Yesterday’s reversal from weak to firmer grain futures prices were (apparently) due to the strong bounce of crude oil. A crude oil refinery in Saudi Arabia was bombed, and was the likely reason crude oil turned higher and pulled the grains along with it.
If a refinery is knocked out of action, that is bullish refined products and bearish crude oil. It is like when a packer shuts down, live cattle get cheap and beef gets expensive. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect a softer opening Sunday night, everything else being more or less equal.
The war reports are pretty much the same. The Russians and Ukrainians are still in "negotiations" but no progress is being made as both sides are demanding the other side stop shooting before serious negotiations will begin.
Odessa is located in the extreme southeast area of Ukraine and is, by far, the primary grain export port of Ukraine and probably the entire Black Sea. There has been some ship to ship gunfire near the port off and on the past four weeks, but the port itself has not been fired upon. Both sides want to preserve the port’s ability to load ships after the war to sell about 14 million mt of corn and the same tonnage of wheat.
If the port is even moderately damaged, it probably will take the rest of 2022 to repair the damage before the grain can be loaded.