991, down 0.043. The contract high was made August, 23rd at $10.119. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

December ULSD is at $3.6676 per gallon, up 0.0263. The contract high was made June, 17th at $4.0719. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.

December Dow Futures is at 33,685, up 80. The lifetime high is 36,832 on January 5th, 2022.

 

Rain Days Update


The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

Explanation of Rain Days