Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Highlights Naomi Blohm of West Bend, WI is a Senior Market Advisor, commodity broker, speaker, with Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson. Late yesterday morning, she posted on Twitter, now “X”: "Iowa friends, please tell me about your corn basis... two clients called in to tell me about sudden, drastic improvement of cash corn prices in their neighborhoods." Responses were: NE IA, elevators all saying they won't be filled. No piles. Feed mill manager said farmers bins wer

Highlights Crop progress: The nation’s corn crop is 45% harvested, 3% ahead of the 5 year average; the market expected 46%. The beans are 62% harvested, 10% ahead of the average; market expected 57%. Cotton is 33% harvested, 1% ahead of the normal harvest pace. Winter wheat is 68% planted, a perfectly normal pace. You can access all the crop condition and state by state progress at grainstats.com The NOPA September soybean crush was reported midday yesterday to be 165.456 mi

Politics Not a word about Ukraine’s corruption and its links with US political figures the past 24 hours. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is the leading candidate for the Speaker position and he said he is against Ukraine aid. The war will not continue very long without US aid. If the war ends, is that bearish or bullish wheat and corn? In the first year or two, it will depend on how well the two enemies can work together to get everything up and running. About half of the House Rep

Basis Decision The cash price paid to farmers is a function of futures and basis. You need to separate the day you price them because the...

Highlights The world markets were really shaken by Fitch’s lower credit rating for the USA government. For a hundred years, America has been the beacon of all that is solid, successful, and reliable. A lower credit rating only happens to poorly managed entities. Yep, America is, in fact, a poorly managed entity. Putin and Turkey’s President Erdogan purportedly will discuss a revival of the export corridor. That news may have pressured corn and wheat even more than the down-

Highlights Russia announced yesterday morning US time that they would not renew the Grain Corridor Deal. The reaction in the corn and wheat was the typical “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.” The rumor was Russia would not renew the deal. Traders bought wheat and corn based on the rumor of less corn and wheat available to the world marketplace. When the non-renewal was confirmed, it was already priced into the market. Again, another example of "the expectation of an event will

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 33,734.88, -672.72 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $73.67, +3.22. The Dollar Index settled at 102.27, -0.65. The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,009, -82 points for the week. Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week. Corn September futures at $4.87¼, -1¼¢ for the week. December futures at $4.94½, -½¢ for the week. Basis (U = September; e.g. 10U means 10¢ over September

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 34,407.60, +680.17 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $70.45, +0.95. The Dollar Index settled at 102.92, +0.05. The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,091, -149 points for the week. Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week. Corn September futures at $4.88½, -96¼¢ for the week. December futures at $4.94¾, -93¼¢ for the week. Basis (U = September; e.g. 10U means 10¢ over Septem

Highlights It will be very hot this week in the crop areas of China with temperatures in Shandong and Hebei provinces expected to be over 104°F (40°C). Direct from the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website: "The sea surface temperature (SST) began rising in March 2023 and has exceeded the maximum values for the last 42 years here in June. The likelihood that 2023 will be: The hottest since 1850: 28% Top 10 hot years since 1850: 99% The reason is th

Highlights The Tech Guy did a great job updating the weather situation with his mailing to his blog followers last evening. If you missed it, read it at: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/tech-guy-weekend-comments-6-18-23 The Bank of China has been on an easy money policy for months to stimulate the economy. Tomorrow morning their time (10 PM Eastern Time today), the interest rate is expected to be reduced by 10 basis points (one tenth of one percent). The easier the mo

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day GFS run showed a slightly wetter Delta and a slightly drier Argentina. Last evening’s GFS run predicted western Central Wisconsin into Minnesota will get 6 to 7 inches (15.5 to 18 cm) of rain by June 23rd. the far west of Kentucky and Tennessee will get 9 to 11 inches of rain. Central Illinois slated for 1 to 2.3 inches Temperatures in the majority of the US are expected to be normal to below normal for the next 10 days, with rain expected twic

When to lock-in Soft Red Winter Wheat Basis For the past 15 to 20 years, the firmest basis for new crop soft red winter wheat has been two weeks before the local harvest begins. We really do not know why that is, but it is true for the vast majority of the past two decades. Unless you are going to store soft red winter wheat on the farm until the corn and bean harvest is complete, get that soft red winter wheat basis locked-in two weeks before harvest in your area begins. A

Rolling Basis Contracts: The Math A May basis contract needs to be rolled or priced by the close of business Thursday. We recommend all corn and bean basis contracts be rolled to July. Here is how it is done: Your merchandiser maintains a long (buy) futures position in the May contract. That long position can only be liquidated by selling May futures to offset the long position (previous May futures buy). To maintain a long position in the futures market, a July contract (or

Highlights The stock value of First Republic Bank (FRB) slid to an all-time low yesterday after S&P Global lowered FRB’s credit rating for the second time in a week. FRB has moved to the top of the list of “most likely to fail” banks after Credit Suisse was absorbed by Switzerland’s largest bank. FRB was second on that list the day SVB was closed by regulators. Since then, FRB has been extended quite a few “lifelines” and should be much less likely to fail now than it was on

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 31,909.64, -1,481.33 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $76.68, -3.17. The Dollar Index settled at 104.64, +0.11. The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,424, +213 for the week. Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week. Corn May futures at $6.17¼, -23½¢ for the week. December futures at $5.57¾, -13¼¢ for the week. Basis (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May futures) (Futures p

Highlights There is no consensus as to how many of Argentina's acres were damaged or how many mts were lost. We will get hundreds of reports and estimates in the coming week. The bigger issue is drought in Argentina. Today President Putin will reveal to Russia’s elite his plans of the “military operation" in Ukraine. If he is not pulling out of the wear, his speech will be supportive to prices of everything. Tidbits CBOT May beans gapped higher on the opening last evening, up

Highlights The USDA monthly S&D and World Production reports will be issued today at 10 AM Mountain Time. Russian military units are moving into Eastern Ukraine; rumor is February 15th is the day of attack. Last year, it was February 24th. The struggling Indian conglomerate, Adani Enterprises Ltd, stock prices were up 14.64% Tuesday, as the investment world breathed a collective sigh of relief. Tidbits Mexico’s Secretary of Economy said this about US GMO corn imports in 202

Highlights The G7 will cap the price of Russian crude oil effective December 5th and the EU will ban Russian crude oil imports from the same date. That means the EU will lose 2.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil. The ban will be expanded to include oil products on February 5th, which will be tough for the already-tight diesel fuel market in Europe. The G7 has yet to come up with its maximum price allowed under the cap, and EU regulations necessary to navigate the

The first principle of marketing grain is to separate the day one locks-in the basis from the day one locks-in the futures price. Why?...

Basis Contracts: Purpose Math of a Valuable Marketing Tool Basis contracts allow a farmer to deliver grain he cannot store, maintain a...