BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

The numbers were: Negative Corn and Soybeans Neutral Wheat    CBOT 30 Minutes After Report Dec corn +1 Nov beans +6 July CBOT wheat -3...

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits CBOT grain and oilseed markets  are usually lower the two to four days before the USDA releases its monthly S&D. Yesterday, everything except bean oil was lower after being lower on Tuesday. Typically, prices reach a price low enough that some of the shorts (traders who sold before they buy) decide to take some profit and liquidate their short position by buying futures which results in a very modest rally the day before the S&D. The September S&D will be issued at 10

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or

Tidbits Economy: Yesterday’s news that shocked the financial markets was the number of new jobs reported by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics for the 12 months ending in March 2025 was actually 911,000 less. This news comes after last week’s report that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years. The revision means nonfarm payroll gains averaged about 71,000 per month, instead of the reported 147,000

Tidbits The U.S. House Agriculture Committee  plans to pass a five-year reauthorization of USDA’s grain inspection program, updating the United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act (expiring Sept. 30) to promote new technology, including a requirement for USDA to prioritize adopting improved grain grading tech and an exemption of equipment and tech costs from the 30% cap on administrative expenses; NGFA's Mike Seyfert calls it a “must-pass” for the grain value chain, wh

Tidbits Harvest:  There were many more areas in the Corn Belt than we expected that started harvest this weekend. The early yield results were reported to be less than expected, even areas where the weather was considered quite good, such as Northwest Iowa. Maybe the better-than-expected yields, if any, did not get reported. Of course, the worst yields for the 2025 crop will be the early harvest acres given the August weather.         The Corn Belt weather for the next two we

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 45,401, -144 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $61.97, -2.04. Dollar Index  settled at 97.736, -0.12. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,979, -46. Corn December futures settled at $4.18, -2¼¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = December; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over Dec futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash

Tidbits Crude oil:  OPEC is meeting today to consider another round of production increases reflecting their expectation demand for crude oil will increase into the first part 2026 at the least. However, the EIA, most international banks, and consulting firms predict a crude oil surplus with expecting crude oil to go to $50 later this year.   Interest rate:  On Friday morning, there was a sudden change in probability of an interest rate change for the next Fed meeting on 16 a

Tidbits December corn  made a new high for “the move” (the uptrend since the contract low on 12 August) by a half cent yesterday at $4.24¾ and then settled at $4.18, down 1¾¢ for the day.         Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced two sales of 2025 crop soybeans to unknown; one of 123,000 mts and the second was 204,620 mts.   U.S. Exports:  The U.S. Census Bureau has the final word on all numbers including grain exports. It released its July export data.   The

Tidbits Yesterday, December corn  opened unchanged at $4.18 (open price) and then traded to $4.14¼ (day low) technical support during the day. Before the close it recovered to $4.21 (day high) and settled at $4.19¾ (close price), up 1¾¢ for the day. Such four prices form a bar or a candle for the chart. Bar/candle charts give you more sense of the trading periods compared to linear charts (where only one price describes a period). We hope you are usually using either bar or c

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 185,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to the Philippines. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 620,000 barrels last week after a 970,000 barrel decline the previous week. The market expected a 3.4 million-barrel drawdown. S&P Global PMI  reports: Russia composite (includes manufacturing and services) PMI: 49.1 vs 47.5 expected Russia services PMI: 50.0 vs 48.3 expected Great Britain composite PMI: 53.5 vs 53.0

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or

Tidbits Frost: It is going to be quite chilly tomorrow morning in the Upper Midwest, and, yes, it could frost, but there is no serious threat of a killing frost, but the weather forecast could change. Do not be buying corn futures solely due to frost. Tuesday’s major PMI  reports: Canada manufacturing: 48.3 vs 46.8 expected, S&P Global U.S. manufacturing: 53.0 vs 53.3 expected, S&P Global U.S. manufacturing: 48.7 vs 48.2 expected, ISM U.S. forces in the Caribbean fired upon a

Tidbits Basis: It has been dry in the Eastern Corn Belt since late July and before that in many places. That means the Ohio River is low and that means the Lower Mississippi is going to be low enough sometime this week that barges will not be able to be completely loaded and that means higher barge rates, weaker basis, which has already been factored into current bids. More than 50% of the water in the Lower Mississippi comes from the Ohio River. Venezuela & Oil: A large buil

Tidbits Soybean crush:  The USDA July soybean crush report will be issued tomorrow. It is expected to be up 7.2% from a year ago at 207.2 million bushels, the largest July crush on record and 5th largest of any month.   India-Pakistan:  More than a million people in Pakistan have been displaced in the Punjab province as the worst flooding there in four decades caused havoc in hundreds of villages and submerged vital grains crops. Torrential monsoon rain and neighboring India'

Tidbits Wheat export:  This wheat marketing year began 1 June. Total export wheat sales for this marketing year stand at 6.5 million mts, up from 5 million mts last year at this point. By wheat class, HRW sales are 2.6 million mts, up from 1.1 million last year, white wheat at 1.3 million mts, up from 1.2 million last year, and SRW export sales at 857,000 mts, up from 804,000 mts last year.   Corn:  A South Dakota client said yesterday he has 21 fields of corn and 16 of them

Tidbits Monday is 1 September, Labor Day. After trade is complete today, no ag commodities will trade until Monday evening. Crude oil will trade normal hours Sunday evening through Monday with a trade date listed as 2 September. Therefore, Monday and Tuesday crude oil trading will both be recorded as one trading day, Tuesday 2 September. The U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q2, up from the 3% estimate, helped by stronger consumer spending and a notable upgrade in bu

Tidbits All September grain futures  positions and September basis contracts must be priced or rolled today before the close. As expected, CBOT contracts were weak yesterday as they usually are a few days before the first notice day for deliveries on futures contracts, which is Friday. Today is a toss-up as far as traditional up or down price day, but first notice day is usually an up day. The Hard Red Winter Wheat futures market made new contract lows each of the past two da

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or