BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Q&A: Soybean Oil Chad asked: "Is soy oil as bullish as what some folks think it could be?"   No. Three years ago this week, May 2022 soy oil futures settled over 90¢ per pound and traded over 91¢. It was happy days for soybean and corn growers as construction had already been booked and many construction projects were well underway to nearly double the U.S soybean crush capacity by 2026 to produce enough soy oil to meet the biofuel demand that would need every bushel of soybe

Tidbits Soybean meal  prices in China and Brazil have been very strong this week. AgrInvest Commodities export trader Eduardo Vanin reports China’s soybean meal inventory is at a seven-year low. The rally was ignited by the report that first quarter feed production in China hit a new record high for the first three months of 2025 which was 7.6 million mts larger than 2024 and 5.4 million larger than 2023 which was the previous record.  Brazil's soybean exports are projected t

Tidbits StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reports NOLA urea values have hit $450 for the first time since the end of 2022. For reference, 2022 ended with December corn prices at $6.00.   South Korean flour mills bought 50,000 mts of milling wheat  from the U.S.   Jordan has issued a tender to buy up to 120,000 mts of milling wheat. The S&P Global Composite (services and manufacturing) Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) for the U.S. was reported at 51.2, down from last mo

Tidbits May options expire  this Friday, April 25th. First notice day for May futures is April 30th. Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday morning he expects the trade war  between the U.S. and China to de-escalate since current tariffs are unsustainable. The market took that to mean that the White House may reverse its decision to place a tariff of 145% on China's imports. Equity markets got another boost when President Trump confirmed he has no plans to remove Federal R

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in order

Tidbits China made several announcements yesterday which show they are going to advance their effort to counter the U.S. trade actions that are forcing China to the negotiation table. China will convene an informal U.N. Security Council meeting on April 23 to accuse Washington of bullying and weaponizing tariffs, according to a document that outlines the key elements of a proposed project, initiative, or program at the United Nations. All 193 U.N. members are invited to atten

"There is just as much additional profit to be made with better marketing as there is with more yield." -Clifford Baughman, 1964; the first vocational agriculture to teach high school students grain marketing.        The highest price for 2025 corn, wheat, and soybeans futures will most likely be made in the next two months. Making any pricing decision is difficult.   Our job is to provide the most important fundamental, technical, and seasonal information for you to make the

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 39,142, -1,070 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $64.45, +2.97. Dollar Index  settled at 99.23, -0.55. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,261, -13 for the week. Corn May futures  at $4.82¼, -8¢ for the week. December futures at $4.66, +2½¢ for the week. Basis   (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May futur

Tidbits China, having a near monopoly on the rare earth metals  industry, has hinted at a stoppage since the first Trump administration. The country produces over 99% of the world’s heavy rare earth metals as well as 90% of rare earth magnets.   What is a rare earth metal? There are 17 so-called rare earth metals that are named not for being rare, but for being extremely difficult and environmentally dangerous to mine and process.   These metals are sometimes turned into powe

Tidbits After handling a record number of ocean freight containers in 2024, containers are stacking up at China ’s ports. Shanghai and Guangdong ports are seeing idle containers that missed the April 9, 2025, U.S. tariff deadline. Virtually no cargo ships were heading to the U.S. from these ports as of mid-April, and factory production in export hubs like Zhejiang and Guangdong has largely been halted.    China’s fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.1% less than

Tidbits The markets are closed today for Good Friday. They will reopen normal times on Sunday. Why have soybean futures been surprisingly firm this month? Canola futures rose above CA$680 per mt yesterday, up $120 since 17 March, as tightening supplies compounded with robust global demand for vegetable oils spurred the rally. China’s 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal and oil makes canola seed exports to the U.S. very important for Canadian farmers. The U.S. is Canada’s top

Tidbits There was some progress with China yesterday. China stated it wants to see a number of steps from Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to  trade talks , including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump's cabinet. China’s leadership wants the U.S. to appoint a point person for talks with China’s top trade negotiator. California on Wednesday filed a lawsuit seeking to block U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23.Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, April 1

Tidbits The Chinese economy  expanded at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, keeping the same pace as in the 4th quarter of 2024. The market expected a slower pace of expansion of just 5.1%. China’s economic annual growth rate is the strongest in 1½ years.   Manufacturing sales in Canada rose 0.2% in February to CA$72 billion; the market expected a decline of 0.2%. February was the fifth consecutive month of increases and the highest level of sales since Sept

Tidbits The markets will be closed on 18 April, Good Friday. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Japan. USDA's second Crop Progress  report had spring wheat now at 7% planted, corn at 4%, soybean at 2%. Winter wheat conditions fell slightly to 47% good or excellent. The USDA on Monday said it had canceled a $3 billion program for climate-smart farming  projects after a review found it did not align with the priorities of the Trump

Tidbits China ’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will meet with Brazilian authorities in Brazil  this week to discuss food and nutritional security, sustainable agricultural production and climate change, electronic certification of agricultural products and agricultural trade, and logistics infrastructure, according to Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Carlos Fávaro.   Quotes of Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins :   11 April: "Just finished a p

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 40,213, +1,898 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $61.48, -0.84. Dollar Index  settled at 99.78, -3.11. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,274, -215 for the week. Corn May futures  at $4.90¼, +30¢ for the week. December futures at $4.63½, +16¾¢ for the week. Basis   (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May f

Tidbits China  bought a weekly record 60 ship loads of Brazil’s soybeans  this past week, boosted by robust farmer sales and better profit margins of China crushers. More than 5.2 million mts were sold.   Corporate China spent years living by the 996 rule: work 9 AM to 9 PM six days a week. Now, companies are beginning to ease off because of the potential loss of the American markets.   A highly unusual personnel move in the upper ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ha

Highlights The U.S. Dollar Index  closed yesterday at the lowest level since April 2022. A lower dollar makes U.S. products more competitive in the world marketplace.   The 12 month U.S. Producer Price Index  (PPI) was reported yesterday morning at 2.7% versus 3.2% the previous month; the market expected 3.3%. For the month of March, the PPI was a negative 0.4%, versus +0.1% in February; the market expected +0.2% for March. PPI is the measure of inflation at the wholesale lev

Highlights The biggest news piece from yesterday’s S&D was the USDA increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. As many expected, the corn for feed was reduced by 25 million bushels, so the carryout was reduced by 75 million bushels, which took the carryout from a 37 day supply to a 35 day supply. The market expected a 30 million bushel reduction in the corn carryout. USDA did not change any of the corn or soybean production numbers for Brazil, Argentina, or Paraguay. Stud