Rain Days & Tidbits 01/22/2022

Jeferson Souza is a Fertilizer Analyst at Agrinvest Commodities. He reported yesterday:

Urea prices are in free fall. I see FOB offers below $600 per mt and today, a trade has been reported at $600 CFR, down nearly $290 per mt in just 50 days.

CFR = Cost of product plus freight. CIF = Cost of product, cargo insurance, and freight,

Bloomberg reported last evening that wholesale urea prices in the Corn Belt dropped 8.2% yesterday… not for the week, 8.2% yesterday to an average of $675 per ton.

On Thursday, corn basis at the Gulf was up 8 cents to +102H ($1.02 above the March futures price) for the spot market, steady yesterday as were beans at +115H.

Eduardo Vanin is a world soybean market “big picture” analyst based in Brazil. He reported yesterday:

Chinese numbers show 10.8% increase growth in retail sales of vegetable oil over a year ago, food and beverages. However, China is processing (crushing) less soybeans and buying more vegetable oil.

Indonesia announced today a six month palm oil export restriction beginning Monday, yes, January 24. The amount of the restriction was not announced. Malaysia announced a 50% quota severa, months ago.

USA soybean meal exports year to date are higher than any time in many years. I will have to check, but maybe 5 years.

Russia-US held talks in Geneva yesterday did not lead to any noticeable progress but were not a disaster as well.

Yesterday morning USDA announced export sales:

132,000 mt of old crop soybeans to China

247,800 mts of old crop corn to unknown destinations

A family that has planted 450 hectares (1,112 acres) of irrigated rice in Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil) since 1962 and usually harvests more than 12 tons per hectare, for the first time in history, is having to abandon a crop. Not enough water. La Niña at work.

The Lunar New Year starts February 1st. All of Asia will be shut down for a week to ten days.

Yesterday’s Cattle on Feed Report was bearish cattle, friendly corn:

On Feed January 1st 101% of a year ago

Placements in Dec 106%

Fed Marketings Dec 100%

This is the second highest Jan 1 inventory since the series began in 1996.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) Crude oil is down 72 cents yesterday at $84.83.

The Dollar Index finished at 95.64, down 0.01.

As we reported yesterday morning, March palm oil made another new contract high at 5,460 MYR and finished the day at 5,453, up 127 MYR,18% stronger than the 2021 contract high made in May. Palm oil has 32% and soyoil has 28% share of the world vegetable oil market.

Soybean oil was up 7.8% the past four business days.

March cotton was down $2.12 per cwt at $120.75. The contract high was made Wednesday and matched Thursday at $124.78. Cotton competes with soybeans for acres.

March Natural Gas was up $0.133 at $3.782 per Metric Million Btu. The contract high was made October 6th at $6.132 per MMBtu. Natural gas is the primary input cost of nitrogen fertilizer.

March Oats were down 18 cents at $6.23. The contract high is $7.78 made November 22nd.

Rondonópolis (one inch = 24.5 mm, 100°F = 38°C)

Rainfall yesterday was zero.

0.4 inch a year ago

0.4 in two years ago.

Yesterday's high temperature was 93°F.

Day time highs the next ten days will range from 85 to 96°F.

Fewer rain days in the 10 day forecast means better harvest weather for the majority of Brazil's bean areas.

Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America:

Santa Maria high temperature 110°F with no rain.

Cordoba high temperature 90°F with 0.1 inch rain.

Salto high temperature 84°F with 0.4 inch. rain.

The rainfall the past three days in these areas was certainly much less than predicted for the past ten days.

Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days:

Santa Maria 0.98 inches 79 to 103°F

Cordoba 4.55 inches 76 to 92°F

Salto 3.35 inches 79 to 91°F

The Eastern Corn Belt has 1 less rain day than yesterday in the 10 day forecast. The Western Corn Belt also has 1 less rain day in the 10 day forecast.

Yesterday's Weekly Export Sales Tracker: