BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day GFS run showed a slightly wetter Delta and a slightly drier Argentina. Last evening’s GFS run predicted western Central Wisconsin into Minnesota will get 6 to 7 inches (15.5 to 18 cm) of rain by June 23rd. the far west of Kentucky and Tennessee will get 9 to 11 inches of rain. Central Illinois slated for 1 to 2.3 inches Temperatures in the majority of the US are expected to be normal to below normal for the next 10 days, with rain expected twic

When to lock-in Soft Red Winter Wheat Basis For the past 15 to 20 years, the firmest basis for new crop soft red winter wheat has been two weeks before the local harvest begins. We really do not know why that is, but it is true for the vast majority of the past two decades. Unless you are going to store soft red winter wheat on the farm until the corn and bean harvest is complete, get that soft red winter wheat basis locked-in two weeks before harvest in your area begins. A

Rolling Basis Contracts: The Math A May basis contract needs to be rolled or priced by the close of business Thursday. We recommend all corn and bean basis contracts be rolled to July. Here is how it is done: Your merchandiser maintains a long (buy) futures position in the May contract. That long position can only be liquidated by selling May futures to offset the long position (previous May futures buy). To maintain a long position in the futures market, a July contract (or

Highlights The stock value of First Republic Bank (FRB) slid to an all-time low yesterday after S&P Global lowered FRB’s credit rating for the second time in a week. FRB has moved to the top of the list of “most likely to fail” banks after Credit Suisse was absorbed by Switzerland’s largest bank. FRB was second on that list the day SVB was closed by regulators. Since then, FRB has been extended quite a few “lifelines” and should be much less likely to fail now than it was on

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 31,909.64, -1,481.33 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $76.68, -3.17. The Dollar Index settled at 104.64, +0.11. The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,424, +213 for the week. Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week. Corn May futures at $6.17¼, -23½¢ for the week. December futures at $5.57¾, -13¼¢ for the week. Basis (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May futures) (Fu

Highlights There is no consensus as to how many of Argentina's acres were damaged or how many mts were lost. We will get hundreds of reports and estimates in the coming week. The bigger issue is drought in Argentina. Today President Putin will reveal to Russia’s elite his plans of the “military operation" in Ukraine. If he is not pulling out of the wear, his speech will be supportive to prices of everything. Tidbits CBOT May beans gapped higher on the opening last evening, up

Highlights The USDA monthly S&D and World Production reports will be issued today at 10 AM Mountain Time. Russian military units are moving into Eastern Ukraine; rumor is February 15th is the day of attack. Last year, it was February 24th. The struggling Indian conglomerate, Adani Enterprises Ltd, stock prices were up 14.64% Tuesday, as the investment world breathed a collective sigh of relief. Tidbits Mexico’s Secretary of Economy said this about US GMO corn imports in 202

Highlights The G7 will cap the price of Russian crude oil effective December 5th and the EU will ban Russian crude oil imports from the same date. That means the EU will lose 2.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil. The ban will be expanded to include oil products on February 5th, which will be tough for the already-tight diesel fuel market in Europe. The G7 has yet to come up with its maximum price allowed under the cap, and EU regulations necessary to navigate the

The first principle of marketing grain is to separate the day one locks-in the basis from the day one locks-in the futures price. Why?...

Basis Contracts: Purpose Math of a Valuable Marketing Tool Basis contracts allow a farmer to deliver grain he cannot store, maintain a...

Highlights On September 10, Kazakhstan will remove export restrictions on wheat and flour it set in May to lower domestic prices. Kazakhstan will produce 13.0 million mt of wheat this year, up from 11.8 million last year. The chairman of the board of Lukoil, Russia’s biggest privately held oil producer and one of the few Russian companies to criticize the invasion of Ukraine, has died after falling out of a hospital window. That is an example of why people who keep their mou

Highlights December corn gapped higher last evening for the third time since the low was made July 22nd. None of the gaps have been filled as of midnight Sunday. Repeated gaps that are not filled are bullish, and more bullish. Take a look at the daily chart: Wayne Bacon has been involved with international grain trade for 59 years and is highly respected by us young guys. His weekly comments on Saturday included this: There were quite a few analysts who stated new crop soybea

Highlights Corn and beans were due for a downturn correction and the Pro Farmer Tour moving into Iowa yesterday was the trigger for profit taking on longs. Afterall, Iowa has more acres of corn and beans than any state and the Iowa weather was perceived to have been better than any where except Wisconsin. Reuters' Ag Reporter, Karen Braun, summed of Iowa's crop this way: Iowa corn yield comes in at 183.81 bu/acre, down 3.6% from last year's tour but even with the 3 yr avg. P

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 133,000 mts of new crop corn to China DTN’s Digital Yield Tour says corn will yield at 167.2 bushels; USDA is at 177.0 and the average estimate for Friday’s USDA production report is 175.9 bushels. DTN Tour see beans at 48.9 bushels; USDA’s at 51.5, average estimate is 51.1 bushels. The first shipload of grain from Ukraine since February arrived in Lebanon yesterday. It was rejected and not allowed to unload. Typi

Time to Make Decisions About Fall Delivery Basis If you know you will have to deliver corn or beans during harvest, you need to make the decision this week whether to set the basis now for fall delivery or roll the dice. Well, actually, if you do not set the fall delivery basis, that decision has better odds of being correct than rolling the dice. First of all, why is this week the week to decide on fall delivery basis? By this week, you have a pretty good idea of what kind

Highlights Russia admitted it fired the missiles into the harbor at Odessa, but they say the target was military infrastructure and that the grain deal still stands. Yesterday afternoon, a UN spokesperson said all parties to the Ukraine Black Sea export deal have confirmed they are still on board even after the missile attack. Ukraine hopes to get the first vessel load of grain on the water this week from Chornomorsk, just south of Odessa. Cargill and Continental Grain Com

The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 34,058.75, down 20.43 points for the week. Crude oil was at $92.08 late Friday, up 51 cents...

Roger Wright joins FarmProgress.com webinar for a live marketing discussion. He'll explore the idea of separating the pricing of the...