BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Corn is pricing-in: The rain that fell in Argentina over the weekend and the heavy rains expected in the next 10 days. While those rains will save a lot of corn, it will not replace the lost yields. Even USDA reduced the Argentine corn production two weeks ago. Those bushels are not coming back. The anticipation of a big increase in 2025 corn acres from the USDA’s Outlook Forum on Thursday. Everyone has been talking about big 2025 corn acres for months. The expecta

Tidbits Corn was hit hard yesterday by the expected increase in 2025 acres, improved weather in South America, and first notice day for deliveries on March futures, all of which is old news. Improved weather for soybean harvest means more safrinha corn will get planted and Argentina’s dry areas will get a drink, but that does not change the fact the world is short of corn. After Friday’s price decline, we were surprised to see corn so weak yesterday. Soybeans traded to the bo

Tidbits The price of April urea futures  at NOLA has declined $22 per ton since 12 February.      AgFeeds.com/br  reports: "After much complaint and pressure from the productive sector, the federal government found a way to unlock the financing of the 2024/2025 Safra Plan with subsidized credit lines which had been closed Thursday, 20 February. Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced late Friday, 21 February, the opening of an extraordinary credit line of R$4 bill

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 43,428, -1,118.06 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $70.25, -0.32. Dollar Index  settled at 106.64, -0.15. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 981, +189 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.91¼, -5¢ for the week. December futures at $4.75, +2¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over Mar

Highlights Three oil tankers  in the Mediterranean Sea and another in the Baltic Sea, have been damaged by blasts this month. All four had recently loaded crude oil at Russian ports. The causes of the incidents remain unclear, but it appears to be terrorism against Russia. Italy has launched a terrorism investigation after two explosions blew a hole below the waterline of the Greek-operated oil tanker while it was anchored on Saturday off the southern port of Savona-Vado and

Tidbits March options expired  yesterday at the close. Corn and bean prices were lower, which usually happens on the expiration day for options. Next Thursday is the last trading day before first notice day, which means Wednesday and Thursday most likely will be down days for corn and beans and Friday will be an up day.   Argentina’s FOB corn price was down 10¢ a bu. this week for April and May shipments. We might start seeing Argentina competing with U.S. corn in Asia. In Br

Highlights March CBOT options expire today which usually means lower prices. The expected hot weather in Argentina this weekend sent soybeans higher yesterday, but not so much the corn. We think the faint rumors from the New York Times of a Trump trade deal with China boosted soybeans more than weather. Due to high prices, India cancelled the purchase of 70,000 mts of Malaysian palm oil which had been scheduled for delivery March through June. Sunflower oil futures rose above

Highlights President Putin announced yesterday the restoration of U.S. and Russia diplomatic ties  as the peace talks accelerate. Reuters News service confirmed the agreement was reached Tuesday, the first day of the negotiations in Saudi Arabia on ending the war. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered their Argentine corn  production estimate by 1 million mts to 46 million (USDA 50). Corn condition rating this week is down to 16% in good/excellent and up to 49% poor/very p

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, February 18 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $5.02½, +18½¢ since last Tuesday

Highlights Yesterday, Saudi Arabia hosted the first talks between Russia and the U.S. since the start of the war in Ukraine . President Donald Trump commented on their outcome, here are the main points: Trump called the meeting between the U.S. and Russian delegations ‘very good’ and admitted that after it he became ‘much more confident’ in reaching a deal on a settlement in Ukraine; Trump said he was not against sending European troops to Ukraine, but there would be no Ameri

Highlights There were rains of 2.5 to 3.5 inches across a wide area of Argentina’s crop land yesterday and more rain is expected this Sunday through Wednesday next week. AgRural reported yesterday Brazil’s  soybean crop was 23% harvested as of last Thursday, an increase from 15% last week. They say the second crop corn is 36% planted. Ag Resource estimates that 24% of the soybeans have been harvested and about 30% of the second-crop safrinha corn was planted across Brazil as

Tidbits Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate  one million mts to 171 million due to  “surprising harvest progress in central Brazil last week and the anticipation of another good harvest week this week.”   Alê Delara is an agronomist and farmer in the Brazilian state of Paraná in Southern Brazil. Yesterday he said, “Here come the beans! We will probably have the highest productivity here on the farm since we started with soybeans.”   Kory Melby is

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 44,303, -241.26 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $71.06, -2.75. Dollar Index  settled at 108.1, -0.40. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 815, +80 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.96¼, +8¾¢ for the week. December futures at $4.73, +7¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March

Tidbits Agriculture futures markets will not trade until tomorrow evening at normal times. Crude oil will trade normal hours this evening...

Highlights We have reported many times the past year that the world has consumed more wheat than it produced the past four years. Not so anymore. The USDA changed the S&D situation for the 2022-23 marketing year to 789.89 million mts of production and 789.58 million mts of consumption. This marketing year wheat production is projected to be 793.79 million mts and consumption 803.72 million mts. So, this year will be the third consecutive year of reduced carryover and fourth o

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Agriculture futures markets are closed Monday, President’s Day. Highlights Was yesterday’s soybean action  the signal that the market has started to believe the monster soybean crop in Brazil will get harvested? Or was it the tariff threats, the possibility the war in Eastern Europe will soon come to an end, or the sharply lower crude oil reducing the value of bean oil, or something else? In any case, March beans traded lower than any day since 17 January. During the course o

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, February 11 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.84, -10½¢ since last Tuesday.

Highlights The USDA made no changes on the domestic corn and soybean S&D  other than increasing the average price expected to be paid to...

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Friendly Soybeans Slightly Friendly Wheat     10 Minutes After the Report: March Corn -1 March beans -2...