BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

The numbers were: Very Friendly to Bullish Corn Neutral to Unfriendly Soybeans Neutral Wheat Every corn number on the report was less...

Tidbits At 11 AM Central today, the USDA will issue its monthly S&D. Yesterday, we sent the July S&D estimates , but for the 2024 S&D, not for 2025! We humbly apologize. Here are the estimates for today’s report from USDA (note the U.S. carryout projection for old and new crop corn are both slightly less than the June carryout numbers): CONAB increased its corn production forecast for Brazil by 3.72 million mts to a record 131.97 million mts (USDA 130), with the safrinha crop

Tidbits Estimates for USDA’s S&D  to be released tomorrow at 10 AM Mountain Time: CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) later this morning will release its revisions for Brazil’s crop production estimates.   All products from Brazil  imported to the U.S. will have a 50% tariff  separate from Sectoral Tariffs (specific product tariffs), effective 1 August, as President Trump announced yesterday in an open letter to Brazil’s president. Brazil’s President Lula responded he will use the tariff r

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in ord

Tidbits The number of predicted rain days for the Corn Belt were up again yesterday morning and most of Western Iowa received ½ to 1½ inches (12-38 mm) of rain yesterday. When it rains in Iowa in July, corn and bean prices will decline. Furthermore, CBOT prices typically decline until 1 to 2 days before a major USDA report and then recover a modest amount the day or two before the report. The July USDA S&D will be issued Friday.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sal

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 44,829, +1,009 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $66.5, +1.43. Dollar Index  settled at 96.99, -0.26. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,436, -85. Corn September futures  settled at $4.20¼, +8¾¢ for the week. Then -17¢ on Monday December futures settled at $4.32¾, +5¾¢ for the week. Basis   (U

Tidbits Last evening’s sharply lower opening for corn, beans, and wheat was expected by some while others expected a steady to better opening at the worst. The National Weather Service has the Corn Belt looking less favorable for crops and demand for U.S. origin grains looks strong as the dollar continues to decline and Brazil’s real strengthens. The ban on non-North American produced feedstocks for U.S. biofuels tax credits and subsidies beginning in 2026 is the most bullish

Tidbits Since the CFTC did not release its Commitment of Traders Report (changes in open interest) on the 4th of July, our Weekly Basis Report  will be issued Tuesday morning after the COT is released Monday afternoon after the market closes.      The weather forecast and trade negotiations can change dramatically in less than an hour, but it appears the CBOT  will have a good mix of bullish and bearish news when it opens this evening. Soybeans would appear to be the upside l

Tidbits The budget bill signed into law by President Trump yesterday afternoon has significant updates to the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Here is the status based on available information we have gleaned from multiple sources and is not yet official until the bureaucrats say it is: Extension of the Credit:  Section 45Z credit is extended through December 31, 2029, which financially supports the production of low-carbon transportation fuels, including biodiesel a

Tidbits The House of Representatives passed the senate version of the Budget Bill  by a vote of 218 to 214. The National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman, Jr. issued the following statement in response: “The Budget Bill Act contains several important and longstanding priorities for corn growers, including the extension of key tax provisions and investments in commodity and trade promotion programs. Corn growers have been pushing for many of these improvement

Tidbits In observance of  Independence Day , the Grains at the CME and MIAX will close at their normal time on Thursday, July 3rd. Then they will be closed Thursday night and Friday. They will reopen the night of Sunday, July 6th as usual. The White House announced yesterday morning a trade deal with Vietnam  had been reached, which had been expected. Trump is expected to close several trade deals prior to the July 9 deadline.   Why were corn, wheat, and beans markets so stro

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in ord

Tidbits The U.S. Senate passed its version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act , a ten-year fiscal package which would serve as the vehicle for fulfilling President Donald Trump’s campaign promises on tax cuts and border security. Vice-President Vance cast the tie-breaking vote after all Democrat and three Republican senators voted “No” on the measure: Sens. Rand Paul, Thom Tillis, and Susan Collins. The bill will now go back to the House of Representatives, which will accept o

Highlights The USDA Grain Inventory and Actual Planted Acreage  Reports were so absolutely neutral, that the biggest news of the day from USDA was the corn crop conditions added 3% this past week to the top two condition categories after losing 2% a week ago. Soybean crop condition ratings were unchanged. Corn stocks were less than a year ago and almost as expected. Of the remaining old crop corn, 2.556 billion bushels (3.026 a year ago) were still on the farm and 2.087 billi

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Unfriendly Old Crop Soybeans Friendly New Crop Soybeans Unfriendly Wheat 15 minutes after the report:...

Tidbits At 11 AM Central Time today the USDA will release the most important reports of the year. The Grain Stocks report will set the wheat carryover for old crop and the carryin for the new crop marketing year. Those numbers will never change significantly and are unlikely to change at all. The stocks reported for corn and soybeans will be what we have left for the last three months of the corn and soybean marketing years. It will give us a good idea of what the old crop ca

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 43,819, +1,612 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $65.07, -8.97. Dollar Index  settled at 97.25, -1.52. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,521, -168. Corn July futures  settled at $4.17½, -11¼¢ for the week. December futures settled at $4.27, -14¼¢ for the week. Basis   (N = July; e.g. 10N means

Tidbits Canada’s  new tax targets U.S. tech firms. In response, the Trump Administration has broken-off tariff  and trade negotiations and will set a new tariff rate on Canadian goods this week.   Trump is planning executive orders to boost energy  supply to power U.S. expansion of artificial intelligence.   Bio Fuel  Consultant Corey Lavinsky reported Saturday afternoon that the Senate’s updated biofuel amendment proposal was good news for small biodiesel facilities, which h

Tidbits It has been a very dry year for Nebraska , but South Central Nebraska sure did not need all 7 inches of rain (18cm) it received yesterday according to 247AG. Note the rainfall map:  CHS reported yesterday morning U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick said the U.S. and China  signed an agreement on Tuesday that formalizes an understanding that U.S. trade countermeasures  will be removed when China resumes rare earths exports to the U.S. He also said that Trump is ready to

Tidbits Every month the USDA issues a Cold Storage Report . They are usually not significant for grains, but Wednesday’s report showed all but one of the food categories in the nation’s commercial freezers are substantially less than a year ago: red meat down 4%; beef down 1%; pork down 7% including bellies down 26% (just before BLT season), cheese down 2%, and butter down 5%. Only American cheese inventory was up, 5% more than a year ago. “American cheese” is a distinct prod