The weather forecast is less settled this morning than yesterday morning. The forecasts for the first week in July range from hot and dry to cool and wet for the Midwest. Overall, the weather looks less favorable for crops than it did yesterday. After Thursday Actual Planted Acreage, Quarterly Grain Inventory and the season's first wheat production estimate based upon field surveys, weather is the only thing that will matter to the market.
Be advised technicians believe the market tells us what the market thinks the weather will do before the forecasters predict it. Nothing is 100% in this business, but no one in our organization will criticize technical analysis or ignore it. Probably 95% of all grain traders are technicians, so pay attention to The Tech Guy's stuff.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its world corn production estimate by 6 million mt (236 million bushels or 0.5%) to 1.19 billion mts. IGC left their wheat estimate unchanged at 769 million mt.
Three months ago today spot crude oil futures price was $112. Now, spot crude futures price is about 9% lower, but gasoline futures price is up 18% and heating oil futures price is up 15%. In part, the reason for that paradox, as we have mentioned several times before, is because refining capacity has been reduced significantly since 2019.