Fertilizers, Gulf Basis, Biofuel, International Cash Flow & Rain Days Update 03/20/2022
Brazil and Argentina are paying US$1,250 per mt CIF (delivered) for MAP.
NOLA (New Orleans, LA) DAP last trade at US$975 per short ton (2,000 pounds) or US$1,075 mt (2204.62 pounds).
Folks connected with the cash corn and bean trade at Gulf export terminals say corn basis will be unchanged to 12 firmer tomorrow morning and bean basis will be unchanged to 13 firmer.
Under its 'B30' mandate, Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, blends 30% palm-oil based fuel into its biodiesel to lower its fuel imports & boost domestic production of palm oil. Sunday’s vegetable oil rumors include Indonesia’s B30 mandate will be reduced to B25 or B20 as Indonesia's goal to develop 100% biodiesel from crude palm oil (CPO) as fuel seems increasingly difficult to reach. High priced food prices are becoming a major obstacle to the expansion of biofuel use.
Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) reported India’s soy oil imports in February 2022 were 32% more than February a year ago. India’s soy oil imports from Nov to Feb were up 74% from the same period a year ago.
Bank to bank transfer records confirm India bought crude oil this weekend from Russia at a discount and exchanged rupees (Indian currency) for rubles (Russia currency). How will the international community respond to India snubbing international sanctions? Keep in mind Europe is still buying Russia natural gas. While Biden says the USA quit buying Russian crude oil a week ago Tuesday, who believes that?
So, it is not a surprise that highly respected Chief Economist of the Global Association of the Financial Industry, Robin Brooks, reported Saturday morning:
Russia's financial conditions are easing and the bite of our sanctions is fading, because Russia's energy exports are constantly generating hard currency inflows, so - even though we blocked foreign exchange reserves, Russia is generating new ones. A Russian energy boycott would stop this...
He produced this chart showing Russia had its best February cash flow in more than 15 years:
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Rain Days Update
Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 74°F with 0.35 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 72°F with 0.04 inches rain. Salto high temperature 74°F with 0 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 2.68 inches, 75 to 85°F. Cordoba 0.06 inches, 67 to 84°F. Salto 0.79 inches, 69 to 81°F.
The Western Corn Belt has 3 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has the same number of rain days than yesterday.
Explanation of Rain Days
Every day, every place in the world has a ten day weather forecast issued many weather services.
By a "place", we mean a Findlay, Ohio; Arcadia, Minnesota; Atlantic, Iowa; Fullerton, Nebraska; Cordoba, Argentina; Craig, Colorado, Saratov, Russia and ten million localities we have never heard of.
The ten day forecast predicts the high and low temperature for each day as well as whether or not rain is predicted for each of the ten days, likewise cloudy, partly cloudy, sunny, etc.
We look at the ten-day forecast and if we see rain is predicted for 4 of the next 10 days, we record a "4" for that location on the chart for the today. It does not matter whether it is one-hundredth of an inch or 5 inches. We realize about half the days expected to receive rain never get rain that day, but we must be consistent in what we report each day and every day because rain makes grain a few key weeks of the growing season. Of course, we scan the temperatures and the amounts of rain just to see if anything is getting way out of the norm.