All NATO members were ordered to support the effort to deter Russian aggression of Ukraine with money and military supplies. Germany said “No”. When a country’s homes and businesses are run on Russian natural gas, that is what happens. The fact that US troops and military hardware in Western Europe has kept the peace there for 77 years, longest peace time in European history, is not appreciated and no longer needed. Which US President warned Western Europe that buying natural gas from Russia was a national security failure? Yep, that would be Donald Trump. The world's leading Black Sea wheat market analyst, Andrey Sizov reports today:
We predicted this (wheat) rally but now it looks very unsustainable as the risks of actual grain export disruption remain low.
I take that to mean he does not think the wheat trade to be impacted by war.
Dr Cordonnier left his Argentine bean production unchanged at 43 million mt. He said recent rains, if followed by consistent showers in the coming two months, may stop the decline in production, but there is no chance of increased yield. The soybeans are rated 27% poor/very poor, 43% fair, and 30% good/excellent. He did reduce Paraguay’s bean production another million mt to 6 million. That is down 5 million mt from two months ago. Paraguay will probably lose another 1 to 2 million mt in the coming month. Those folks can’t catch a sprinkle.
China’s May corn Dalian Futures is the equivalent of US$11.02 per bushel on the close yesterday.
Today, China offered at auction state reserves of soybeans with 79.49% of the offered beans were sold, which was 19,387 tons or
A private group of agronomists conducted a crop tour in Brazil. They claim Brazil’s soybean crop could be below 130 million mt and maybe even below 125 million mt.
Originally Rio Grande do Sol was estimated to have a bean crop of 21 million mt. Now the latest estimate is 11 million.
Russia’s world market share of:
Urea - 14%
UAN - 27%
DAP/MAP - 11%
Russia and Belarus represent around one-third of global potash operating capacity. Maybe this fertilizer situation is more important to the world than wheat prices in case of war between Ukraine and Russia.
The February Tampa ammonia contract price was agreed between Yara and Mosaic at $1,135 per ton CFR, up $20 over January. About the same increase as in the Black Sea area.
Gulf basis levels for corn were up 5 cents for January, 2 to 4 cents firmer for February and unchanged for March & April. The Gulf soybean basis was 5 cents firmer for January, 3 to 4 cents firmer for February, 4 cents firmer for March and unchanged for April. The firmer basis for February and March indicate soybean export demand will continue to be better than previously expected.
This afternoon's news will feature the monthly inflation and easy money update from the Federal Reserve. Some think the Fed may actually raise the discount interest rate today. There is an entire generation of young adults who has never experienced an interest rate increase.
Viterra Limited (Viterra) announced it has agreed to purchase grain and ingredients business of Gavilon Agriculture Investment, Inc. (Gavilon) for $1.125 billion, plus working capital.
Gavilon is based in Omaha, Nebraska and originates, stores and distributes grains, oilseeds, as well as feed and food ingredients, to food manufacturers, livestock producers, poultry processors, soybean processors and ethanol producers worldwide.
Viterra operates a network of agriculture storage, processing and transportation with more than 17,500 employees operating in 37 countries.
This morning at 10 AM Central Time will be a presentation by the Trend and Hedge Club of Kyiv, Ukraine will present a webinar about:
Egyptian Market and the Future Institutional Developments with Ahmed Amin, Senior Trader and Trade Development Manager at Mediterraneo/Konkord UA, Egypt
No charge but you must register at:
https://www.trendhedgeclub.com/event-details/trend-hedge-club-26-01-22/form
ADM reported a record fourth-quarter profit yesterday and said it will continue to cash in on strong demand for crops and biofuel in 2022.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) Crude oil is up 41 cents at $86.01 this morning.
The Dollar Index is trading at 96.06, up 0.11.
March palm oil is at 5,504 MYR, up 65. The contract high was made Monday at 5,509 MYR. Palm oil has 32% and soyoil has 28% share of the world vegetable oil market.
March cotton is up 81 cents per cwt at $121.73. The contract high was made last Wednesday and Thursday at $124.78. Cotton competes with soybeans for acres.
March Natural Gas is up $0.185 at $4.079 per Metric Million Btu. The contract high was made October 6th at $6.132 per MMBtu. Natural gas is the primary input cost of nitrogen fertilizer.
March Oats are down 12½ cents at $6.40. The contract high is $7.78 made November 22nd.
Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, in the heart of Brazil's most productive soybean area, received no rain yesterday; 0.3 inches a year ago and none two years ago (one inch = 24.5 mm). Yesterday's high temperature was 99°F. Day time highs the next ten days will range from 82 to 91°F (100°F = 38°C). Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 110°F with 0 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 82°F with 4.1 inches rain. Salto high temperature 74°F with 1.3 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 1.65 inches 77 to 95°F. Cordoba 1.26 inches 75 to 89°F. Salto 0.21 inches 77 to 92°F. The Eastern Corn Belt has 4 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Western Corn Belt also has 1 less rain day than yesterday. Yesterday's updated ENSO report indicates La Niña will end in 45 to 60 days. That will give normal weather for Brazil's safrinha (second) corn crop and as well as normal weather this spring for the USA.
Explanation of Rain Days
Every day, every place in the world has a ten day weather forecast issued.
By a "place", we mean a Findlay, Ohio; Arcadia, Minnesota; Atlantic, Iowa; Fullerton, Nebraska; Cordoba, Argentina; Craig, Colorado, Saratov, Russia and ten million localities we have never heard of.
The ten day forecast predicts the high and low temperature for each day as well as whether rain is predicted for each of the ten days, likewise cloudy, partly cloudy, sunny, etc.
We look at the ten-day forecast and if we see rain is predicted for 4 of the next 10 days, we record a "4" and that is what is reported to you. It does not matter whether if it is one-hundredth of an inch or 5 inches. We realize the amount of rain is incredibly important expect a few key days of the growing season, which we keep you informed.
Below is the link for the ten-day forecast for Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. At this moment, it predicts rain 10 of the next 10 days. Thus, this morning, we wrote a "10". Of course, we scan the temperatures and the amounts of rain just to see if anything is getting way out of the norm. By the time you click on this link, the number of days expected to see rain very well may be different than now.
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/ICAMPO37