BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 22,000 mts of soybean oil to South Korea.   Tariffs:  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier this coming week in Madrid to discuss national security, economic and trade issues.   The Financial Times reports the U.S. is pushing a plan for all G7 partners to adopt steep tariffs on China and India because of their purchasing of Russian crude oil.   Brazil:  The former con

Tidbits Economy: Yesterday’s news that shocked the financial markets was the number of new jobs reported by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics for the 12 months ending in March 2025 was actually 911,000 less. This news comes after last week’s report that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years. The revision means nonfarm payroll gains averaged about 71,000 per month, instead of the reported 147,000

Tidbits A Chinese commerce  minister is scheduled to visit the U.S. and talk to trade deputies. While this is not part of the ongoing negotiations, it is seen as a goodwill gesture. The human case of screwworm  reported this week by U.S. health officials is the country's only one so far this year and poses no risk to the farm sector, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official said on Tuesday. Crude oil was lower yesterday, despite the Ukraine conflict and its impact on Russian

Tidbits Brazil:  IMEA is a professional organization for Mato Grosso farmers, Brazil’s leading agricultural state. IMEA reported that cotton harvest for the state is 55.2% complete. Last year at this time, cotton harvest was 74.2% complete and the five years average is 78.6%. Farmers want to plant soybeans in those cotton fields in two weeks!   In Brazil, the second corn crop harvest is well underway, but the weather is predicted to turn wet and cold the first week of Septemb

Tidbits Inflation: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the July producer price index (PPI) increased 0.9% from June, the largest one month advance since pandemic consumer inflation peaked in June 2022. The market was expecting a 0.2% increase. Many economists and politicians say the increased pace of inflation at the wholesale level of the economy reflects the cost of Trump's tariffs. In any case, wholesale inflation will soon find its way into the retail market as w

Tidbits Export Markets by Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities Saturday 9 August 2025: Soybean Premiums (basis)  Continue to Rise, Brazilian Corn Can't Compete   This past week the soybean market was marked by intense demand from China, which purchased more than 40 vessels. This strong demand is driving up premiums for Brazilian soybeans, making them increasingly expensive and difficult to trade, not only due to rising prices but also due to logistical challenges and a lack

Tidbits The USDA reported the June 2025 crush numbers  on Friday: Soybeans: 197 million bushels, up 7.6% from a year ago, the market expected 196.6 million bushels; Canola: 166,486 tons, down more than 15%; Cottonseed: once refined oil production down 13%; Corn: 498 million bushels in total and 448 million bushels for ethanol, both were down very slightly from a year ago.       The Labor Department’s  statistics chief was fired Friday by Trump. The weaker-than-expected July j

Tidbits The U.S. GDP  for the second quarter at 3%, market expected just 2.3%. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. For the first time since 1993, two Federal Reserve officials dissented from the majority decision out of total 11 votes, advocating for a rate cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, broke with the majority. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged

Tidbits The talk of poor pollination for corn  is getting some legs to stand on. It is three weeks too early to put a number on the potential yield impact because most of the corn has not pollinated yet, but pollination problems on this corn early corn are definitely worse than normal. Other problems with Tarpspot and fungicide being washed away in many areas. The fast growing corn plants have not only restricted the release of pollen, but agronomists are beginning to find ve

Tidbits Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities of Brazil corn and soybean Saturday comments: "Brazilian soybeans shipped in September are among the most expensive on the market, surpassing those of the US and Argentina, making negotiations with China difficult. Meal, in turn, is so cheap that even Argentine shipments are competing with local products in Asia, creating a scenario of tight crushing margins. Meanwhile, soybean premiums (basis)  rose 20 cents this week, and Braz

Tidbits At 11 AM Central today, the USDA will issue its monthly S&D. Yesterday, we sent the July S&D estimates , but for the 2024 S&D, not for 2025! We humbly apologize. Here are the estimates for today’s report from USDA (note the U.S. carryout projection for old and new crop corn are both slightly less than the June carryout numbers): CONAB increased its corn production forecast for Brazil by 3.72 million mts to a record 131.97 million mts (USDA 130), with the safrinha crop

Tidbits The U.S. Senate passed its version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act , a ten-year fiscal package which would serve as the vehicle for fulfilling President Donald Trump’s campaign promises on tax cuts and border security. Vice-President Vance cast the tie-breaking vote after all Democrat and three Republican senators voted “No” on the measure: Sens. Rand Paul, Thom Tillis, and Susan Collins. The bill will now go back to the House of Representatives, which will accept o

Tidbits It has been a very dry year for Nebraska , but South Central Nebraska sure did not need all 7 inches of rain (18cm) it received yesterday according to 247AG. Note the rainfall map:  CHS reported yesterday morning U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick said the U.S. and China  signed an agreement on Tuesday that formalizes an understanding that U.S. trade countermeasures  will be removed when China resumes rare earths exports to the U.S. He also said that Trump is ready to

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 554,400 mts  of new crop (2025 corn) and 75,600 mts of 2026 corn  to Mexico . Somebody in Mexico thinks corn is really cheap to be buying that much for future delivery. Mexico’s wheat imports for the 2025/26 season are projected to rise to 6.4 million mts due to its lowest harvest in 30 years. Current season import estimates are at 5.2 million mts. The U.S. remains the primary supplier with a share of about 73%, follow

Tidbits Pro Farmer reports: Some yield concerns  are cropping up in Brazil , with some later-planted safrinha corn facing an increased stress in drier biased areas, most notably in center-west areas.   For anyone watching our daily rain day charts that is no surprise. The first three locations are Brazil’s safrinha corn area and the dry season clearly started the first week in May. The dry season usually means no rain. Imagine what a corn field looks like if planted in sandy

Tidbits From 19 February to 28 April, July corn lost 10¢ versus December corn. From 28 April to 13 May, the spread of July corn to December lost another 31½ cents! Yesterday, July corn gained 3½¢ on December corn, which is a huge change in direction.   From harvest until deep into the spring, when old crop prices lose on new crop prices, that is a bearish indicator, even in an up market. The opposite is also true. We should have shown more respect for what that spread was tel

Tidbits The U.S. crude oil  inventory increased by 4.29 million barrels in the reporting week ending 9 May, a sharp reversal from the prior week's 4.49 million-barrel draw, according to the American Petroleum Institute. The markets expected a 2.4 million-barrel decline. None-the-less, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were up $1.72 a barrel yesterday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday morning reported the annual inflation  rate at the retail level decline

Highlights OPEC+  members were scheduled to meet Monday, but the members decided to meet yesterday to discuss the pace of recovering the voluntary production cuts of the past two years, according to Kpler’s Amena Bakr. The virtual meeting’s agenda focused on “consensus building around maintaining the 411,000 barrels per day increased production for June.”   After yesterday’s meeting, OPEC+ announced it would increase crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day starting June 1

Tidbits China ’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will meet with Brazilian authorities in Brazil  this week to discuss food and nutritional security, sustainable agricultural production and climate change, electronic certification of agricultural products and agricultural trade, and logistics infrastructure, according to Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Carlos Fávaro.   Quotes of Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins :   11 April: "Just finished a p

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia