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Highlights, ENSO, Ukrainian NG & Oil, Markets & Rain Days Update 6/21/22


CBOT corn and beans opened lower last night probably because a bit more rain in the 8 to 14 day forecast. There is a lot of hot and dry weather between now and then with two crop progress reports, the first one this afternoon. People in a position (business and government) to know what they are talking about say gasoline prices will be down to $4.75 within a month or less. Some of the more intelligent Democrats realize if gasoline prices do not decline sharply before November, there will not be many political jobs for Democrats in 2023. Since the Black Sea Area (The Bread Basket of the World), will be the site for a war for possibly two more springs, we need to rethink those wheat puts. In any case, if you have wheat puts, keep them for now, but do not add to them. Economists estimate that the probability of the United States entering a recession is at “44% in the next 12 months, a level usually seen only on the brink of or during actual recessions,” according to a survey from The Wall Street Journal released over the weekend. Germany announced it is restarting coal fired generating plants to reduce natural gas consumption.


It has been known by “everyone” for 100 years that Eastern Ukraine had a lot of coal and some crude oil.

One of our long-time clients had an unexpected conversation with a private government contractor at a wedding in Virginia. The contractor has done work for the US Government all over the world, but he would reveal very little information about his work or his employer. But he did say British Petroleum (BP) began exploring for oil in Eastern Ukraine in 2012 and they found a very large oil and gas field. The contractor said that oil and gas is what the Ukraine and Russia fighting is all about and the war will continue for 18 to 24 months.

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