When to lock-in Soft Red Winter Wheat Basis
For the past 15 to 20 years, the firmest basis for new crop soft red winter wheat has been two weeks before the local harvest begins. We really do not know why that is, but it is true for the vast majority of the past two decades. Unless you are going to store soft red winter wheat on the farm until the corn and bean harvest is complete, get that soft red winter wheat basis locked-in two weeks before harvest in your area begins.
A big mistake is thinking the wheat basis will firm after the harvest glut, so farmers often put the soft red winter wheat in the farm bins. That is a big mistake for Corn Belt locations because during the latter part of August and early September, every Corn Belt elevator and farmer will be emptying their bins to make room for corn and beans and the wheat basis will be at its weakest point of the year. The millers will get filled during harvest and topped-off in late August; then nobody will want soft red winter wheat until November or December.