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Fertilizers, Harvest, Russia-Ukraine, Market Data & Rain Days 02/26/2022

Daily Updates


Even though the leadership of Ukraine asked Putin for terms of surrender Friday morning, many Ukrainian soldiers are refusing to give-up the ghost… it always happens. It is very difficult to go from “all out kill or be killed” mode to “surrender” mode just because some politician tells you to do so. Therefore, sporadic fighting continues, but the combatants are just wasting their lives.

 

Fertilizers

Given so much of the world’s fertilizer comes from Russia and Belarus, fertilizer prices jumped to the moon on Thursday.

Take a look:

April urea AG - +$200 per ton

April urea Egypt - +$240

March/April urea NOLA - +$135

April DAP NOLA - +$90 NOLA = New Orleans, Louisiana barge

June DAP NOLA - +$107.50

NOLA and global urea prices did decline sharply yesterday, but still higher smartly on the week.

 

Harvest

Brazil's Mato Grosso’s soybean harvest is 79% complete; 10% was done the past week. The average pace is 72.2%. Mato Grosso produces about 30% of Brazil’s soybeans and corn. It is about 2.5 times large than Texas.

If you watch the daily rain day chart we send to you, you already know the weather is improving somewhat in the dry areas of South America.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) lowered Argentina’s soybean crop condition to 24% good to excellent, down 7% from last week. The USDA will lower Brazil’s soybean production and probably Argentina’s on the next S&D Report of Wednesday 9 March.

 

Russia has promised China that when they take over Ukraine, China will get the Ukrainian corn already booked for delivery to China.

Soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange made an all-time high Friday at the equivalent of $24.11 per bushel.

 

Cattle on Feed Report yesterday afternoon (% of a year ago):

USDA Expected

On Feed 101 100.7

Placements 99 90.6

Marketings 97 97.1

Delivery Assignments for Monday, February 28th:

# of contracts to date

Corn 0 15 Jun 2021

Soybeans 2 18 Oct 2021

Soymeal 0 22 Dec 2021

Soyoil 28 2 Feb 2022

SRWW 240 7 Oct 2021 about half to strong hands

HRWW 92 31 Dec 2021 strong hands

Oats 0 2 Feb 2022

Some of the above data is bullish and some is bearish. For a translation of the data, go to:

https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/delivery-process-at-the-cbot


 

Market Data


Yesterday: Crude oil settled at $91.94, down 87 cents. The dollar index is at 96.54, down 0.60 July palm oil settled at 5,463 MYR, down 470. The contract high was made Thursday (Feb 24th) at 5,938 MYR. Palm oil owns 32% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share. December cotton settled at $100.33, down 94 cents per cwt. . The contract high was made February, 10th at $106.36 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres. July natural gas settled at $4.578, down 0.171. The contract high was $5.121 at February, 2nd, 2022. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer. July ULSD settled at $2.6634 per gallon, down 0.0437. The contract high was made Thursday (February 24th) at $2.8475. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.


 

Rain Days Update


Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, in the heart of Brazil's most productive soybean area, received 0.1 inches of rain yesterday; 0 inches a year ago and 0 inches two years ago (one inch = 24.5 mm). Yesterday's high temperature was 89°F. Day time highs the next ten days will range from 89 to 94°F (100°F = 38°C). Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 83°F with 0 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 82°F with 0 inches rain. Salto high temperature 99°F with 0 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 2.51 inches, 79 to 95°F. Cordoba 2.07 inches, 74 to 87°F. Salto 2.81 inches, 75 to 88°F. The Western Corn Belt has 3 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 1 less rain days than yesterday.


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